Derby Trail Forums - 4/3: Keeneland ~ Opening Day

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 2yo, 4.5f (P5, P3, DD)

First juvenile race of the year featuring 4 freshman sires: Highly Motivated, Life Is Good, Nashville, Corniche..

Best Value: #7 Tigrado 30-1: 3rd Nashville babies were lightening quick at OBS. Taking flyer this one pops..
Next Best: #8 Suspicions 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Jo Jo Dude 4-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Bourbon Town 6-1 2nd

2nd: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 N Z Holly 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Miss Call 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Trapped 5-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Menkaure 6-1 8th

3rd: ALW/N2X, 4+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Favored Camp Hale (Mo Town) & Whatchatalkinabout (Dialed In) are fast on dirt but uncertain moving to the grass..

Best Value: #7 Amoudi Bay 8-1 WON ($14.86)
Next Best: #3 Camp Hale 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Spiced Up 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Our Starry Night 10-1 5th

4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Very deep, contentious group..

Best Value: #2 Laken 15-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Phantom Blue 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Hypnotica 6-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Lady Diversity 9-2 7th

5th: Lafayette, 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Trouble Calling 7-2: The Balls are flush w/ Chief Wallabee and 4 KEE starters Fri/Sat.. WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #2 Knock It Off 2-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Comport 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Arctic Beast 3-1 4th

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 9f-T ($3 Turf P3, P5, P3, DD)

Wide open..

Best Value: #7 A Bourbon for Toby 8-1 ($25.06)
Next Best: #9 Sumood 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Without 9-5 5th
Super Add: #4 Bite and Strike 12-1 11th

$3 Turf P3 Grid:

6: 1-4-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-8 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
10: 1 (A), 10 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2 = 32 x $3 = $96
All A's: 4x2x1 = 8 x $3 = $24
Backup (AAC): 4x2x1 = 8 x $3 = $24 (7 in 10th)

7th: Beaumont (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Wrong Shoes 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Sneaky Good 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 A Fine Chardonnay 5-2 WON ($6.82)

8th: Transylvania (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T ($3 Late P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Zeppelin 15-1: 8th In Rusty, we trusty; Race 2 back wins this..
Next Best: #1 Proton 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Street Beast 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Noble Dynasty 8-1 6th

$3 Late P3 Grid:

8: 1-8 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
9: 3-4 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
10: 1-10 (A), 7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3 = 24 x $3 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2 = 8 x $3 = $24
Backup (ACA): 2x1x2 = 4 x $3 = $12 (7 in 9th)

9th: Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #4 French Friction 9-2: 4th Zany filly to beat, but this Casse the one to catch..
Next Best: #3 Zany 4-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Percy's Bar 7-2 WON ($7.12)
Super Add: #7 Star Actress 6-1 3rd

10th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Prize Pick 5-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Democracy Defender 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Obelus 8-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Cash Bonus 15-1 7th

P5 Grid:

6: 7-9 (A), - (B), 1-4 (C)
7: 3-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-8 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
9: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3x2 = 144 x 50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (ACAAA): 2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (3-6 in 7th)

P4 Grid:

7: 3-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-8 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
9: 3-4 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
10: 1-10 (A), - (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x2 = 96 x 50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAC): 3x2x2x1 = 12 x .50 = $6 (7 in 10th)

Let's get lucky!
Steve