Arkansas Derby

1 - Brereton's Baytown, 20-1
2 - First Division, 20-1
3 - Publisher, 6-1
4 - Bestfriend Rocket, 20-1
5 - Speed King, 15-1
6 - Sandman, 3-1
7 - Monet's Magic, 20-1
8 - Coal Battle, 7-2
9 - Cornucopian, 7-5

Cornucopian may win but yeesh, I don’t want to touch him near even money. His maiden win was very impressive but so many questions remain.

Out of Into Mischief so we’ve already got a bit of a distance question there and yes, he’s a half to Guarana (won the Coaching Club American Oaks but was best at shorter distances) and Beatbox (turf router), but who knows what happens when he gets into it with Speed King and Lukas’s horse. And who knows if he’s the same horse going around two turns.

Thinking the pace could set up nicely for Coal Battle, Publisher or Sandman.

I totally get anyone taking a shot against Cornucopian tomorrow all things considered, however I thought that debut was truly something.

I think he'll win tomorrow and then probably be more of a bet against in the Derby.

Also, not sure we got to see enough of Guarana to say for sure she was better sprinting, although I take your point there...ironically Beatbox started for Chad Brown who of all people started him out running on the dirt for a few starts and stretching him out. I wonder if those two had some soundness stuff going on, but both were pretty good.

I'm not really a breeding expert but I think the damside says stretching on the dirt should be just fine with the Phipps bred Pleasant Home/Distorted Humor in there.

I think that we see something similar to his debut where he runs the other speed into the ground, kicks clear and sets up the closers for underneath (same idea) - the ones you listed make sense but I think I'm going to try to get Monet's Magic underneath at a better price. This one's dam wasn't much but is pretty interestingly bred going further back. I thought this one was coming along well showing slow and steady improvement heading into the Southwest....had to be held up in a bit of traffic awkwardly when the real running began...finished up decently. Given that he didn't show any works until March and missed the Rebel it seems like pointing toward a race at Keeneland for Colebrook would make more sense. Perhaps it's as simple as a typical case of Derby Fever, but I just get the sense this is a particularly aggressive move by Colebrook making me think either they got something fixed and/or really think he's got another forward move in him.

He is probably the best horse in the race so I’m not sure how I’ll be approaching it. There are too many questions for me to single him in a pick 4 or 5 sequence but I’m sure many will. I may end up singling Sandman and hoping for the best (despite him not being able to track down others in his most recent 2). The pace just might set up too perfectly for him.

I wouldn’t blame you for including a horse like Monet’s Magic. If cornucopian, coal battle, and sandman are the trifecta, it won’t pay much.

I ended up betting Publisher instead of Sandman. SMH.

I came away really impressed with Cornucopian. I think he’ll win some big races. He’s my early favorite for the Haskell.

Agreed, ultimately had a really bad cap on the race but didn't come away at all thinking Cornucopian isn't the most talented 3 year old...hope that race didn't ruin him...and definitely now think Monet was a case of Derby Fever...surprised Colebrook couldn't convince them a Keene allowance/The Lexington wasn't the right spot...still wonder if he isn't talented in an Allowance/Listed/G3 type sense...but clearly wasn't ready to fire vs those types...

Weirdest thing to me is the main reason I liked Cornu there was I thought he clearly showed ability to rate...not sure if it was JV/instructions but ultimately would've thought JV was smart enough to sense the situation/back off? Even in a loss Prat had what I thought was a brilliant ride today at SA in the 8th on Tom Horn when he broke like a rocket and backed off...came with his run and couldn't hold off the closing 8...feel like we could've seen a similar result with Cornu here if he did this, but who knows...maybe best for him long term and like you said Haskell/Travers makes sense, can back off a touch and maybe see a huge second half campaign from Baffert.

Very talented horse that experienced a very bad pace scenario. I’d be shocked if Cornucopian didn’t win some big races at some point.

I’m sure he’ll get bet heavily if he returns in the Haskell. I’d have to see who he’s up against and the question about two turns remains, as we can’t really glean much about his route ability from the Arkansas Derby. I’d guess he’ll be fine going two turns provided there isn’t an insane pace that he gets caught up in. But you never know for sure until the horse actually does it.