Question about carrying weight
 

How much difference is there say between a horse that may carry 121 as opposed to one carrying 114? I know its a difference of 7lbs(cause I'm smart:D ), but really, does it matter all that much?

Just my opinion...
it depends.
On an older horse or mare...not much.
On younger...lots!
Depends on conditions, the racing secs try to make it competative.
My two cents.
DTS

did a research project on weight assignments a few years back and found this tidbit--don't know who it is credited to though.
"for every pound added over 8 furlongs (one mile) slows a horse by approximately 1 length or about 1/5 of a second."
but obviously a good horse is a good horse and a great horse will carry whatever you put on his back and win--for example Dr. F ager won carrying 134 or Native Dancer in the 50's won carrying 137 for 7 furlongs

Agree...depends on a lot of factors. Old school trainers would swear that a pound or two could mean the difference between winning or losing, Euro trainers seem to accept large weight assignments as routine (which they are). Kincsem once carried 168 pounds and won easily over a distance of ground, she routinely spotted male rivals 10, 20, 30 pounds or more and destroyed them. On the other hand, I've seen cheap claimers at Penn destroy a field by 10 lengths and then return next out against the same horses and finish soundly beaten carrying 4-5 pounds more...was it weight or form cycle? I think DTS is right...effects younger horses more in general but then often they start low enough that the increases to 126 pounds is overcome by maturation. Seems to effect horses much more on the dirt than turf, can stop a cheap speed horse like a brick wall! All in all...it depends on the individual horse and the track condition.

somerrr!

How goes it?

we in europe strongly believe that weight matters and its usually a length per pound diff over a mile. I believe that weight does matter and especially in G1 races, it should be Weight for age. The best horse should win. Take last week's turf race with Cacique and co. Grey Swallow and English Channel were judged to have run better races than the actual winner.

i agree weight does matter but you can't disute what the great ones did, that's why they are considered great

I would say that it depends on the situation...I'm not a huge weight guy, but I would say in general that 7lbs. is probably enough weight to mean a little something...Now, how much depends on the scenario...I bet a bhorse at CD that made me nervous for the first time in a while because of his weight...it was a Neil Howard maiden named STUDENT COUNCIL last Wednesday and this colt was carrying 122 against other maidens who were also had good form that were carrying 114 and I thought that such little may have seperated then to where if they got in a stretch dual the weight may have matter (just because none of them had ever won before)....Thankfully, Student Councill got the job done easily but I will admit it made me think about it for the first time.

With all of this being stated, I would probably only take weight into account if it is around 6-10 lbs. difference AND you were really having a difficult time seperating a couple of horses based on the rest of your handicapping formula...outside of that, I don't put much stock into weight...

yeah the great ones usually win no matter what weight they carry as somer alluded to. Many of our sprinters over here run within a pound of each other every time and a pound or two does make a crucial difference esp in testing ground!

Personally I feel this is the most overrated handicaping variable ever.

How many times does a horse throw a joclkey and he's neck and neck with the winner at the wire? Granted a horse - a jockey is more than just a few pounds less but most of the time the horse also encounters trouble when throwing the jockey. I believe weight is an issue but not a large one. I hate it when a horse breaks his/her maiden then moves up in class and carries more weight. I also like a 4y old maiden that won carrying 123 against 3y olds and then drops 5-7 pounds in the next race out.

While weight certainly has some impact, it is almost impossible to measure it with any kind or accuracy as it applies to a given horse. Also, the top-weight horse in a race wins far more than the low-weighted horse, so I agree with Gander and many others who believe it is the most overrated factor in handicapping- almost to the point where I all but disregard it in my analysis.

I agree that a race over 1 1/8 mile and over 121 lbs. Every pound over 121 will slow a horse by one length. The great ones will still win, but most will show that the weight did shorten their margin of victory. Races less than 8 furlongs the weight shouldn't be a factor. Weight will slow them down.