Quote:
Originally Posted by senator L
THORO-PATTERN Sts Top% Pr% Off% X%
Turf 5 up Oct-Feb: Prev Top 51, Off-Pr-Off (72, 51, 7) 324 4 33 43 20
Trainer Profile - Clement, Christophe
RUNS-BASED TG FIGURE-BASED
StartsWin% ITM% ROI Category Starts Top%Pair% Off% X%
4815 20 53 1.60 Overall 2458 16 40 33 11
2854 28 66 1.58 4-1 or less 1574 15 42 33 10
1422 11 40 1.44 over 4-1 to 10-1 682 15 39 34 12
539 7 24 2.10 over 10-1 202 22 29 33 17
122 16 48 1.09 Last 90 days 79 23 49 20 8
14 29 57 1.57 Last race under 11 days 9 11 56 22 11
1137 23 59 1.67 Last race 11-29 days 788 16 42 32 10
2061 21 55 1.45 Last race 30-89 days 1276 15 41 33 11
883 20 50 1.61 Last race 90+ days 385 16 35 35 14
422 21 52 1.51 2nd race off lay-off 251 19 40 28 12
233 24 58 1.57 3rd race off lay-off 168 16 43 33 8
1194 20 53 1.60 STK 962 11 41 40 9
735 21 56 1.57 5-y-o and up 630 6 41 43 10
5-y-o and up Nov-Jan 89 4 43 42 11
3510 21 53 1.66 Turf 1955 15 42 35 8
267 21 55 1.49 Off tracks (Dirt) 107 21 33 26 20
3517 21 53 1.60 Routes 1891 15 43 34 9
31 19 55 1.55 Adding bandages 22 14 36 32 18
After race 1-4pts off top 107 21 33 26 20
784 19 51 1.68 At GP 319 17 37 36 9
518 24 59 1.73 With Bravo, Joe 268 20 40 32 9
the race I am looking at is R8 Sat gp 1 1/2 La Prevoyante H. Grade III. trf
horse is clearbrook, so those #'s mean, clement is 20% with x % which isn't very good - correct?
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You are correct about the Thor Pattern percentages, but you've got the wrong horse. This is for Tabreed, not Clearbrook. Clearbrook's pattern percentages are even worse.
Basically, Tabreed, based ONLY on the Thoro Pattern percentages, is 37% to run a 5 or better (his top) and 63% to run worse than the 5.
Clearbrook is only 12% to run his top or better (which is a 4), and 88% to run worse than the 4.
I think the Thoro Pattern stats are useful for those new to the product, but hold less value the more versed you are and used to reading the sheets, and seeing patterns for yourself. There are a whole host of variables as to why a horse will run a given number, some of which are foreseeable, and some not.