Each Derby is its own seperate puzzle, in my estimation. As such, I try to keep an open mind when analyzing it. A look at some recent winners:
Cal Chrome- breaks 52 year old CA bred drought
I'll Have Another- Basically trained up to SA Derby off of one race in February
Animal Kingdom-Unproven on dirt
Mine That Bird- Don't know where to start here
Big Brown 3 starts total leading to Derby
Funnycide- NY bred AND a Gelding!!!
It seems like each year another Derby rule or regulation goes by the wayside,so I like to treat each horse as an individual.
None the less very interesting stast you have there.I actually cashed that odd ball field field Revolution exacta and last year I had the field for all of the wrong reasons, most notably faith in Ria Antonia last year,to complete exacta with Cal Chrome.
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