Derby Trail Forums - 1/21: Fair Grounds (Road to LA Derby Day)

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: LA-MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

New Destiny (3-1 fave) has had plenty of chances. Looking elsewhere..

Best Value: #3 For Harper 9-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Olivia G 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Muchnorethanready 5-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Visionista 10-1 6th

2nd: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Some fancy pedigrees sprinkled in this stew led by $1.1MM Evergrande (Uncle Mo/Don Adam/Asmussen)..

Most Likely: #4 Evergrande 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Ichiban 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Destine to Race 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Souper Explosive 9-2 5th

3rd: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Mo Hope 5-1: From strong Sam Siegel family; Sneaky OK debut.. 2nd
Next Best: #6 Caglioso 4-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Sense You Asked 6-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Gametime Gladiator 6-1 4th

4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Curlin Serenade 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 My Aunt Snookie 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 L J's Emma 3-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Merlazza 9-2 2nd

5th: Marie Krantz Mem., F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Wave of Goodness 4-1 WON ($13.40)
Next Best: #2 Charlie's Penny 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Lake Lucerne 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Fancy Martini 8-1 6th

P5 Grid:

1: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 4 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
3: 6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 6-10 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

2: 4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 6-8 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
4: 6-10 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Spartan Queen 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Grapes for Eloise 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Comparative 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Lure'em In 8-1 6th

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Asmussen pair (#'s 3/5) the obvious focus, but Randy Bradshaw bought $250k Guadalajara (Justify) as a Book 2 KEE yrlg and instead of pinhooking him, added partners including Dino Baccari and the colt's co-breeders. Stabbing that there's something there and that today's the day to get him at a number..

Most Likely: #3 First Defender 3-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #9 Guadalajara 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 City Nights 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Kigali 5-1 3rd

P4 Grid:

4: 2-4-6-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4 (A), 5-9 (B), - (C)
7: 3-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 4x3x1x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

8th: Col. Bradley, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Originally a May 24th foal, 6yo Price Talk reached full maturity in 2nd half of last year and with 16 starts, is lightly-raced. May have a big year ahead..

Most Likely: #2 PRICE TALK 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 English Tavern 9-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Two Emmys 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Ready to Purrform 6-1 6th

9th: OC/N2L, 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Tapit's Conquest cross-entered in the Lecomte and since he's in a STK, is literally a game time decision for SCR call..

Most Likely: #3 Tapit's Conquest 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Invulnerable 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Silver Heist 8-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

5: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-5-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-9 (A), 1-5-8 (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x5x1x2 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x3x2x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

10th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Deep, contentious group led by Epicenter sib Onasa who visits oval where big brother broke out..

Best Value: #2 Onasa 5-1 9th
Next Best: #1 (POE) Fight'n Ready 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Mobster 3-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Presider 6-1 3rd

P4 Grid:

7: 3-5-9 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-2-3-8 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x2x6 = 60 x .50 = $30
All A's: 3x1x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12

11th: Kenner, 4+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Surveillance 3-1 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #11 Bango 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Manny Wah 9-5 3rd

12th: Silverbulletday, 3yo-F, 1,-70y (P3, DD)

Bust out debut winner Forest Chimes may be this good in 2nd asking. 4-1 to start but think she's going to attract money...

Best Value: #7 Forest Chimes 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Chop Chop 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 The Alys Look 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #1 Norah G 8-1 7th

13th: Louisiana (G3), 4+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Run Classic 4-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Zozos 3-1 -
Best Value: #9 Mr. Wireless 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Happy American 4-1 WON ($10.00)

14th: Lecomte (G3), 3yo, 8.5f

Anyone utilizing figs will see that this is a supremely well-matched group with no toss-outs and every combination of the 7 (SCR #6 Itzos) possible for the super. Instant Coffee, Asmussen and mojo stretchout runner Bromley are going to attract coin, which leads me to anticipate Two Phils (4-1 ML second choice) as a candidate to float up into value territory. Rivelli brought lone 3x winner in the field to town early to get work in over the track and regular pilot Loveberry in best form of his riding career. Had tactical sprint speed in CBY stake win and stalk and go success when winning the Street Sense and comes in as fast (or faster) as the ones who will be shorter numbers. The play..

Most Likely: #8 Two Phils 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Instant Coffee 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #1 Echo Again 6-1 DNF-Eased
Exotics Use: #3 Bromley 5-1 5th

P5 Grid:

10: 1-2-8 (A), 3-4-6 (B), - (C)
11: 10-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 7-8 (A), 1-3 (B), 2-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x3x1x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

11: 10-11 (A), 2 (B), - (C)
12: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 1-3-7-8 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x6 = $54 ($27 for .50)
All A's: 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12

Good luck!
Steve