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-   -   Pick 3, 4 and 6 ticket structure (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8883)

eurobounce 01-17-2007 08:15 AM

Pick 3, 4 and 6 ticket structure
 
My philosophy with the ticket structure is: Make a pick 3 a pick 2, make a pick 4 a pick 3 and make a pick 6 a pick 4. Is this ticket structure philosophy incorrect? If there a better way. I do not seem very confident in my ticket structures for these bets. I typically try to keep my pick 6 under $160. I try to keep my pick 4 under $60 and I try to keep my pick 3 under $30 (all for $1). Ticket structure isn't my strong suit, but some on here are great at it. Any advice is appreciated. Thanks in advance.

lemoncrush 01-17-2007 11:29 AM

I'm not an expert, but my budget and strategy is similar to yours when doing pick 3s and pick 4s.
Whenever I've hit a nice paying pick 4, I've singled a horse that is 4-1 or greater on the morning line in one race (and sometimes, in addition to singling a chalky horse in another leg). This gives me the luxury of going deeper in some legs that I normally would.

point given 01-17-2007 12:12 PM

betting
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce
My philosophy with the ticket structure is: Make a pick 3 a pick 2, make a pick 4 a pick 3 and make a pick 6 a pick 4. Is this ticket structure philosophy incorrect? If there a better way. I do not seem very confident in my ticket structures for these bets. I typically try to keep my pick 6 under $160. I try to keep my pick 4 under $60 and I try to keep my pick 3 under $30 (all for $1). Ticket structure isn't my strong suit, but some on here are great at it. Any advice is appreciated. Thanks in advance.

I think you have to be comfortable with the races in question. by that I mean that sometimes you are just playing a p3 or 4 without strong feelings about them. To me this is a mistake. It all depends on the races at hand in the sequence and how you see them, I like these races and have strong opinions on them or I like a couple of them and don't have a clue in one of them etc. To just structure bets according to a set idea is restricting and forcing a conclusion. A friend told me of his buddy who just bets p3's and only in a set way of 3,3,1 $9 bet and bets 10 of these a day between 2 tracks, limiting his losses, but he hits a lot of big ones. This is your formula of making a p3 a p2. To me it is too limiting, I may in fact end up doing one ofthese plays , but only when it fits what i am seeing in the races at hand, but it works for him. Try different ways and see what is successful and what you feel comfortable with.

eurobounce 01-17-2007 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by point given
I think you have to be comfortable with the races in question. by that I mean that sometimes you are just playing a p3 or 4 without strong feelings about them. To me this is a mistake. It all depends on the races at hand in the sequence and how you see them, I like these races and have strong opinions on them or I like a couple of them and don't have a clue in one of them etc. To just structure bets according to a set idea is restricting and forcing a conclusion. A friend told me of his buddy who just bets p3's and only in a set way of 3,3,1 $9 bet and bets 10 of these a day between 2 tracks, limiting his losses, but he hits a lot of big ones. This is your formula of making a p3 a p2. To me it is too limiting, I may in fact end up doing one ofthese plays , but only when it fits what i am seeing in the races at hand, but it works for him. Try different ways and see what is successful and what you feel comfortable with.

Makes sense to me. Thanks Point for the advice.

brianwspencer 01-17-2007 12:22 PM

i've only really gotten serious about multi-race wagers in the last year or so because i realized that i was spending too much time and money trying to get a longshot to run 3rd in a race. Since I've switched over to mainly win, exacta, and multi-race wagers I've seen a dramatic improvement in my winnings -- though still far from where I'd like to be :D

I tend to base it around a race with a single, especially if i think that single is a live longshot in the 8/12-1 area. I try to keep pick-4 plays around $48-60. If I can find a single of any type then I base the entire ticket around that -- with a single on a $60 pick-4 ticket, that allows me to go 3/4/5 deep in the other legs which leaves me feeling pretty confident.

Another angle I love is waiting for a race that opens up a multi-race wager with a huge favorite that I don't like a bit. I found one in a maiden race at Turfway a few weeks back. The favorite was 3/5 and on all numbers and race results, seemed only about a half length better than the rest who were all going off in the 6-1 range. I basically crafted that ticket AGAINST the favorite and went four deep on the first leg. The favorite didn't do his job and led to a really overblown pick-3 payoff of something like $1000 when the final two legs were won by a 7-2 winner and a 5-1 winner....all for knocking the huge favorite out on the first leg.

So long story short -- I like to look for a single winner, or a heavily bet single play-against.

eurobounce 01-17-2007 12:29 PM

I agree with you Brian. Monday at The Big A I had the early pick 4. Foose was so much better than everyone in race two (first leg) that I had to single that horse. He ended up winning by a wide margin. With that single and a short field in race 3 allowed me to hit a $14.20 horse in race 3 (3nd leg). I spread 4 and 4 the last two legs and got a nice price. I, like you, try and find that single or find a race where the heavy heavy fav is beatable. When I find a bad fav I typically will go all in that leg (leaving out the heavy fav).

eajinabi 01-17-2007 03:30 PM

I love pick 3s!! If you play $30 pick 3s I suggest you not play one huge ticket. I play multiple tickets on the same three legs. I key my A and/or B horse in each ticket and then I have chance to add other horses in each ticket I have.

For $30 my tickets would look like this.

Ticket 1:

A,B,C - A,B - A,B

Ticket 2:
A,B,D - A,C - A

Ticket 3:
A,C - A,B - A,B,C

This is just an example. This way I have a chance to hit multiple tickets if it goes my way.

Five Star Derek 01-17-2007 06:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by point given
I think you have to be comfortable with the races in question. by that I mean that sometimes you are just playing a p3 or 4 without strong feelings about them. To me this is a mistake. It all depends on the races at hand in the sequence and how you see them, I like these races and have strong opinions on them or I like a couple of them and don't have a clue in one of them etc. To just structure bets according to a set idea is restricting and forcing a conclusion. A friend told me of his buddy who just bets p3's and only in a set way of 3,3,1 $9 bet and bets 10 of these a day between 2 tracks, limiting his losses, but he hits a lot of big ones. This is your formula of making a p3 a p2. To me it is too limiting, I may in fact end up doing one ofthese plays , but only when it fits what i am seeing in the races at hand, but it works for him. Try different ways and see what is successful and what you feel comfortable with.

I'm far from a bet structure expert but I do something similar to this. I play pick threes and pick a single in each race. My one criteria is that only one of these singles in the pick 3 can be potential chaulk.

Example-
Ticket 1

A - A,B,C - A,B,C

Ticket 2

A,B,C - A - A,B,C

Ticket 3

A,B,C - A,B,C - A
Total=$27

I'll go deeper sometimes if the race seems wide open. This gives me the potential to possibly hit 3 times if my singles finish first. I won't play the P-3 if my handicapping suggests that it's going to be chaulky.


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