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Rupert Pupkin 12-21-2006 02:18 PM

7th Laurel
 
There is a first-time starter in here named My Brooklynne Rose that has a ton of speed, yet the horse is only showing really slow works. I wonder if the trainer is trying to cash one. Even if he is, it's tough to win at 7 furlongs first-time out. In addition, the favorite(She's a Blue Devil) looks like she'll be tough to beat. I saved with an exacta from the favorite to my horse.

Rupert Pupkin 12-21-2006 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
There is a first-time starter in here named My Brooklynne Rose that has a ton of speed, yet the horse is only showing really slow works. I wonder if the trainer is trying to cash one. Even if he is, it's tough to win at 7 furlongs first-time out. In addition, the favorite(She's a Blue Devil) looks like she'll be tough to beat. I saved with an exacta from the favorite to my horse.

That sucks. She lost by a head at 9-1. I'll make a little money because I bet to win and place.

Gander 12-21-2006 03:55 PM

Nice call Ritchie.

I wont be one of those jerks who say, "you should have back wheeled it in the exactas."

Dont you hate that?

PSH 12-21-2006 04:32 PM

Tough Beat
 
Richie:

I have been waiting for this one to run for a couple of months now.
Looks like she was just short, and to get beat by the #6 horse was really upsetting.

Played exactas with three other horses front and back but not that #6.
Anyway, certainly liked the odds of 9-1 and guess she will be fit for her next start....

PSH

Rupert Pupkin 12-21-2006 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSH
Richie:

I have been waiting for this one to run for a couple of months now.
Looks like she was just short, and to get beat by the #6 horse was really upsetting.

Played exactas with three other horses front and back but not that #6.
Anyway, certainly liked the odds of 9-1 and guess she will be fit for her next start....

PSH

How did you know about this horse?

PSH 12-22-2006 09:55 AM

For Sale Sign
 
Rupert:

She is for sale on the internet....
I am always checking horses for sale and found this add for her on Equine Now.

http://www.equinenow.com/horse-ad-24350

Also i have seen your success in wagering two year olds out of the sales and have printed the results of all the major two year olds in training sales this year.... I obvious don't have the knowledge of the works that you have but have started to follow the babies who are running ... Hope you don't mind.

Looks like there is a horse running today in the 2nd at Calder that was purchased in the Keeneland Spring sale for $140,000. Broadway Bound. Mott bringing this first timer off a steady slow work tab. Not much to beat in here and listed as 5-1.

Paul

Rupert Pupkin 12-22-2006 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSH
Rupert:

She is for sale on the internet....
I am always checking horses for sale and found this add for her on Equine Now.

http://www.equinenow.com/horse-ad-24350

Also i have seen your success in wagering two year olds out of the sales and have printed the results of all the major two year olds in training sales this year.... I obvious don't have the knowledge of the works that you have but have started to follow the babies who are running ... Hope you don't mind.

Looks like there is a horse running today in the 2nd at Calder that was purchased in the Keeneland Spring sale for $140,000. Broadway Bound. Mott bringing this first timer off a steady slow work tab. Not much to beat in here and listed as 5-1.

Paul

That Bill Mott horse worked terrible. He worked an 1/8th of a mile in :12 on the grass. It is extremely rare to see a horse work that slow. You will only see 1 or 2 horses out of 100 that work that slow. The times of the works aren't that important but they are somewhat important.

Sometimes you will hear me say that I like a first-timer and the horse worked :10 1/5 or :10 2/5 at the sale. But there are plenty of horses that work that fast that I wouldn't bet a dime on. The way they move is more important than the time. There are plenty of horses that can work a fast 1/8th of a mile, but that's about it. For example, at the Ocala March Sale I'm looking at my list right now and I see that there were a ton of horses that worked fast. About 25% of the horses worked an 1/8th in either :10,
:10 1/5, :10 2/5, or :10 3/5. So that means that out of every 100 horses at that sale, 25 of them worked in :10 3/5 or better. But out of those 25 horses, there would probably only be around 8-10 that I would be interested in betting on.

PSH 12-22-2006 04:46 PM

Thanks
 
Understand .... Not surprised by your response.

Paul


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