Derby Trail Forums - 4/2: Gulfstream (6th-14th); Oaklawn (5th-13th; X-C P5)

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- - 4/2: Gulfstream (6th-14th); Oaklawn (5th-13th; X-C P5) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=70928)

4/2: Gulfstream (6th-14th); Oaklawn (5th-13th; X-C P5)

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Ghostzapper (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Fearless 4-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #1 Commandeer 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Greatest Honour 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Capocostello 10-1 3rd

7th: Sand Springs, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Stunning Princess 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Stolen Holiday 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Crystal Cliffs 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Traffic Song 7-2 8th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Wish You Well 12-1 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #11 Easy to Love 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Frippet 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Inviting 8-1 4th

9th: Pan American (G2), 4+, 12f-T (Rainbow 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Gufo 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Next Best: #6 Temple 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Abaan 8-5 2nd
Super Add: #2 Mid Day Image 12-1 6th

10th: Sir Shackleton, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Girolamo's Attack 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Fortin Hill 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Collaborate 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Shivaree 12-1 6th

P4 Grid:

7: 3-5 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)
8: 4-11 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-5 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 2x2x3x2= 24 x .50 = $12 (A-C-A-A)

11th: Sanibel Island, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Hail To 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Mischievous Kiss 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Beechnut Trophy 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Ambiteuse 6-1 5th

12th: Gulfstream Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Kathleen O. 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Running Legacy 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Goddess of Fire 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Cancel This 20-1 5th

13th: Appleton (G3), 4+, 1m-T (DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Scarlett Sky 6-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Phantom Currency 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #9 English Bee 7-2 5th
Super Add: #8 Carpenter's Call 10-1 3rd

14th: Florida Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Simplification 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #6 Charge It 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 Steal Sunshine 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Pappacap 10-1 4th

P5 Grid:

10: 1-5 (A), 6-9 (B), - (C)
11: 1-2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
13: 2-7 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
14: 3-6 (A), - (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: 2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (A-A-C-A-A) + 2x3x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (A-A-A-A-C)

P4 Grid:

11: 1-2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 7 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
13: 2-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 3-6 (A), - (B), 2-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x3x2 = 54 x .50 = $27
All A's: 3x1x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backups: 3x1x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9 (A-A-A-C)

OAKLAWN

POST-SCRATCHES

OAKLAWN 5th: Carousel, F&M-4+, 6f (X-C P5, P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Frank's Rockette 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Joy's Rocket 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Lil Tootsie 3-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Acting Out 5-1 WON ($15.40)

X-C P5 Grid:

OP 5: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
AQ 8: 2-3-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
OP 9: 4 (A), 3-6-9 (B), - (C)
OP 10: 1-8 (A), 7-9 (B), - (C)
OP 12: 6 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x1x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (A-A-A-A-C)

6th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Plausible Denile 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 King Ottoman 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Western River 4-1 WON ($11.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Commander Compton 6-1 7th

7th: OC/N$Y, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Pharoah's Heart 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Mun Luv 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Sweet Tea 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Liberated Lady 10-1 3rd

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Bandit Point 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Drena's Star 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Wobberjod 9-2 6th
Super Add: #9 A C Expressway 7-2 2nd

AQUEDUCT 8th: Excelsior, 4+, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #3 First Constitution 1-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Untreated 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Forewarned 5-1 WON ($11.40)

OAKLAWN 9th: Oaklawn Mile, 4+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Cezanne 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Market Analysis 12-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Silver Prospector 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Necker Island 6-1 4th

P5 Grid:

5: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-4 (A), 6 (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), 7-9 (B), - (C)
9: 4 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4x1 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x2x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (A-A-A-A-C)

P4 Grid:

6: 4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 2-5 (A), 7-9 (B), - (C)
9: 3-4 (A), 6 (B), 9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backup: 2x3x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (A-A-A-C)

OAKLAWN 10th: Fantasy (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Dream Lith 8-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Heartyconstitution 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Yuugiri 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Bubble Rock 3-1 3rd

11th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Gar Hole 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Macron 7-2 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #9 Edge to Edge 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Supremacy 8-1 4th

OAKLAWN 12th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Secret Oath 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Chasing Time 12-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Doppelganger 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Barber Road 8-1 2nd

13th: AR-OC/N$Y, 4+, 6f

Best Value: #3 Chicken Hawk 5-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Bellamys Roan 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Ima Bling Cat 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 You Vee Zee 10-1 8th

P5 Grid:

9: 4 (A), 3-6 (B), 9-10 (C)
10: 1-7-8-9 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
11: 5 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
12: 6 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
13: 2-3-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x2x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x4x1x1x4 = 16 x .50 = $8
Backups: 2x4x1x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16 (C-A-A-A-A) + 1x4x1x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16 (A-A-A-C-A)

P4 Grid:

10: 1-7-8-9 (A), 4-6 (B), - (C)
11: 5 (A), 8 (B), - (C)
12: 6 (A), - (B), 2-4-8-9 (C)
13: 2-3-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x1x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 4x1x1x4 = $16 ($8 for .50)
Backups: 4x1x4x4 = 64 x .50 = $32 (A-A-C-A)

Good luck!
Steve

Why is the C picks for race #14 at Gulfstream 2,7 when your next two picks were 5,11, or is that just a misprint

Quote:

Originally Posted by maryhope (Post 1162683)

Why is the C picks for race #14 at Gulfstream 2,7 when your next two picks were 5,11, or is that just a misprint

Not a misprint. It's the difference between playing the race vertically for a score (keying Simplification/Charge It with exotics candidate prices like 5-Pappacap/9-O Captain/11-Steal Sunshine under) versus horizontally (multis) covering win candidates like 2-Classic Causeway/7-White Abarrio that I'm a bit 'against' (but are far from impossible)..

There's nothing gained in selections by tabbing the top 4 favorites (3-2-6-7). It's more likely to me that a a price or two works their way into the tri/super, so I'm playing with 10-1 Pappacap, 20-1 O Captain & 30-1 Steal Sunshine with the 2 logicals I like best in Simplification and Charge It.

So look at the tri plays like this.. If any of the prices get in the tri with Simplification or Charge It, you'll get a nice score. If 2 of the prices come in under Simplification or Charge It, you'll get a bonanza. I'll also add a small win saver on the 3 prices as sanity insurance.

3-6 w/ 3-6 w/ 5-9-11 (2x1x3)

3-6 w/ 5-9-11 with 3-6 (2x3x1)

3-6 w/ 5-9-11 w/ 5-9-11 (2x3x2)

Thank you Steve for your reply to my question, that was kind of you to explain your thoughts, I been following you for years and think you are the best handicapper I know, you are a great asset to the horse industry, good luck today and God bless you and your family

Quote:

Originally Posted by maryhope (Post 1162688)

Thanks for the generous compliments. Greatly appreciated.

how would that method hit twice? no questioning,, just dont get it thanks

I've hit the trifecta the last 25 years of every race run during that time. I just box all/all/all.

I'd love to discuss further but I don't have much time between hopping on my private jet and banging my super model wife.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli (Post 1162703)

Thats the Beauty of it! Would love to discuss, and have been doing my own sports handicapping shows on other sports. I always tip my cap to folks like Steve, as it is from them that I have been able to put many of these winning aspects together.

I have always been in love with Horses since my first visit at 8 years of age to Santa Anita. Dropped a note years ago thanking Steve for what he does and mentioned my opportunity to work with Gordon Jones at Sams town in Late 90s.
He and I did a few shows in sports books where we correlated ML baseball parlays, similar to horses.

Pick 3s 4s pick 6, but in parlays, it was a lot of fun a quite profitable.

Most respect I have for any professional sports handicappers, are with the horses.

Would love to do The Byk Show, but you dont hear any D-listers with Steve.

LOL Really appreciate you Mr. Byk

You’d love to discuss and have been invited to do so.

Maybe a “I misspoke” vs. this misdirection/bootlicking that hasn’t fooled anyone?

Let us know.

Quote:

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli (Post 1162783)

Apologies Gentlemen,
I was at the track watching a few 3 year old races and not monitoring the internet.

It is pretty simple to understand. I respect Gamlin and will answer a bit of the question. Truthfully I am not real fond of divulging betting tactics as after all we are competing for the same exotic pools. Giving away Trifecta formulas only hinders the pot.

This is why Steve is a class act. The most selfless capper and genuine guy in the business. I shall strive to understand that way of thinking and answer Gamlin on a PM.

Fantastic day yesterday Steve!!

Tell us you’re full of **** without actually saying it

In an effort to be fair, I’ll explain why people seem perplexed at what you’re saying. It makes no sense.

You can’t box the bet you describe. You can’t go two horses over three horses over all and then box that.

You said you had this great formula. It made no sense so people questioned you…to which you responded you’d love to discuss it. Then you said you’re not divulging secrets.

If you’re just trolling…Bravo.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 1162784)

Tell us you’re full of **** without actually saying it

:tro:

Quote:

Originally Posted by UncleBenelli (Post 1162812)

You are assuming I care? Response was given to Gamlin, and you are incorrect and sound as silly as a ticket tacker.

Well you cared enough to respond. But I like this new attitude now that you’ve been exposed as being a fraud.

It’s okay. Lots of people are completely full of sh.it online.