Winner in the Strub Stakes Sat.
 

Santa Anita has a Handicapping challenge contest where you must pick the winners in three stakes races to share the 10.000 winners pool. I made it to the last round for the last 3 years and have missed the winner in the final race. This year I hit Latent Heat (Malibu winner) Awesome Gem (San Fernado winner and I am going with Arson Squad in the Strub.

Do I have a good chance or am I dreamin?

Probably dreaming, but it wouldn't be the first time I got it wrong...I'd go with Bro. Derek or Midnight Lute over Arson. Who knows what you're getting with that thing.

If you have access to replays watch Santa Anita's 1/13/07 8th race. Midnight Lute was 4 wide around both turns and made up ground on the second turn to gain the lead. He was leg weary in the stretch and caught by Awesome Gem.

I think the inside post plays to Midnight Lute's advantage here. If he does not regress off his last race he should win the Strub.

At what point do you think that a "Bounce" would be for a horse that went two turns for the first time and is lightly raced.

BD is not the play and Midnight Lute could Bounce.

Predicting an athletes recovery rate is very difficult. There's a good possibility that three weeks between races might not be enough time to recover from such a strong effort.

How he bounces back remains to be seen. His trainer is pretty sharp and usually spots his horse well.

Midnight Lute appears to be the most talented horse in the race and with a beter trip he should win.

I may be totally crazy here but Fairbanks may have a shot - he's the only one who hasn't run within the past three weeks (he's a month out from his last race), he's 2nd off the layoff and he's with a 29% shipper... does anyone think he's got a chance besides me?

Fairbanks win at Saratoga was a slow paced speed biased aided romp.There's a chance that he improved since then but in his last he beat Champ Safi. That's not much.

Good luck with him but I don't think he has enough to beat these horses.

I think Fairbanks will run in the San Antonio(Sunday) instead.

The San Antonio is a much more logical race for Fairbanks. MOTO

Well,let me start by saying that I totally disagree that Awesome Gem should have won the Sir Beaufort Stakes.Kip was simply best in there,and he is gunna always be very tough in mile turf races that he can rate 2nd or 3rd in.If this race tomorrow was at a mile,I would give the nod to Midnight Lute.Fact is,it is a 9f race.You are giving Awesome Gem even more ground to grind away at these 3 horses(none of which are favored by going further than a mile.)I have to give him the nod here.He is no star,but he is improving.There is no doubt that M LUTE has the best turn of foot in the race,and Awesome Gem gives himself a hell of a lot to do.I feel like M LUTE is simply better at 7f-1 mile.Does he win last time if he gets a less wide trip?Yes,but not by much,and I think he would have been getting caught late(but hold on.)At 9f,I like Awesome Gem to win it.Sure,he could come a fast-closing 2nd.I will be very surprised if this guy doesn't come top 2...Very surprised.

Midnight Lute for fun..

California's handicap division is really hurting these days and if Fairbanks makes it to the starting gate, he's got a realistic chance to finding the winner's circle. They will definitely need Invasor and others from the east coast to make the Big Cap interesting this year. I'm also concerned about their 3 yr old crop with the exception of the O'Neil runners.

You have a good chance with Arsen Squad. It may be his turn. I dont think Awesome Gem can win this because it was his turn last time. I dont think Bro Derek will win because I think he lost his will to. That leaves Arsen Squad or Spring at Last. Guessing one of those two will get their turn today.

Brother Derek gets plenty of money at the windows, but the horse doesn't look look to be on the muscle at all.

Midnight Lute was a short horse last out and was lugging in. I don't think the extra distance will help.

Awesome Gem finished to win and galloped out well and still looked to have something left in the winners circle.

Arson Squad didn't gallop out well in his last race and Headley is having a problem finding the winners Circle.

Looks like a repeat from Awesome Gem with the added distance.

Awesome Gem has been kicking the barn door down , they can't feed him eneough , the extra distance will play right into his hands.

Baze says he is screaming to run further

Hey Derby cat... I think I am with you on fairbanks... but won't leave out awesome gem

For some reason I think Objective could lull these horses to sleep and hit at monster odds. I tossed him in both the last two, he did nothing but run up the track and yet I find myself drawn to him here. I'd love to see Fairbanks scratch.

Hope you didn't change your mind. Congrats, if you didn't.