Derby Trail Forums - 4/11: Keeneland (4th-11th; $154k P6 C/O)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Rockin Robin 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Mon Reve 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Pinto 9-2 WON ($6.92)

5th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Comprehensive 3-1: 2nd Lynch Hard Spun strong on paper; Has had chances..
Best Value: #4 Magical Factor 15-1 WON ($19.18)
Next Best: #10 Newman 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Minotaur 4-1 7th

6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

$154k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #4 Curlin's Malibu 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Conquest Warrior 9-5 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Authentic Strike 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Original Sin 8-1 WON ($14.48)

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P5, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Sicilian Defense 8-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Noble Confessor 3-1 WON ($5.64)
Exotics Use: #6 Arkhipov 8-5 4th
Super Add: #2 Love'm Or Liam 6-1 3rd

$3 Turf P3 Grid:

7: 3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3x3 = 18 x $3 = $54

$3 PICK THREE (7/10/6) $43.77
$3 PICK THREE (7/1/6) $84.99

P4 Grid:

4: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 3-4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-3-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x4x3x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

8th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Right Timing 5-2 4th
Best Value: #11 Belle 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Al Ghadeer 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Arcana 10-1 9th

9th: Jenny Wiley (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T ($3 Late P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Segesta 7-2 DH-WON ($2.84)
Best Value: #3 Medoro 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Expensive Queen 8-1 DH-WON ($3.46)
Exotics Use: #6 Deep Satin 20-1 8th

$3 Late P3 Grid:

9: 1-3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 3-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x3x2 = 18 x $3 = $54

10th: Lexington (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 The Hell We Did 8-1: 2nd Senor Buscador half (Rose's Desert's 2023 Authentic colt)..
Best Value: #3 Decisive Win Late SCR
Next Best: #10 Confessional 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Corona de Oro 6-1 3rd

11th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 West End Kid 9-2 WON ($5.72)
Next Best: #4 Heeere's Johnny 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Coordinator 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Terre Haute 12-1 4th

P6 Grid:

6: 4-7 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
7: 3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 10 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
10: 3-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x3x1 = $108
All A's: 2x2x2x1x3x1 = $24

P5 Grid:

7: 3-7 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
8: 3-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-10 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)
10: 3-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6 (A), 4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x3x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-5-6 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

8: 3-11 (A), 2-12 (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-10 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)
10: 3-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 6 (A), 4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x3x1 = 18 x .50 = 49
Backup (ACAA): 2x3x3x1 = 18 x .50 = $9 (4-5-6 in 9th)

Let's get lucky!
Steve