Derby Trail Forums - 8/17: Saratoga (5th-11th); Del Mar (X-C P5)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

Fun three-turn wagering affair..

Best Value: #5 Local Hero 15-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Devamani 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Stella d'Oro 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Westerland Late SCR

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (Empire 6, P3, DD)

Carotari form is obscured and his race 2 back can win this..

Best Value: #10 Carotari 8-1 WON ($17.60)
Next Best: #8 Sayyaaf 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Cohete Rojo 10-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Lonhtwist 10-1 4th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

All eyes here on Candy Tycoon, the Pletcher baby that has tongues wagging. But note Mrs. de Tomaso's Irish Mias who ran big in debut as well as Eagles Palace (Mott) and first Lasix American Butterfly (Lukas) who may improve in 2nd starts. Brown/Klarman's rail drawn Cost Basis & Wilkes/Marylou Estate's wide posted Feisty Bird are other first timers worth noting..

Most Likely: #4 Candy Tycoon 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Irish Mias 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 American Butterfly 12-1 WON ($46.20)
Super Add: #1 Cost Basis 6-1 7th

8th: Smart N Fancy, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Won't forget Ruby Notion showing up here last summer and shocking the soft turf Caress at nearly 30-1. She and Oleksandra (NHC players will know that name as the spa at Treasure Island) exit the G2 Royal North and may intercede on the more familiar faces..

Best Value: #9 Ruby Notion 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Oleksandra 7-2 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Morticia 1-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Fire Key 4-1 5th

9th: Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (X-C P5/Leg A, P3, DD)

X-C P5 starts here; Play at bottom of page..

SCR #7 Wildlife who runs in DMR Oaks..

Best Value: #6 Feel Glorious 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Varenka 3-1 WON-DH ($2.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Regal Glory 2-1 WON-DH ($3.10)
Super Add: #4 Blowout 5-2 3rd

10th: Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (X-C P5/Leg B, DD)

Champagne Anyone will need a career best to win, but trust Wilkes to have tightened screws on filly bred top and bottom for 10f trip. Explosive effort in Gulfstream Oaks the race to admire on page when reaching for her price today..

Best Value: #4 Champagne Anyone 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Dunbar Road 8-5 WON ($5.50)
Exotics Use: #7 Point of Honor 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Street Band 10-1 3rd

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f

Most Likely: #2 Sweet Meadow Mist 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 More Mischief 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Exotics Use: #6 Take Me to Hardoon 5-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Trouble for Skylar 6-1 7th

P5 Grid:

7: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
8: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
9: 1-6 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
10: 4 (A), 1-5 (B), 6-7-8 (C)
11: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), 7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x3x3 = 216 x .50 = $108
All A's: 2x3x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)
9: 1-6 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
10: 1-4 (A), 5-7 (B), 6-8 (C)
11: 2-5-6 (A), - (B), 7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/1,5,7,8/1,9/4,5) Paid $45.12 x 2 = $90.25

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Must Pay $2 P6, P3, DD)

Like the SAR 7th, this is going to be a very productive group. There are highly anticipated firsters here like Honor A.P. (Honor Code/Hollywood Story), but they may need experience and added distance. Ginobili disappointed in debut for Slam Dunk, but recall that Baltas expected big things and it appears he's benefitted from the outing. This is the opportunity to take the 12-1..

Best Value: #6 Ginobili 12-1 WON ($41.40)
Next Best: #7 Bronn 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Tizamagician 9-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Hydrogen 7-2 3rd

7th: Del Mar H. (G2), 3+, 11f-T (X-C P5/Leg C, P5, P3, DD)

SCR United who is among the sick horses in the Mandella barn..

Best Value: #4 Markie's Water 7-2 7th
Next Best: #6 The Great Day 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Itsinthepost 7-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Blended Citizen 20-1 4th

8th: Torry Pines (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Fighting Mad 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #3 Classic Fit 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Into Chocolate 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Sneaking Out 7-2 6th

9th: Del Mar Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (X-C P5/Leg D, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Cambier Parc 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #5 Raymundo's Secret 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Mucho Unusual 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #14 Hidden Message 8-1 2nd

10th: Pacific Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (X-C P5/Leg E, DD)

The more I looked at this race, the less I liked the obvious players with the 10f weighing heavily on my thoughts. Pavel? 8/0-1-2 at 10f.. War Story? 5/0-0-0 at the trip.. Quip? Distorted Humor out of an Indian Charlie mare and nowhere at the 9.5f in the Preakness.. Seeking the Soul has only tried the classic distance in the Dubai World Cup (8th), but he's at least bred for the journey. I'm reaching for John Sadler who has been drilling his runners (Higher Power & Campaign) like Baffert with 1m gallop outs. Higher Power (Md'O out of Seattle Slew mare Alternate making him half to PIM Special winner Alternation) has been improving with age and may want every bit of a classic mile and a quarter. Campaign is by Curlin out of the Dynaformer mare (and Arch sister) Arania and has already won multiple times at 12f on turf and dirt. Tenfold misfired in the Travers, but proved out at the voyage winning the PIM Special 90 days ago and running a bang up 3rd in the Preakness last year..

Best Value: #6 Higher Power 8-1 WON ($21.20)
Next Best: #8 Campaign 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Seeking the Soul 3-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Tenfold 8-1 4th

11th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Betty F 5-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Salsa Bella 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #1 True to Herself 8-1 9th
Super Add: #11 An Eddie Surprise 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #2 Woodlin 10-1 3rd

P5 Grid:

7: 4-6 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)
8: 3-7 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
9: 1 (A), - (B), 5-10 (C)
10: 5-6-8 (A), - (B), 2-3-7 (C)
11: 1-7-8 (A), 2-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x1x3x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x1x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

8: 3-7 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
9: 1-5-10 (A), - (B), 4-7-14 (C)
10: 6-8 (A), 5-7 (B), 2-3 (C)
11: 1-7-8 (A), 2-11 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

Cross Country P5 Grid:

SAR 9: 1-6 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
SAR 10: 1-4 (A), 5-7 (B), 6-8 (C)
DMR 7: 4-6 (A), - (B), 3-7 (C)
DMR 9: 1 (A), - (B), 5-10 (C)
DMR 10: 5-6-7-8 (A), - (B), 1-2-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x1x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16

Good luck!
Steve