Derby Trail Forums - 3/8: Tampa Bay Downs (3rd-12th; X-C P5)

TAMPA BAY DOWNS ~ CROSS COUNTRY P5

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Cha Cha Quick 9/5 6th
Next Best: #5 Naked Eye 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Fast Market 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Subtle Humor 5-2 4th

4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Alimara 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Prides Crossing 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Fundamentally 6-1 WON ($19.00)
Super Add: #8 Up Her Sleeve 6-1 9th

5th: Challenger (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Skippylongstocking 7/5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #6 Most Wanted 3/2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Instant Coffee 15-1 3rd

6th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (Ultimate 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Night Agent 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Moment's Notice 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Wise Up 5-2 8th
Super Add: #4 Bridoza 20-1 5th

P4 Grid:

3: 8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 3-4-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-3-4-5-6-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 1x4x2x6 = 48 x .50 = $24

7th: Columbia, 3yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Early Adopter 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Reagan's Wit 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Zulu Kingdom 2-1 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #9 Dream On 4-1 5th

8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #11 Silver Slugger 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Next Best: #12 Laser Sharp 3-1 2nd
Best Value: ##13 Song Runner 30-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Dither 4-1 6th

P5 Grid:

4: 3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 8 (A), - (B), 6 (C)
6: 2-3-5 (A), 4-6-12 (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
8: 7-11-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x6x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $92
All A's: 2x1x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (ACAAA): 2x1x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 (6 in 5th)

P4 Grid:

5: 8 (A), 6 (B), 3 (C)
6: 2-3-5 (A), 4-6-12 (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
8: 7-11-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x3x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (ACAAA): 1x3x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12 (3 in 5th)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (1,2,5,7,8/12/2,6,7/11) Paid $57.55

9th: Hillsborough (G2), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Saffron Moon 9/5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #1 Sparkle Blue 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Gimme a Nother 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Spaliday 4-1 6th

AQUEDUCT 9th: NY-Gander, 3yo, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #1 Givememythememusic 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Soontobeking 6-1 WON ($14.80)
Exotics Use: #5 National Identity 7/5 2nd
Super Add: #3 Mo Plex 5-2 3rd

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

AQU 8: 1-4-5 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
TAM 10: 7-9 (A), 5-10 (B), 2-6 (C)
TAM 11: 1-2-3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
OP 9: 10 (A), - (B), - (C)
OP 10: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x5x1x2 = 200 x .50 = $100
All A's: 3x2x5x1x2 = 60 x .50 = $30
Backup (ACAAA): 3x2x5x1x2 = 60 x .50 = $30 (2-6 in TAM 10th)

$0.50 PICK FIVE (4/9,12/1/9,10,12/1,4,7) Paid $328.25 (A-A-A-A-A)

TAMPA 10th: Florida Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Very nice group of soph gals, boding well for division this season. Would like to lean on Nitrogen for multis given challenge of other legs..

Most Likely: #9 Nitrogen 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #7 Opulent Restraint 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Love You Anyway 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Pretty Lavish 6-1 8th

TAMPA 11th: Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Hi-5)

This is a curiosity given the OP misfire by Patch Adams and the seasonal debuts and blinkering of both Chads (Chancer McPatrick/Hill Road) and Filoso. Latched on to Hill Road as BCup exotics player and hold 56-1 Derby future wager ticket, so getting him into the Downs gate would be nice. Am tempered today by Brown saying he would have liked a couple more works with him and 4-1 isn't exactly a number that entices. I legitimately am unsure of how this race will be run, so I'm struggling with a definitive approach towards it's outcome. Dylan Davis reunites with Filoso and between his previous mounts on him and the blinkers, figures for the kind of mid-pack stalking trip that wins here. Price is right..

Best Value: #5 Filoso 15-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Hill Road 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Chancer McPatrick 8/5 2nd
Super Add: #1 Owen Almighty 5-1 WON ($7.80)

P5 Grid:

7: 1-4 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
8: 7-11-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-8 (A), - (B), 6-7 (C)
10: 9 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x2x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x4x2x1x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x4x2x1x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (6-7 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

8: 7-11-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-8 (A), - (B), 6-7 (C)
10: 9 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-5 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x5 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AACAA): 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 (6-7 in 9th)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (11/3,8/9,12/1) Paid $65.80

OAKLAWN 9th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Lukas chooses to take his time with Nuit Magique, who couldn't have been more impressive breaking MDN at first asking..

Most Likely: #10 NUIT MAGIQUE 7-2 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #8 Roman Grace 15-1 5th
Next Best: #7 She Called 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Outrageously 15-1 4th

OAKLAWN 10th: Azeri (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD)

Best Value: #2 Alpine Princess 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Thorpedo Anna 2/5 WON ($2.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Jody''s Pride 8-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Free Like a Girl 15-1 2nd

12th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Channel Check 2-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Native Rose 15-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #7 Currane 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Lady Authentic 7-2 2nd

P4 Grid:

9: 1-8 (A), - (B), 6-7 (C)
10: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-5 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
12: 2-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x5x3 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAA): 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (6-7 in 9th)

$0.50 PICK FOUR (3,8/9,12/1/5) Paid $220.45

Let's get lucky!
Steve