Derby Trail Forums - 7/31: Saratoga (Day 13; 4th-11th; X-C P5)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MCLM/$40k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P5, P3, DD)

Tricky start to the Middle P5 with a rather muddled bunch..

Best Value: #8 Brennan's War 6-1: 2nd timer may be the frog with least warts.. 2nd ~ CapOTB Play of the Day
Next Best: #7 High Tone 5-2: Just missed v. open; returns to own kind here.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Tough Workout 5-1: Forward going Rudy/Repole improved on lawn.. 4th
Super Add: #10 Tamburro's Sox 8-1: Donk 2nd out 1/2 to OK on turf barnmate Catorat.. 9th

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Honey Money 9-2 WON ($7.10)
Next Best: #4 Behind the Couch 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Ok Honey 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Beautiful Karen 7-2 2nd

6th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Next Best: #2 Nyquest Nix 10-1: Pricey Nyquist hales from classy female turf family (Alice Springs, et al).. 5th
Next Best: #7 Ohtwoohthreefive 2-1: OK enough in debut; Cancel blind without a cane currently.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Dowagiac Chief 12-1: Amoss touts positive ROI stretching out while going turf to dirt.. 4th
Super Add: #1 Sweeping Giant 6-1: Outworked by SCR'd stablemate, but better bred for grass than him.. 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Invincible Gal, who broke her MDN here last summer, drops from top company while adding Lasix and donning hood for Motion & chilly Johnny..

Most Likely: #2 Invincible Gal 3-1 5th
Next Best: #7 High Opinion 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Best Value: #1 Rivendell 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Love And Thunder 2-1 2nd

MONMOUTH 10th: Monmouth Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Cross Country P5 starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Midnight Obsession 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Allworthy 7-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Leader of the Band 9-2 WON ($22.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Edie Meeny Miny Mo 4-1 2nd

SARATOGA 8th: A. G. Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 MISCHIEVOUS ALEX 2-1 8th
Best Value: #5 Three Technique 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Special Reserve 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Whitmore 4-1 3rd

Mandatory Special P5 Grid:

4: 7-8 (A), 4-10 (B), 2-5 (C)
5: 4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-7 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), 5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (2-5) + $18 (5)

WOODBINE 9th: ALW/N1Y, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Souper Munnings 8-1 WON ($7.90)
Next Best: #2 Grey Seal 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Scatter the Clouds 5-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Golden Garter 20-1 4th

SARATOGA 9th: Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Essential Quality 1-2 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #4 Keepmeinmind 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Masqueparade 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Weyburn 6-1 4th

SARATOGA 10th: Bowling Green (G2), 4+, 11f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #1 Channel Cat 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Moon Over Miami 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Rockemperor 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Cross Border 9-2 WON ($14.40)

CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

MTH 10: 2-6 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
SAR 8: 2 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
WO 9: 1-2-5-7 (A), 3-9 (B), - (C)
SAR 9: 5 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
SAR 10: 1-4-7 (A), 2-3-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x4x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
.50 Backups: $24 (5-9) + $24 (2-4)

11th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #3 Morocco 9-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Vettori Kin 6-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Tizzarunner 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Sharp Prospect 4-1 4th

P6 P5 Grid:

7: 2-7 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)
8: 2 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
9: 5 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
10: 1-2-4-7 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
11: 1-3 (A), 7-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x1x1x4x2 = 16 x .50 = $8
.50 Backups: $16 (5-9) + $16 (2-4)

P4 Grid:

8: 2 (A), - (B), 5-9 (C)
9: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
10: 1-2-4-7 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
11: 1-3 (A), 7-10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x2x6x4 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A's: 1x2x4x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)
.50 Backups: $16 (5-9) + $4 (2)

Good luck!
Steve