Derby Trail Forums - 7/25: Saratoga (Vanderbilt, Ballston Spa; Cross Country P5)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Stand alone event between the 2 P5's and pretty attractive as betting proposition with some big prices to utilize while warily respecting 5-2 Mojovation and the 3-1 Dubb entry..

Best Value: #2 Autostrade 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Coltandmississippi 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Aristocratic 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Preamble 15-1 5th

7th: ALW, 3yo, 1m-Inner (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

With the faves (#7 Proven/#8 Lonesome) taking real money, Perjury Trap should be at least a $10 horse and as a son of Blame may exponentially improve as a first time 3yo. Kingmeister now with Shug as part of the Don Adam/Courtland ex-pats and may be way better on the turf being out of excellent GSP Gold d'Oro who won 4 of her 5 on the lawn..

Best Value: #6 Perjury Trap 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Proven Strategies 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Lonesome Fugitive 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Kingmeister 8-1 3rd

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Prioritize 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #4 Bluegrasscat's Smile 15-1 7th
Next Best: #1a Money Moves 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Leitione 8-1 8th

WOODBINE 9th: ALW/N$Y, F&M-3+, 7f-T (X-C P5 Leg A, DD)

Cross Country P5 starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Coach Lori 4-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Fairywren 5-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Grey Seal 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Millennium Force 3-1 10th

MONMOUTH 11th: S/H'cap, 3+, 8.5f-OFF/TURF (X-C P5 Leg B, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 Croatian WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #12 Bustoff 5th

9th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (X-C P5 Leg C, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 MO READY 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Barleewon 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Jimmy Jazz 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Simply 4-1 9th

WOODBINE 10th: Opt CLM/C, 3+, 6.5f (X-C P5 Leg D, .20 Jackpot Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Cohiba Ghost 5-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Red Heirarchy 3-1 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Keen Artie 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 News Flash 20-1 5th

10th: 36th Vanderbilt/A Phenomenon (G1), 3+, 6f (X-C P5 Leg E, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Volatile 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #2 Whitmore 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Mind Control 6-1 3rd

Cross Country P5 Grid:

WO 9: 1-4 (A), 6-8 (B), - (C)
MTH 11: 11 (A), - (B), 12 (C)
SAR 9: 4-7-9 (A), - (B), 2-3-5 (C)
WO 10: 1-12 (A), 5-8 (B), 2-13 (C)
SAR 10: 2-4-5 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups (A+C): $18 (w/ 2-3-5) + $18 (w/ 2-8) + $12 (1-3) = $48

11th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-Inner

VERY well-matched group of diploma-seeking state bred fillies. Pletcher drops Micromillion down, adds hood and moves her to turf where sire Micromanage is hitting at a 19% clip (though curiously 0/5 'first time turf')..

Most Likely: #6 Micromillion 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Brovia 9-2 7th
Best Value: #11 Frenchie Frou Frou 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Timeless Journey 4-1 WON ($8.00)

P5 Grid:

7: 6-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-4-6 (A), 7 (B), 3-5 (C)
9: 7 (A), 4-9 (B), 2-3 (C)
10: 4 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
11: 5-6-7-11 (A), - (B), 3-8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x1x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x1x1x4 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 1-4-6-7 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
9: 7 (A), 4-9 (B), 2-3 (C)
10: 2-4 (A), 5 (B), 1-3 (C)
11: 5-6-7-11 (A), - (B), 3-8-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 4x1x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16

Good luck!
Steve