Derby Trail Forums - 11/17: Churchill Downs ($252k P5 C/O)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 1m (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

$252k P5 C/O starts here..

Kinzie Queen moves inside after good wide trip try at similar level. Is supposed to win this. McPeek sends firster Tarragon SCR'D (Volatile 19% with FTS) who was a $135k yearling and feels spotted. Judy's Flyer and Blushing Kam are first off claims for Garcia & Hartman..

Most Likely: #2 Kinzie Queen 3-1 WON ($6.56)
Next Best: #1 Cat Pays the Toll 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Blushing Kam 4-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Judy's Flyer 7-2 6th

6th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Analog Jones whistled when stretched to 2 turns, is the one to beat and isn't the ML favorite. Iron Sharpens Iron is a crazy 15-1 and was as fast on figs as Magnitude and Uncle Jim SCR'D..

Most Likely: #4 Analog Jones 2-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Iron Sharpens Iron 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Magnitude 3-1 WON ($4.96)

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Tickin Time Blonde moved forward going turf to dirt for Oliver and is the one to beat (and perhaps the one to catch), but firsters from Cox/Juddmonte (Catana) & Walsh/Godolphin (MagicalDay) command respect. Would guess the Amoss/Politi Liam's Map (Modo) can run, but may want longer (LDK mare)..

Most Likely: #3 Catana 2-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Magical Day 6-1 6th ~ NOTE: Gaffalione off mounts today from yesterday's spill..
Next Best: #9 Tickin Time Blonde 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Modo 12-1 5th

8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Kavod the one to beat and many will be inclined to single, but note Gold Luck gets Lasix back after stakes try and is absolutely on a par. Needs a little pace to chase (:44+), but Morales knows when to move with him if the half comes up north of :45..

Best Value: #5 Gold Luck 4-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Kavod 9-5 WON ($5.04)
Exotics Use: #3 Swirvin 5-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Osbourne 6-1 3rd

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #10 Artwell 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 River Ridge 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Tropandhagen 8-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Midnight Stormy 8-1 7th

P5 Grid:

5: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-3 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-10 (A), 6 (B), 4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AAAAC): 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (4-8 in 9th)

P4 Grid:

6: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-3 (A), 9-10 (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-10 (A), 6 (B), 4-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup (AAAAC): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (4-8 in 9th)

Let's get lucky!
Steve