First, let me attach the disclaimer that I am in the financial services business and cannot give advice in this situation (compliance prohibits this). However, in this hypothetical situation there are several things you might want to look at.
First, most mutual funds declare and pay their dividends and capital gains in December. This is declared on a per share basis and has a direct correlation on share price. You can call the mutual fund company and ask them about this. You can also ask them about the price drop. Whoever you are talking to will tell you that they cannot give financial advice but they may have information as to why this "deviation" occured. Also, I do not know this fund specifically, however, are you sure it's a fund that is designed to track the Dow -- as opposed to some other index; for example the S&P 500. A value fund per se might not have it's index or benchmark as the Dow.
Second, December is the month that money managers make two specific moves (just two of many). One thing is that they start to take sell positions in order to recognize and realize their losses (the losses that have been "paper losses" or losses that have been harvested throughout the year). Tax loss harvesting is a very common business practice. One reason they might pulled a trigger on a losing position and might have done this now is due to the "wash" rule (where they sell a stock -- pre-Dec. 31 -- at a loss and then buy the same stock back, say for example, on Jan. 2). The second thing they do is start to make trades in order to "improve" performance (improve their performance on paper). That is probably not what happened here, but depending on the nuances, there might have been some "series" trades here or some offsetting trades (other trades to follow).
On another note, the only way you can be a successful investor is to be a long term investor. Unless you are trading options, commodities, a day trader, then be a long term "partner" or investor in the fund or the company. First, find an excellent one. Not a good one, but a great one. Warren Buffett once said that he wouldn't care if the stock market closed for 20 years. Read some of his stuff. Market timing doesn't work. Buy low and sell high doesn't work. Jumping on the hottest stock or asset class doesn't work. Anyway, this is a discussion for another thread, LOL.
Call the fund company. See what they say. It's going to be rhetoric and nonsense but that's the retail investment game, LOL.
Eric
Last edited by ELA : 12-08-2006 at 09:23 PM.
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