Derby Trail Forums - 7/5: Saratoga (4th-12th; X-C P5)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Not a desirable betting race, but very watchable for first out 3yo winners Ragtime (Mott) and Alyeska (Chad) v. returning 4yo Points Is Points (Cox)..

Most Likely: #3 Ragtime 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #1 Points Is Points 8-5 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Alyeska 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Artemis Sound 5-1 4th

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 National Archive 3-1: Clement's Oak Bluff home bred 2nd/layoff and square price.. WON ($7.10)
Next Best: #7 Summer Whirl 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 From Hello 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 North End Lady 5-2 3rd

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-Inner (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Connect the Stars 8-1: Casse firing and Farmer's Connect home bred built for stretchout.. 2nd
Next Best: #5 Embrace Time 5-2 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Matadora 2-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Gorrano Ranch 3-1 5th

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Celestial Speed 9-2: Gargan stablemate matched wits with impressive Iron Orchard.. 8th
Next Best: #5 Gin's Beach Road 4-1: Casse has Live Oak's Ginny Moens namesake runner ready.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Filly Freedom 8-5 2nd
Super Add: #1 Triango Tower 6-1 4th

P4 Grid:

4: 1-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 4-7 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)
6: 5-7 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
7: 5-7 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 3x2x2x2 =24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAA): 3x2x2x2 =24 x .50 = $12 (1-6 in 5th)

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Boat's a Rockin 9-2: Kulp's veteran PEN invader is 1 for 2 in trips Upstate.. 7th
Next Best: #8 Final Verdict 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Tidal Forces 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Step Forward 10-1 2nd

9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Russian Realm 7-2: New gelding from Gargan with long series of drills for return.. 6th
Best Value: #1 Shipsational 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 I'm Wide Awake 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Braciole 10-1 5th

P5 Grid:

5: 4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 5-7 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
7: 5-7 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
8: 2-8 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
9: 1-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x2x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAACA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-5 in 8th)

P4 Grid:

6: 5-7 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
7: 5-7 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
8: 2-8 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
9: 1-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 =24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AACA): 2x2x2x3 =24 x .50 = $12 (1-5in 8th)

Cross Country P5 Grid:

MTH 6: 3 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAR 10: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
IND 11: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
SAR 11: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
IND 12: 1-3-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

10th: Kelso (G3), 4+, 1m-Inner (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Win for the Money 6-1: '24 WO Mile win'r gets back to best trip for streaking Casse.. 3rd
Next Best: #2 Intellect 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Mountain Bear 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Think Big 7-2 WON ($15.00)

11th: Belmont Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD)

Best Value: #5 Fionn 5-1: Cox Twirling Candy miss has been under radar terrific; Lures Prat.. WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #7 Nitrogen 4-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Totally Justified 6-1 7th
Super Add: #6 May Day Ready 10-1 4th

12th: NY-MCLM/$30k, 3+, 6.5f

Most Likely: #11 Capt Jax Parrow 9-5 WON ($5.70)
Best Value: #7 Solo Mio 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Kings and Queens 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Mama's Middie 8-1 5th

P5 Grid:

8: 2-8 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
9: 1-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 8 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
11: 5-7 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
12: 7-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 2x3x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-5 in 8th)

P4 Grid:

9: 1-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-8 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
11: 5-7 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
12: 7-10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (ACAA): 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4-6 in 10th)

Let's get lucky!
Steve