Derby Trail Forums - 2/14: Fair Grounds (Risen Star Day)

FAIR GROUNDS ~ NOLA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Rani 9-2 WON ($10.20)
Next Best: #6 Spare Me 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Kayla's Komet 9-2 9th
Super Add: #5 Niche 6-1 4th

2nd: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Trouble Calling 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #8 Mojacar 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Trombone 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Big Time Story 12-1 8th

3rd: Colonel Power, 4+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

SCR Autodrive.. Tricky group to decipher with 'first turf' Built complicating matters. If you want to keep it simple, Usually Wrong the one to catch and beat and there isn't all that much pace involved. Bear River looks to be circling up to an A effort..

Best Value: #2 Bear River 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Usually Wrong 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Built 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Champlin 6-1 4th

4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Goodall 5-2 ~ WON ($3.80) An Asmussen Lock of the Week!
Best Value: #5 Lakota Lady 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Island Flower 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Fun on the Bayou 8-1 8th

5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ocala Gala 3-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Sonare 8-1 11th
Next Best: #11 Mighty Hankerin 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Prima Donna 12-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

1: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1-2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 2-5 (A), - (B), 6-8 (C)
4: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-8 (A), 6-11-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x1x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6-8 in 3rd)

P4 Grid:

2: 1-2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 2-5 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
4: 6 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
5: 1-8-11 (A), 6-12 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x5 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 3x2x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (AACA): 3x2x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9 (5 in 4th)

6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Maximum Bourbon 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #4 Banned for Life 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Fully Volatile 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Attache 9-2 2nd

7th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (Crescent City 6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Marauder 6-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Kelz 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Silver Shot 6-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Get Them Roses 12-1 6th

8th: Al Stall Memorial, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Medoro 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Expensive Queen 6-1 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #9 Cupids Crush 15-1 5th ~ Talk about a Valentine's Day hunch play!
Exotics Use: #2 Oversubscribed 5-2 4th

P5 Grid:

4: 6 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 1-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-5-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x3x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

5: 1-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-5-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-2-3-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x4x4x1 = 48 x .50 = $24

9th: Mineshaft (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

A dirt route version of the Col. Power with a clear favorite in Hit Show that doesn't have to win. In this set, there's few committed speeds and Accelerize is likely the one to catch with Johnny taking over the riding. When Chad moves emerging runners into stakes, they usually perform and today might be the perfect time for Time to Win..

Best Value: #5 Time to Win 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Hit Show 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Accelerize 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Moonlight 6-1 6th

10th: Fair Grounds (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Montador 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Kupuna 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Lagynos 7-2 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #2 Brilliant Bertie 4-1 4th

11th: Rachel Alexandra (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Bella Ballerina makes 3yo debut today and while half to Pretty Mischievous is a little behind her sister in the development curve (3rd start v. 5th start for Mischievous when she won the Rachel), get the sense she romps over this group..

Most Likely: #3 BELLA BALLERINA 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #5 Powered by Family 9-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Majestical 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Just Singing 7-2 3rd

12th: Risen Star (G2), 3yo, 9f

If Paladin picks up where he left off in the Remsen, he's likely to win. But the rest of this group is within reach and all except Courting are here with a recency edge. This is another group with very little speed signed on and Chip Honcho could do for Asmussen what Magnitude (over returning East Avenue) and Epicenter (over returning Remsen runner up Zandon) did in this same spot..

Best Value: #5 Chip Honcho 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Paladin 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Courting 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Golden Tempo 3-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

8: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-5-6 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
10: 6-7 (A), 2-9 (B), - (C)
11: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 4-5-7 (A), 2-8 (B), 1-3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x4x1x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAAC): 1x4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-3-6 in 12th)

P4 Grid:

9: 4-5-6 (A), 2-3-7 (B), - (C)
10: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 4-5-7 (A), 2-8 (B), 1-3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x1x5 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 3x2x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (AAAC): 3x2x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9 (1-3-6 in 12th)

Let's get lucky!
Steve