Derby Trail Forums - 10/30: BEL@AQU (Closing Day); Churchill (Opening Day)

BELMONT@AQUEDUCT ~ CLOSING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-Mohawk, 3+, 8.5f-T (Must Pay P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 City Man 6-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #6 Sanctuary City 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Ocala Dream 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Cold Hard Cash 6-1 2nd

6th: NY-Iroquois, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Betsy Blue 2-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Venti Valentine 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Bank Sting 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Mosienko 9-2 8th

7th: NY-Maid O' the Mist, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Miracle 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Im Just Kidding 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Gambling Girl 7-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Security Code 8-1 5th

8th: NY-Ticonderoga, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Giacosa 5-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Finest Work 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Marvelous Maude 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Out of Sight 20-1 7th

9th: NY-Empire Distaff, F&M-3+, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #4 Sweet Mystery 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Brattle House 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Ice Princess 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Caragate 10-1 4th

10th: NY-Sleepy Hollow, 2yo, 1m

Best Value: #9 Quick to Accuse 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Canarsie 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Jackson Heights 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Starquist 6-1 3rd

Must Pay P6 Grid:

5: 1-6 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
6: 7 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
7: 8 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
8: 4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-7 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
10: 2-9 (A), - (B), 5-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x1x3x2x3x2 = $72
All A's: 2x1x1x2x2x2 = $16
Backups: $8 (3 in 5th) + $32 (5-6 in 6th) + $16 (5-7 in 10th)

P5 Grid:

6: 5 (A), 7 (B), 6 (C)
7: 5-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-9 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (6 in 6th)

P4 Grid:

7: 5-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 4-5-7 (A), - (B), 2-3-8 (C)
10: 2-9 (A), 5-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (2-3-8 in 9th)

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ OPENING DAY/STARS OF TOMORROW I

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Rags to Riches, 2yo-F, 8.5f (.20 Derby City P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Hoosier Philly 5-2 WON ($4.08)
Next Best: #7 Fun and Feisty 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 T Max 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Peacock Lass 3-1 4th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Winnemac Avenue 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Joking Way 5-2 WON ($3.92)
Exotics Use: #2 Golden Nugget Late SCR
Super Add: #12 Ridgepoint Road 15-1 10th

8th: OC/N1X, 2yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

CANCELLED

Best Value: #7 Highway Robber 12-1
Next Best Value: #11 Echo Again 5-2
Exotics Use: #9 Frank's Honor 7-2
Super Add: #6 Tapit's Conquest 3-1

9th: OC/N1X, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Bluelightspecial 20-1* 2nd (NOTE: 2 SCR's will cut this number in half)
Next Best: #9 Pretty Mischievous 6-5 WON ($2.76)
Exotics Use: #7 Jokes on Blue 5-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Santa Fe Gold Late SCR

10th: Street Sense (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 Jace's Road 7-2 8th
Next Best: #6 Red Route One 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Two Phil's 8-1 WON ($17.24)
Exotics Use: #7 Frosted Departure 6-1 7th

11th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Parkway 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Desert Wolf 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #11 Tapit Shoes 4-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Denington 6-1 WON ($14.88)

P5 Grid:

7: 8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 7-11 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C) CANCELLED
9: 4-9 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
10: 3-6 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

8: 7-11 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C) CANCELLED
9: 4-9 (A), 7 (B), - (C)
10: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

Good luck!
Steve