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-   -   5 star lock....of the week (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65806)

RHT2004 02-19-2019 02:05 PM

5 star lock....of the week
 
Thursday, Gulfstream Race 4
#3 Fast Talking. 8-1ml is a pipe dream. Im guessing 5-2.

knickslions2 02-19-2019 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1122185)
Thursday, Gulfstream Race 4
#3 Fast Talking. 8-1ml is a pipe dream. Im guessing 5-2.

You’ll get way better then 5-2. It will be closer to 8-1 then 5-2.

RHT2004 02-19-2019 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1122186)
You’ll get way better then 5-2. It will be closer to 8-1 then 5-2.

No shot.

knickslions2 02-19-2019 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1122187)
No shot.

If no one scratches the 1,2, 5, and 6 will be lower then that horse. Be happy if you like him you’ll get paid if he wins.

RHT2004 02-19-2019 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1122188)
If no one scratches the 1,2, 5, and 6 will be lower then that horse. Be happy if you like him you’ll get paid if he wins.

I dont see it. Its Shug and Ortiz always bet. Plus the speed in an overall weak field.

blackthroatedwind 02-19-2019 05:12 PM

He's the speed, but unless he has a strong workout report, I don't see how he's 5:2. 8:1 is silly but 4:1 doesn't seem impossible without scratches. He's not really that appealing on paper, save his pace advantage.

Is there some story out about him?

RHT2004 02-19-2019 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 1122196)
He's the speed, but unless he has a strong workout report, I don't see how he's 5:2. 8:1 is silly but 4:1 doesn't seem impossible without scratches. He's not really that appealing on paper, save his pace advantage.

Is there some story out about him?

No story that i know of. The 2/5 and 2/16 works look good to me though.

casp0555 02-19-2019 05:19 PM

both outside runners first time blinks, if Jose can get the jump on the 1 and hold position on the rail, maybe the 5/6 slug it out....that Tapit will be tough, I think a 3,4 exacta box is my play barring any scratches
good luck

RHT2004 02-19-2019 05:26 PM

The 5 hasn't really done much running and he feels like the one who will be overbet to me. Botero who beat him last time was going 1st time Mott from Baffert. He ran OK that day, but then bombed stretching out. Not much horse IMO.

knickslions2 02-19-2019 07:18 PM

6-1 7-1 at best

blackthroatedwind 02-19-2019 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1122202)
6-1 7-1 at best

It's a six horse field with one horse with no chance. He cannot possibly be that high.

RHT2004 02-19-2019 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2 (Post 1122202)
6-1 7-1 at best

No freaking shot. If he's 6-1, he probably cant win. At worst Andy is right and its somewhere in the middle. But he is much more likely to be bet 5-2 then 6-1.

RHT2004 02-19-2019 08:07 PM

Ill go a step further if he's 6-1 at any point in the betting he's no longer a lock. This is the type that shows in the double, opens at 8-5, nd eventually goes off around 5-2.

RHT2004 02-19-2019 08:10 PM

Ill throw out another horse im interested im on Thursday.
Aqu 8th.
Storm Prophet. Obviously would need a fair track, but he feels very dangerous at a decent price. I love the way Maragh is riding....

blackthroatedwind 02-19-2019 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1122205)
Ill go a step further if he's 6-1 at any point in the betting he's no longer a lock. This is the type that shows in the double, opens at 8-5, nd eventually goes off around 5-2.

I agree about the 6:1 and having no shot. He's not winning at over 9:2 and is unlikely to even be that high.

blackthroatedwind 02-19-2019 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1122207)
Ill throw out another horse im interested im on Thursday.
Aqu 8th.
Storm Prophet. Obviously would need a fair track, but he feels very dangerous at a decent price. I love the way Maragh is riding....

He's live but that's a very hard race. Probably the most interesting race we have run in a while ( no need for the obvious easy jokes:D ).

cakes44 02-19-2019 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1122207)
I love the way Maragh is riding....

You don’t hear that every week.

Alabama Stakes 02-21-2019 01:08 PM

9/5 as joe Rockhead 5 star release is pounded by the bettors.

Alabama Stakes 02-21-2019 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RHT2004 (Post 1122185)
Thursday, Gulfstream Race 4
#3 Fast Talking. 8-1ml is a pipe dream. Im guessing 5-2.

Did you bet yet ?

Alabama Stakes 02-21-2019 01:12 PM

Nice job. $10.80 winner. Doublle was huge 0ff big fave paid $17.40


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