Derby Trail Forums - 7/29: Saratoga (5th-12th); Del Mar (7th-11th)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (Must Pay P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Sterling Silver 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #5 You Look Cold 7-2 3rd

6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

"NY breds long on the turf".. and predictably impossible to separate. Feels like over half the field is easily eligible for laurels, so go as deep as you can afford..

Best Value: #12 North End Lady 12-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Autumn 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #13 Overacting 6-1 WON ($18.00)
Super Add: #6 Starts Now 7-2 2nd

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

To paraphrase the old Tom Durkin-voiced Saratoga ads, "It's the MDN race you wait for all year".. Dornach is a full brother to Mage; A t of Mutiny SCR is a half to Catalina Cruiser; AE-11 Skip the Line is a half to Arrogate (NOTE: Draws in to race); Global Perspective a half to Rowayton; Houlton o/o a 3x stake winner; Drum Roll Please o/o a 7x stake winner.. Yowza..

Best Value: #5 Private Desire 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Dornach 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Houlton 10-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Devil's Playground 8-1 10th

8th: Alf Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Mott is participating in 6 races today, so even if he gets shut out elsewhere, he'll win on his birthday with Elite Power just too good..

Most Likely: #4 Elite Power 4-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #5 Gunite 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Gun It 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Dean Delivers 8-1 3rd

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF/TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Tough Street WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #15 She Caught My Eye 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Diamond Hands 5th

P5 Grid:

5: 5-6 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
6: 11-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4-5 (A), 7-8-9-11 (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: ALL (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x7x1x3 = 126 x .50 = $63
All A's: 2x3x3x1x3 = 54 x .50 = $27
Backup: 2x3x3x1x3 = 54 x .50 = $27 (4-7 in 5th)

P4 Grid:

6: 11-12-13 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4-5 (A), 7-8-9-11 (B), - (C)
8: 4 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
9: ALL (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x7x1x4 = 84 x .50 = $42
All A's: 3x3x1x4 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x3x1x4 = 36 x .50 = $18 (5 in 8th)

10th: Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Race goes through Brad Cox and his addition of Saudi Crown as lone speed really put this into quandary territory. Forte's blinkers should make him more involved early and Hit Show moving to Saez (6 of 14 with Cox) could see him in closer order too. Disarm saves ground and broke his MDN here. Angel of Empire always puts in a run and has slightly outworked Hit Show per Mike Welsch. Fascinating race where any of the 120 combinations of 1-2-3-4-5 is possible..

Best Value: #1 Disarm 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Angel of Empire 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Hit Show 6-1 5th

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF/TURF (DD)

Most Likely: #13 I'm Nervous Now 4th
Best Value: #12 Sandy's Garden 2nd
Next Best: #6 Saratoga Chrome 5th

12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 10f-OFF/TURF

Pletcher has a sparkling exacta possibility of She's Mo Bubbly & Fizzy! You can't make it up..

Best Value: #5 Callie's Gift WON ($5.10)
Next Best: #7 She's Mo Bubbly 2nd
Exotics Use: #13 Duke Girls 7th

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MCLM/$62.5k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Cute Khloe 6-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Adelie 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 The Flying Pharoah 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Ankyrah 6-1 WON ($10.20)

8th: San Diego H. (G2), 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Missed the Cut 5-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Defunded 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #5 American Admiral 6-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Slow Down Andy 5-1 2nd

9th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Impact Warrior 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Pegs A. K. Girl 8-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Ultimate Hy 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Gimme Mo Baby 20-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 Shocking Grey 12-1 9th

10th: Bing Crosby (G1), 3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #9 Sibelius 6-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Dr. Schivel 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 The Chosen Vron 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Super Add: #2 Spirit of Makena 4-1 12th

11th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #3 Caribbean King 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Smooth Salute 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Hula Candy 6-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Watsonville 6-1 WON ($10.60)

P5 Grid:

7: 3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 9-11 (A), 2-4-7-12 (B), - (C)
11: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x6x3 = 216 x .50 = $108
All A's: 2x3x2x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36

P4 Grid:

8: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 9-11 (A), 2-4-7-12 (B), - (C)
11: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Good luck!
Steve