Derby Trail Forums - 9/21: Philadelphia Park (PA Derby/Cotillion Day)

PARX

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 7.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Runningforhome 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Buy Land and Sea 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Croi Mor 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Quick Enough 4-1 4th

5th: Alphabet Soup-PA, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Smooth B 10-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Pumpkin Rumble 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Taxable Goods 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #12 My Friend Frank 8-1 4th

6th: Plum Pretty-PA, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Imply 2-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Trace of Grace 9-2 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Rose Tree 5-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Sweet Maggie Mae 10-1 5th

7th: Turf Amazon, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Boos 6-5 (No longer POE) 3rd
Next Best: #3 Miss Gossip 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Too Much Tip 12-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Change of Control 4-1 5th

8th: Parx Dirt Mile, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Coal Front 1-1 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #7 Golden Brown 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Diamond King 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Forewarned 15-1 3rd

P4 Grid:

5: 1-3-6-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-3 (A), 8-9 (B), 5-7 (C)
8: 6-7 (A), 8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 4x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

$.50 Pick 4 (6-8-5-6) Paid $72.45 (A-A-C-A) ~ $16

9th: Gallant Bob (G3), 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 King Jack 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #6 Landeskog 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Strong Will 10-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Bulletin 4-1 5th

10th: Cotillion (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

An absolute corker in store here and there appears to be nothing but front-end interested fillies in here. The consensus is that a player from off the pace is the angle you want and Friday on ATR, James Scully, Ed DeRosa, Nick Tammaro and Dave Grening ALL tabbed Street Band (8-1) as that player. She certainly merits a long look, but note that there are 2 significant jockey changes occuring here on Horologist (Luis Saez) and Jaywalk (Rosario, who won BCup & Frizzette, back aboard). Horologist (15-1) is undefeated since stretching out to 1 mile and beyond and looks very dangerous stalking the speed at what will be a big number. Jaywalk's winter/spring campaign has people convinced she hasn't improved as a 3yo, but her Delaware and Monmouth Oaks efforts were in fact steps forward. The question Jaywalk (6-1) needs to answer is whether she can win without the lead, because she won't get it from the 11 hole. Rosario is certainly a guy that instills confidence if you need a rider to get one to relax while stalking outside. Meanwhile among the ML choices, favored Guarana (9-5) has questions of her own to answer and Serengeti Empress (7-2) is the filly to beat..

Best Value: #6 Horologist 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Serengeti Empress 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Guarana 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #11 Jaywalk 6-1 7th

11th: Pennsylvania Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

ML irrelevant after SCR of Maximum Security..

Most Likely: #2 Improbable 4th
Next Best: #6 Mr. Money 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 War of Will 3rd
Super Add: #5 Spun to Run 5th

P4 Grid:

8: 6-7 (A), 8 (B), 3-4-9 (C)
9: 6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 1-6-8 (A), 3-10-11 (B), 4-9 (C)
11: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

LAUREL PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Bald Eagle Derby, 3yo, 12f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Terrific card at LRL and this group going a mile and a half has a few prices that make it particularly appealing..

Best Value: #5 Zonda 15-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Jais's Solitude 5-2 2nd (DQ'd from WIN)
Exotics Use: #7 He's No Lemon 2-1 WON-Via DQ ($4.80)
Super Add: #6 Channel Island 6-1 5th

Good luck!
Steve