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Old 12-08-2006, 11:02 AM
bellsbendboy
 
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I thought I would offer a summary of yesterdays pick 4 play. Rehashing your bets always improves your capping, and on other sites, it has proven more popular than the pick 4 itself. I will post a 4 once or twice a week on this site and if there is interest, will continue with a rehash.

Race 7) When the turf rail is out "speed is lethal"! Churchill's John Asher told me that many years ago and still, it is a well kept secret. Yesterday the rail was at 20ft and Graham put Scarlet Butterfly on the lead, backed it down, game set match. Robbie seemed to be under orders to track, and his filly has an awful way of going anyway. Eternal Sunshine was a good gamble as any time you get Northern Dance crossed with Majestic Light it is a turf only pedigree. Bet backs...only Eternal and only then with blinkers on.

Race 8) As some of you know I (we) post all my (our) pick 4 bets on a forum somewhere, usually the forum for the track running, if possible. The average bet being about $24 and so far in 2006 we have bagged about twenty of them. The point being there has to be a single somewhere, and yesterday it was here with Jimmy's Boy.

The first six races, all dirt sprints (never use two turn races to evaluate track bias) were the same; well bet, wire to wire, widening winners!! Note the track superintendent floated* the surface, even though there was zero chance of rain! Speed holds very well after and Jimmy was certainly the speed. He broke sharp then was engaged by a hopeless longshot, who then outgamed him down the lane.! On TVG Matt Carrothers, who refuses advice, and loses ninety nine percent of his pick 4's, even with a $48 outlay kept saying that the horse took a double jump in class. Well hello, THERE WAS NO OTHER RACE IN THE CONDITION BOOK FOR THIS HORSE. Although horses can improve radically when claimed this is one case where the horse did not figure. Thank the lord that this seldom occurs. Betbacks depending on class levels.

Race 9) Heart of a Leader is a nice kind of horse earning about ten grand per start and was the most likely winner. The only other possibility was Zetetic and the question was is he fit? On class, Thorograph and even Beyer he seemed lengths the best. Colts and geldings are harder to get fit than fillies and mares and some sire lines are IMPOSSIBLE to get fit off a layoff, and this is one of them. Good single by Bogey who probably went to DRF.com, then workouts, then search. If so, he would have found at least 45 furlongs worked and a polytrack elongated sprint. Easy game! Betbacks the first two finishers if in the right spot.

Race 10) Although I have a fair understanding of Louisiana racing it is embarrassing what I do not know! I can tell you in statebred conditioned claimers you need a good trip and the top four all had that. Power Band being 8-1 was a huge price and he just failed to last. Bobby Belek is a 4yo and he was bumped early but ended up with a perfect trip because of it. He was 4th in his last but that was on the bull ring in Vinton and it was against open horses with the bug on. Bug off, journeyman on, is always a good angle. BBB
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