Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor
I got the sense that his main objective was to discredit my "bet-against" assertion.
Pup's been having a rough go on this board lately lol |
I wasn't trying to discredit your bet against assertion. I was just curious to see what the horse went off at that day. Then when I looked at racereplays and thought he was only 5-1 and ran 2nd, I couldn't figure out how that was a great bet against. But you were right, he was a relatively low price (5-2).
Do I think it is a good angle to bet against half or full brothers to great horses? Do I think it's a good angle to bet against horses out of great mares? It just depends. If I have info that the horse is no good and the horse is getting bet heavily, then the answer is yes. But if I have no info, then I don't think it's a great angle. If a horse is slightly overbet, that's not going to be enough to give you an edge that will overcome the 16% vig. If a horse that should be 3-1 is 2-1, I'm not going to unload on the rest of the field. When Zenyatta's sister (Eblouissnate) made her debut, was she a great bet against? I don't know. I would say probably not. She ended up going off at 7-5 and she won. Was she overbet? She was probably slightly overbet but she was working well and she had more than one sibling that was a grade I winner. In addition, I know Zenyatta won first time out. I can't remember whether Balance (her other sister) won first time out.