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Search: Posts Made By: Dunbar
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 05-12-2021, 05:45 AM
Replies: 44
Views: 3,650
Posted By Dunbar
Yes, but I would have thought the same thing with...

Yes, but I would have thought the same thing with the Derby coming right on the heels (hooves?) of all the Charlatan/Gamine publicity.
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 05-05-2021, 10:05 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 1,934
Posted By Dunbar
I lost. I guess to you that means I made a bad...

I lost. I guess to you that means I made a bad bet, right?
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 05-05-2021, 05:18 AM
Replies: 20
Views: 1,934
Posted By Dunbar
:tro:

:tro:
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 04-21-2021, 07:07 AM
Replies: 184
Views: 20,039
Posted By Dunbar
Well said. Still, there are just two potential...

Well said. Still, there are just two potential Derby horses that have shown they can run well in slop: King Fury and Essential Quality. If the track came up wet on May 1, I'd have to give King Fury...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 04-20-2021, 05:55 AM
Replies: 184
Views: 20,039
Posted By Dunbar
Thanks!

Thanks!
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 04-14-2021, 08:15 AM
Replies: 184
Views: 20,039
Posted By Dunbar
You should have first pretended to want to name...

You should have first pretended to want to name her "Bayakoa" or "Zenyatta". After those, Rachel Alexandra would have sounded like a great name!

(Congrats, btw!)
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 03-28-2021, 07:52 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,467
Posted By Dunbar
I have to admit I'm curious whether you're really...

I have to admit I'm curious whether you're really capable of letting me have the last word. I guess we'll see.

I wasted a lot of time on this thread and I regret it. But at least it's made a...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 03-28-2021, 07:39 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,467
Posted By Dunbar
How about all the money that was bet on...

How about all the money that was bet on Collaborate and Greatest Honour BEFORE the Florida Derby was run?! This routinely happens with the Future Wager.
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 03-27-2021, 04:09 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,467
Posted By Dunbar
Okay, so by your definition, a bet is “right”...

Okay, so by your definition, a bet is “right” only if it makes money. The reality is that winning or losing the bet has very little to do with whether you had an edge at the time you made the bet. ...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 03-26-2021, 04:03 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,467
Posted By Dunbar
Please explain how you will evaluate whether I...

Please explain how you will evaluate whether I was "right". Does my bet have to win to be right? If so, we have a very different definition of 'good bet'.

How about if my horse goes off at lower...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 03-25-2021, 12:08 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,467
Posted By Dunbar
Just like any other horse bet, there is...

Just like any other horse bet, there is information to analyze. The time until the race is another variable. Often, adding a new variable is a good thing in betting, especially if you think you...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 03-25-2021, 05:17 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,467
Posted By Dunbar
The flip side is why assume there are not any...

The flip side is why assume there are not any good bets in there? It's parimutual and the takeout is the same as any race at Churchill. Some entries will be overbet and some will be underbet. If...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 03-07-2021, 05:54 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 1,135
Posted By Dunbar
Quite a few of the will-pays are over $10K for a...

Quite a few of the will-pays are over $10K for a $2 bet, including some exactas with the #3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 18, 19, 20, 22, or 23 in the first position. With the current $33K in the pool,...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 03-02-2021, 03:30 AM
Replies: 184
Views: 20,039
Posted By Dunbar
Thank you for doing this Derby prep thread again....

Thank you for doing this Derby prep thread again. It's a handy reference.
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 02-15-2021, 05:28 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,324
Posted By Dunbar
Here are the final odds, to the right of the ML:

Here are the final odds, to the right of the ML:
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 02-15-2021, 05:06 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,324
Posted By Dunbar
I don't bet on All Others with some specific...

I don't bet on All Others with some specific horses in mind. It's a bet that new contenders will emerge from the remaining preps, and also that there is usually some attrition from the current...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 02-14-2021, 07:39 AM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,324
Posted By Dunbar
Going into the final day, with almost 150K in the...

Going into the final day, with almost 150K in the pool, Dream Shake is 32-1 while Prevalence is 12-1.

I noticed that at some point in the evening, All Others dropped from 6-1 to 7-2, before settling...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 02-10-2021, 12:32 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,324
Posted By Dunbar
Gone from the previous Future Wager Pool...

Gone from the previous Future Wager Pool are:

Bezos
Capo Kane
Mutasaabeq
Olympiad
Prate
Prime Factor
Proxy
Spielberg
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 01-25-2021, 05:04 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 950
Posted By Dunbar
The $2 payoffs for the Wipe The Slate/Capo Kane...

The $2 payoffs for the Wipe The Slate/Capo Kane and Wipe The Slate/Prate exactas are $42,283.80 each. The exacta pool was $81,266.74, so there was a total of $3 bet on each of those exactas.
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 01-25-2021, 04:32 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 950
Posted By Dunbar
Final win odds are here:...

Final win odds are here: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/wysiwyg/assets/uploads/2020-21-DFW-Odds-Pool-2.pdf

NO. HORSE ML-ODDS, FINAL ODDS
1. Bezos 20-1, 26.6
2. Caddo River 30-1, 13.8
3. Capo...
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 01-24-2021, 04:39 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 950
Posted By Dunbar
Arrow 1/24 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager (Pool 2)

Derby Future Wager Pool II closes at 6pm today (1/24):

Live odds are here: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/derby-pool-2

NO. HORSE ML-ODDS
1. Bezos 20-1
2. Caddo River 30-1
3. Capo...
Forum: Stakes Archive 12-20-2020, 05:03 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 1,536
Posted By Dunbar
Didn't know that. Glad you pointed it out.

Didn't know that. Glad you pointed it out.
Forum: Stakes Archive 10-23-2020, 05:54 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 1,448
Posted By Dunbar
Thanks for adding the Dowager BSF. I was curious...

Thanks for adding the Dowager BSF. I was curious what they'd do. Two hours earlier, allowance horses in a mile-and-sixteenth turf race hit the mile marker more than 10 seconds faster than in the...
Forum: Stakes Archive 10-22-2020, 07:11 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 1,448
Posted By Dunbar
Did they come up with a BSF for Blame Debbie in...

Did they come up with a BSF for Blame Debbie in the Dowager? I assume the extremely slow pace made it tough.
Forum: Triple Crown Topics/Archive.. 10-04-2020, 05:34 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 3,486
Posted By Dunbar
I felt the same way. And there's the added...

I felt the same way. And there's the added bonus that with a filly, there's a much better chance that we'll get to see them compete for another couple of years.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 282

 
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