Derby Trail Forums - 7/12: Saratoga (Day 2; Forbidden Apple)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Derby Memories 6-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #5 French Revolution 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Oso Negro 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Legion Storm 9-2 3rd

2nd: NY-MSW, 3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Daddy Knows 1-1 WON ($3.50)
Next Best: #1a Overland 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Curlin's Legacy 20-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Crazy Life 9-2 3rd

3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Dream Passage 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Complicit 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Conquest Hardcandy 4-1 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #1a Pauseforthecause 6-1 5th

4th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Orpheus 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Soul P Say 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Big Muddy 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #4 Kahramani 5-1 7th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Three first crop sires involved here, with Summer Front (Apurate/Pletcher) 1 for his first 6 runners, Tapiture (Lotta Ott/Asmussen) 5 for 15 (!) and Lea (Vast/Mott) 1 for 10..

Most Likely: #4 Lotta Ott 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Vast 6-1 WON ($27.80)
Next Best: #1 Apurate 7-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Good Shabbos 5-2 2nd

P5 Grid:

1: 3-5-8 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
2: 13 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
3: 3-4-6 (A), 1-5 (B), 7 (C)
4: 3-7 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
5: 4-6 (A), 1-2-3 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-5 (3/2,3,4,5,8,12,13/6/9/6) Paid $1,159.25 (A-A-A-C-A) ~ $54

P4 Grid:

2: 1-13 (A), - (B), 6-10 (C)
3: 3-4-6 (A), 1-5 (B), 7 (C)
4: 3-7 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
5: 1-4-6 (A), 2-3 (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x2x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (2,3,4,5,8,12,13/6/9/6) Paid $273.00 (A-A-C-A) ~ $48

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Super Dude 4th
Next Best: #2 Heavy Roller 6th
Exotics Use: #1e Repole entry WON/2nd ($6.50)

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Filly Dilly WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #15 Saloon Girl 2nd
Exotics Use: #16 Trouble for Skylar 3rd
Super Add: #3 Citizen Matzo 4th

8th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Doups Point 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Fiery Opal 6-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #2 Dreamzapper 3-1 5th

9th: Forbidden Apple (G3), 4+, 1m-IT (DD)

Terrific betting race, especially if you want to go against Voodoo Song. Shug-ah Bear seemed to light up Tuesday when I asked him about Doctor Mounty and though Johnny will need to work out a trip from the #10, footing is typically better on/near the crown when there's been rain. Worth a key at double digit odds..

Best Value: #10 Doctor Mounty 15-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Made You Look 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Offering Plan 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 First Premio 10-1 10th

10th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #5 Abby Normal 4th
Next Best: #2 Fight Night 2nd
Exotics Use: #15 Scarlet's Command 6th

P5 Grid:

6: 2-3 (A), - (B), 1 (C)
7: 9-15 (A), - (B), 3-16 (C)
8: 6 (A), 7 (B), 2 (C)
9: 2-4-6-10 (A), 1-5-7-8 (B), 3-9 (C)
10: 2-5 (A), - (B), 15 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x8x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x1x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16

P4 Grid:

7: 9-15 (A), 3-16 (B), - (C)
8: 6-7 (A), - (B), 2 (C)
9: 2-4-6-8-10 (A), 1-5-7 (B), 3-9 (C)
10: 2-5 (A), - (B), 15 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x8x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x5x2 = 40 x .50 = $20

Good luck!
Steve