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-   -   Odds on our top ten going for the Gallivan Cup and wagers here (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66983)

DonGuido 10-31-2019 09:21 AM

Odds on our top ten going for the Gallivan Cup and wagers here
 
So here's the deal for those competing for the Gallivan Cup. You can wager a bank roll of $100 cyber cash on no more than 4 players or just 1,2,or 3. JolyB, our resident odds maker math wizard, will calculate the final odds based on the wagers. WIN wagers only.

This is fun but ya only get bragging rights if your ROI comes in the best.
____________________________________________

5-2 JolyB - one of our best for sure but somehow the BC days have not been kind to him
4-1 Ruffian-333 - our Colorado Cat is unpredictably good but again BC days seem to have eluded her mystical magic 8-ball
5-1 Cal828 - our new member who has shown that he REALLY knows what he's doing. An unknown on bid days but he's a good bet for sure.
3-1 Real Quiet - has nailed the Gallivan Cup before and can easily add another to his mantel. He's a proven winner.
7-2 DonGuido - has had an off year by his standards but has a affinity for the Gallivan Cup challenge. He may have to enlarge the size of his trophy case again as the defending Champ.
5-1 Plenilune is sneaky good and can pull off a great showing any time. Watch out for this smart horse lady.
7-1 Cruzan200246 - may be the "wise guy" bet who is always dangerous.
6-1 Roamin42 - truly a savant when it comes to wagering the right horses. He has to be considered as a real contender. Beware!
9-1 Indian Hemp - very knowledgeable when he's on the gate, nice long shot bet for a big return
9-1 NJ Stinks - similar to IH, NJ certainly can take is all home. Another wise guy get.
_____________________________________________

Revised to include Indian Hemp and NJ Stinks.

JolyB 10-31-2019 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonGuido (Post 1132005)
JolyB - somehow the BC days have not been kind to him

In fairness, I should point out that is not the fault of the BC days, but of my habitual overthinking of these races. I've never been able to grasp the "study long, study wrong" school of handicapping.

Don Guido, I want to play in your wagering emporium. The odds you set have the best payout in town. If the house paid out at those odds, they would be broke in no time.:rolleyes:

I'll be glad to calculate the pari-mutuel odds on our collective choices after all bets are in. I presume that the deadline is prior to the first of Friday's races.

Real Quiet 10-31-2019 12:32 PM

I only track ROI and both Indian Hemp and NJ Stinks have participated enough.

cal828 10-31-2019 01:00 PM

6-1 on Roamin? If we were betting real dollars, I'd be betting a dump truck load on that. I think his odds ought to be 1 to 10 considering his play during the last year. I think he had 4 or 5 $1000+ days did he not? As for myself, I should be 20 or 30 to 1. I totally bombed last year. Didn't even hit the board, as I recall and that after spending half the night studying.:eek:

On that over thinking thing, Joly, join the club. I can take something as simple as opening a can of beans and make it as difficult as sending humans to Mars.:zz::wf

DonGuido 10-31-2019 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cal828 (Post 1132015)
6-1 on Roamin? If we were betting real dollars, I'd be betting a dump truck load on that. I think his odds ought to be 1 to 10 considering his play during the last year. I think he had 4 or 5 $1000+ days did he not? As for myself, I should be 20 or 30 to 1. I totally bombed last year. Didn't even hit the board, as I recall and that after spending half the night studying.:eek:

On that over thinking thing, Joly, join the club. I can take something as simple as opening a can of beans and make it as difficult as sending humans to Mars.:zz::wf

Cal this wager is for points totals for the two days of BC races. ROI is not considered, and if it was I agree 1-10 odds for Roamin would be right on.

DonGuido 10-31-2019 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Real Quiet (Post 1132013)
I only track ROI and both Indian Hemp and NJ Stinks have participated enough.

The original thread has been updated to include both of them . . . my bad.

Roamin42 10-31-2019 01:12 PM

Cal828, thank you for the confidence. As far as lookin long and pickin wrong is a true thing. After over 60 years of lookin at the Form, I can't tell you how many times I did that. Its only the past few years that I stick with my 1st choice. I finally got wise to myself and stop 2nd guessing myself. Anyway I am lookin forward to the weekend. Good luck to you on your choices.

RUFFIAN 10-31-2019 02:07 PM

Purrrsnickety Purrring Pix
 
CLAIRVOYANT OR CHAOTIC CHOICES :eek:
PSYCHIC OR PSYCHOTIC :zz:

ROAMIN = $25

CRUZAN = $25

'RUFF N READY' = $50

NOT THAT I BELIEVE I CAN WIN THIS
SELF CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY IN DOUBT :confused:
BUT WITHOUT IT ALL WE HAVE LEFT
IS A TEAR STAINED FACE & A POUT! :(

Real Quiet 10-31-2019 02:28 PM

$75 Win Plenilune

$25 Win NJ Stinks

Roamin42 10-31-2019 02:31 PM

RUFFIAN-$50

Cal828--$25

Real Quiet-$25

cal828 10-31-2019 05:41 PM

Joly and Ruffian have been in a see-saw battle for dominance for the last several weeks and hard to see-saw that changing.

$50 Ruffian :$::$:

$50 Joly :$::$:

Sorry Roamin. I was having a senior moment. I thought we were talking ROI, at which I definitely think you would blow us all away.

Roamin42 10-31-2019 06:14 PM

Thanks Cal828, as you can see I did not think I was in the running, my name ain't in there, lol as far as picks that I made.

RUFFIAN 10-31-2019 06:36 PM

“...Thanks Cal828, as you can see I did not think I was in the running, my name ain't in there,lol”

ROAMIN

YOUR NAME IS DEFINITELY IN THE TOP TEN LIST!

JolyB - one of our best for sure but somehow the BC days have not been kind to him
4-1 Ruffian-333 - our Colorado Cat is unpredictably good but again BC days seem to have eluded her mystical magic 8-ball
5-1 Cal828 - our new member who has shown that he REALLY knows what he's doing. An unknown on bid days but he's a good bet for sure.
3-1 Real Quiet - has nailed the Gallivan Cup before and can easily add another to his mantel. He's a proven winner.
7-2 DonGuido - has had an off year by his standards but has a affinity for the Gallivan Cup challenge. He may have to enlarge the size of his trophy case again as the defending Champ.
5-1 Plenilune is sneaky good and can pull off a great showing any time. Watch out for this smart horse lady.
7-1 Cruzan200246 - may be the "wise guy" bet who is always dangerous.


==> 6-1 Roamin42 - truly a savant when it comes to wagering the right horses. He has to be considered as a real contender. Beware!


9-1 Indian Hemp - very knowledgeable when he's on the gate, nice long shot bet for a big return
9-1 NJ Stinks - similar to IH, NJ certainly can take is all home. Another wise guy get.
__________________________________

Real Quiet 11-01-2019 06:00 AM

While I have no news I just want to take a second to pass on good thoughts for El Prado who may be MIA but not forgotten.

JolyB 11-01-2019 06:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Real Quiet (Post 1132049)
While I have no news I just want to take a second to pass on good thoughts for El Prado who may be MIA but not forgotten.

RQ, I'd like to echo your thoughts.

cal828 11-01-2019 08:23 AM

I thought about her when I saw Don's list of players for the Cup. Hope she is doing well.

Plenilune 11-01-2019 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Real Quiet (Post 1132049)
While I have no news I just want to take a second to pass on good thoughts for El Prado who may be MIA but not forgotten.

Absolutely. I sent an email to her at the end of September but unfortunately have not heard back. She is very much missed!

Plenilune 11-01-2019 12:30 PM

$50 JolyB - so very tough

$25 DonGuido - fresh from layoff

$25 Plenilune - one never knows

JolyB 11-01-2019 02:52 PM

Don Guido: $40

Cal: $40

Indian Hemp: $20

Good luck to all.

JolyB 11-01-2019 03:54 PM

The first race has been run and the wagering has closed. We only had 6 participants in this game, and the small pool has undoubtedly skewed the odds to a very large extent. As you can see, the final odds are quite different than Don Guido's morning line; Some of the entrants reflect huge wagering value, while others may have been overbet - kind of like most every race we see. Every participant had a following.

Here are the final odds on each of the participants. In Don Guido's wagering emporium, there is no takeout AND no breakage. Even the odds calculator works for free (although he does get to enjoy a glass of Reisling while he works- therefore beware of errors)

Ruffian 3-1
Plenilune 5-1
JolyB 5-1
Cal828 8.23-1
Don Guido 8.23-1
Real Quiet 23-1
Roamin42 23-1
Cruzan200246 23-1
NJ Stinks 23-1
Indian Hemp 29-1

Good luck to all. I'll post the winner or winners of this contest after the points scores are official.


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