Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie
I just listened to the Serling fragment of the show.
I was in agreement with most of what he/you had to say, but the thing that I find frustrating and inconsistent with Beyer's numbers is the sometimes adherence to strictly using other races on the card as a barometer, and a sometimes divergence from this when a split variant is used because a race result doesn't meet some earlier preconceived idea of what the race result should be.
Wow, that was a Freddy run on sentence if I've ever seen one.
Anyways, I think this is a pretty cut and dried instance of the second race at that distance being vastly superior to the first, and I don't see why they didn't split it. How much time elapsed between the two races?
Maybe sometimes I don't account for the numbers representing what the winner actually ran, instead of what he could have run had he been asked for more earlier.
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You just dont split the variant if you are making figures. You do it when it makes common sense meaning if the number you come up with doesnt make sense against the other races on card. In this case Beyer is of opinion a 105 was the correct fig and splitting it didnt make sense. He said "we know what AP is by now". I knew the fig he would use immediately after race. Its not hard to do these things after you have a baseline. Again his opinion of AP is that he is NOT a particularly fast colt yet and nothing in his races suggests he has ever run a big fig. Conversely he is of the belief Materialty and Upstart threw it down in the Florida Derby and ran a very fast race. It's possible they did and neither lived to repeat it again