11/28: Churchill Downs (8th-12th)
 

CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Yes, Miss Ellary is the horse to beat, but she loves to finish 2nd and there are several right in range for honors..

Most Likely: #3 Carolina Candy 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Miss Ellary 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Dozen Diamonds 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Creative Quality 5-1 7th


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Long lost Good Money (4th beaten <1 length as part of the notorious non-wagering '24 Tampa Bay Derby) won't be 8-1, but new gelding is the horse to beat dropping below price of claim..

Best Value: #2 Good Money 8-1 WON ($7.90)
Next Best: #3 Sand Street 9-2 11th
Exotics Use: #10 Gallo de Fuego 3-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Hard to Say 7-2 9th


10th: Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Classic Q has been rock solid with some bad trip luck the difference between a good and great season. Should dictate terms up front as 2nd choice behind G1 QEII victress Lush Lips. Rusty's In the Stars (15-1) is the competitive fun price candidate, while Walsh's secondary entrant Somethinabouther (8-1) rarely misses a stakes board..

Most Likely: #4 Classic Q 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 In the Stars 15-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Lush Lips 7-2 WON ($3.14)
Exotics Use: #8 Somethinabouther 8-1 10th


$3 Late P3 Grid:

10: 1-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2-4-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x1x5 = 15 x $3 = $45


11th: Clark (G2), 3+, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

Super competitive Clark where favored Hit Show is just one of the ones that can win. Feels like the 3yo's with upside are the right approach..

Most Likely: #4 Gosger 4-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Magnitude 9-2 WON ($6.36)
Best Value: #2 First Mission 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Rattle N Roll 7-2 5th


12th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Hi-5)

Insane late season MSW with sons of major stakes-winning dams Walkabout (Matron-CD), Sara Louise (Top Flight, Victory Ride, Pocahontas), She's a Julie (Phipps/La Troienne, +++) and Belvoir Bay (BC Turf Sprint, Monrovia, +++) all on display..

Most Likely: #2 Pitkin 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Vital Mind 6-1 WON ($5.54)
Next Best: #4 Sea Vista 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Mizzou 3-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

8: 3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4 (A), 9 (B), 2-3-6 (C)
12: 2-4-6 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (2x2x3x3x3): 108 x 50 = $54 (2-3-6 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

9: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 4 (A), 2-9 (B), 3-6 (C)
12: 2-4-6-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 2x3x1x5 = 30 x .50 = $15
Backup (2x3x2x5): 60 x 50 = $30 (3-6 in 11th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/1,2,6/8,9/5,6) Paid $89.00


Let's get lucky!
Steve