Derby Trail Forums - 3/29: Oaklawn (6th-14th); Gulfstream (10th-14th)

OAKLAWN PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: Matron, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Benedetta 4-1 3rd ~ Asmussen ATR 'Lock of the Week' (Parlay with Publisher..)
Next Best: #4 American Rocket 3-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Lady Moscato 12-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Haulin Ice 7-2 WON ($8.80)

7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Really solid group of hard knockers. Many chances..

Most Likely: #5 Zambezi 9-2 7th
Best Value: #7 Navy Seal 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Favorite Outlaw 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Eglise 15-1 2nd

8th: Oaklawn Mile (G3), 4+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Banishing 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #8 Saudi Crown 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Dimatic 20-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 The Wine Steward 4-1 3rd

9th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Major players chased Cornucopian and are logical, but at 10-1, Just Classic SCR'D has appeal having moved forward when stretched out to 8.5f..

Next Best: #4 Oy Gevald 9-5 8th
Best Value: #8 Zardun10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Zero Sugar 2-1 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Sixtyseven Mustang 12-1 2nd

P4 Grid:

6: 1-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 5-7 (A), 10-11 (B), - (C)
8: 3-5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-4-8 (A), 1 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

10th: Eclipse-R, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Has SCR'd down to a 4 horse field (3-4-5-6)..

Most Likely: #5 Wendelssohn 9-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #6 Ninja Warrior 6-1 2nd

11th: American Pharoah-R, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Possibly the day's most compelling wagering affair with legit logicals and irresistible price players..

Best Value: #2 Quality Chic 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Bishops Bay 7-2 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Honor Marie 5-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Full Screen 10-1 3rd

12th: Fantasy (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Take Charge Milady a SCR..

Most Likely: #7 Simply Joking 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #10 Runnin N Gunnin 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Quietside 2-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Princess Em Too 15-1 4th

13th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Fascinating situation with Baffert trying daring gambit stretching Cornucopian to 9f G1 off 6f diploma nab here last month. And if he is left alone at all, (though Speed King should be winging), he'll be tough to catch on what may be a tight, glib surface given the ambient conditions. Coal Battle is versatile and plucky. Sandman will be closing. Monet's Magic had subtle trouble in the Southwest. Publisher is the latest daring Asmussen 'Lock of the Week' and while winless, looks an awful lot like Creator did coming into his AR Derby win..

Best Value: #3 Publisher 6-1 2nd ~ Asmussen ATR 'Lock of the Week'
Next Best: #9 Cornucopian 7-5 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Coal Battle 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Sandman 3-1 WON ($9.40)

P5 Grid:

9: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
12: 5-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 3 (A), 6-8-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x2x2x3x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5-9 in 11th)

$0.50 Pick 5 (3-5-1-5-6) Paid $78.25

P4 Grid:

10: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-2 (A), 5-9 (B), - (C)
12: 5-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 3-9 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

$0.50 Pick 4 (5-1-5-6) Paid $19.20

14th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f

Most Likely: #7 Gunoe 3-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Lat Long 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #12 Dance Some Mo 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Cat On Time 4-1 8th

P4 Grid:

11: 1-2 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
12: 5-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 3-9 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
14: 2-7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAA): 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5-9 in 11th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (1-5-6-2) Paid $30.95

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

10th: Sanibel Island, 3yo-F, 7.5f-T (P5, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Civetta 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Spirited Boss 12-1 WON ($26.40)
Next Best: #2 Mrs Worldwide 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Love Cervere 5-2 5th

$3 Turf P3 Grid:

10: 2-3-6-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 5x2x2 = 20 x $3 = $60

11th: Army Mule, 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

SCR of Knightsbridge makes this interesting..

Most Likely: #8 Inveigled 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Implementation 9-2 WON ($10.80)
Best Value: #7 Great Navigator 30-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Howgreatisnate 10-1 3rd

12th: Sand Springs, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T ()P3,DD

Most Likely: #6 Breath Away 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Autumn Evening 20-1 8th
Next Best: #12 In Our Time 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Be My Sunshine 8-1 5th

13th: Appleton, 4+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Major Dude 7-5 4th
Best Value: #2 Fly the W 20-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Seminole Chief 8-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Ice Chocolat 7-2 8th

14th: Florida Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Tappan Street 5-1 WON ($6.80) ~ Brad Cox ATR 'Lock of the Week'
Best Value: #1 Neoequos 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Sovereignty 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Madaket Road 7-2 4th

P4 Grid:

10: 2-6-9 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
11: 3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 6-7 (A), 4-11-12 (B), - (C)
13: 2-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 9 (A), - (B), 1-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3x5x2x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1= 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x3x2x2x2= 72 x .50 = $36 (1-10 in 14th)

P4 Grid:

11: 3-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 6-7-12 (A), 4-11 (B), - (C)
13: 2-9 (A), 7-11 (B), - (C)
14: 9 (A), - (B), 1-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x4x1 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 3x3x2x1= 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (AAAC): 3x3x2x2= 36 x .50 = $18 (1-10 in 14th)

Let's get lucky!
Steve