Derby Trail Forums - 7/11: Saratoga (Opening Day)

SARATOGA ~ OPENING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM/N3L, 3+, 11.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Armament 3-1 WON ($11.40)
Best Value: #3 Blurred Line 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Real Dan 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Fed Fever 12-1 7th

2nd: MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

If rain hits it won't be until later, so make a note to yourself to keep a lookout for FTS (first time starter) Off the Record (MTO today) from Brisset when he turns up in a spot soon. May be a very good. horse. And you already know that MTO Ahead of Plan has talent..

Most Likely: #2 Sayaaf 6-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #3 Sneakiness 8-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Declined 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Hurricane Jake 8-1 6th

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Excellent ALW set going 9 clicks with trio of lightly raced sophs Walkoff (Pletcher), Growth Engine (C. Brown) & The Rock Says (Hough) facing off against group of hard-hitters. Potomac & The Rock Says look to vie for lead and note that Luis Saez sides with The Rock Says over 8x winner Vincento. If either of the point players get away with soft early fractions, they'll be tough to catch late..

Most Likely: #7 The Rock Says 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Walkoff 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Potomac 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Growth Engine 5-2 2nd

4th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Gosilently 9-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Bemma's Boy 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Local Hero 3-1 WON ($5.90)
Exotics Use: #6 Wilderness Gate 10-1 7th

5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ghostghostghost 5-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Impazible Donna 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Funfetti 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Keypit 12-1 5th

P4 Grid:

2: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-2-4-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-5-8 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C)
5: 3 (A), - (B), 6-7-9 (C)

All A's 2x5x3x1 = $30 ($15 for .50)
C Backups: $55

6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Pipes 7-2 8th
Next Best: #1a (POE) Veterans Beach 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Light the Posse 10-1 WON ($31.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Fled SCR

7th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Never be afraid to try prices in these NY-bred turf ALW's. They invariably produce some of the summer's juiciest results..

Best Value: #10 Wegetdamunnys 6-1 WON ($7.70)
Next Best: #4 Giant Zinger 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Classic Lady 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Wish Upon 12-1 4th

8th: Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Looks like a madcap scramble on the front end, which gives pause to figure out who might sit and pounce..

Best Value: #9 Kiss the Girl 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Comical 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Shippy 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Lady Fatima 12-1 8th

9th: Quick Call (G3), 3yo, 5.5f-T (DD)

Five surface switchers ~ and the possibility we see rain by this point ~ complicate this group..

Most Likely: #4 Listing 4-1 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #10 Sombeyay 6-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Elektronic 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Call Paul 5-2 7th

10th: MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF

OFF THE TURF: 13/SCR-7/SCR-12 WON ($4.10)

Good luck!
Steve