Derby Trail Forums

Derby Trail Forums (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/index.php)
-   The Paddock (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2)
-   -   i dont know,maybe i saw another race (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=64157)

ontheoutside 04-08-2018 07:12 AM
i dont know,maybe i saw another race
 
I know im 88 and my eyes fail me a lot, but can someone explain what jerry bailey and randy moss were talking about? to me they were downgrading justify because he didn't win by 6/ are you kidding me?

I think I heard one of them say because the fraction was 112 and change for 3 quarters they were expecting a explosion and a win by open lengths

I saw a horse take advantage of no one chasing him to 3 quarters
I saw a jockey neverhit the horse until inside the 16th pole and I saw the horse then open up to extend his lead and they were taps not whips

are you not supposed to save your horse as most you can while winning if circumstance arises? they both said these 2 horses didn't scare anyone away from kentuck derby im glad they said that becausae I cant wait to unload on justify and mayme with therecomments he goes from 5-2 to now 4 to 1 thank you

RolloTomasi 04-08-2018 07:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ontheoutside (Post 1107821)
I know im 88 and my eyes fail me a lot, but can someone explain what jerry bailey and randy moss were talking about? to me they were downgrading justify because he didn't win by 6/ are you kidding me?


I think I heard one of them say because the fraction was 112 and change for 3 quarters they were expecting a explosion and a win by open lengths

I saw a horse take advantage of no one chasing him to 3 quarters
I saw a jockey neverhit the horse until inside the 16th pole and I saw the horse then open up to extend his lead and they were taps not whips

are you not supposed to save your horse as most you can while winning if circumstance arises? they both said these 2 horses didn't scare anyone away from kentuck derby im glad they said that becausae I cant wait to unload on justify and mayme with therecomments he goes from 5-2 to now 4 to 1 thank you
The post-race hyperbole went both ways. Another website's article on the race described Mike Smith's "masterful" ride with details that only the author seemed to imagine.

True Smith probably let Justify float out to encourage Bolt D'Oro to alter course towards the rail, but it created a new problem when Justify kept floating out and failed to switch leads.

And those were not "taps" that Justify felt from Smith's whip. He got a good one on his right side and then started to drifty noticeably towards the rail (the "masterful" article presumptively suggested Smith did this on purpose to put Bolt D'Oro onto the "deepest part of the track"). Smith then had to switch to his left hand and gave Justify 3 more good cracks.

I'm not convinced Smith saved anything.

ontheoutside 04-08-2018 11:21 AM
ok im glad you saw it that way
 
im sure I missed a lot of that but its good to get other perspective

freddymo 04-08-2018 01:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi (Post 1107823)
The post-race hyperbole went both ways. Another website's article on the race described Mike Smith's "masterful" ride with details that only the author seemed to imagine.

True Smith probably let Justify float out to encourage Bolt D'Oro to alter course towards the rail, but it created a new problem when Justify kept floating out and failed to switch leads.

And those were not "taps" that Justify felt from Smith's whip. He got a good one on his right side and then started to drifty noticeably towards the rail (the "masterful" article presumptively suggested Smith did this on purpose to put Bolt D'Oro onto the "deepest part of the track"). Smith then had to switch to his left hand and gave Justify 3 more good cracks.

I'm not convinced Smith saved anything.

I thoroughly enjoyed the DRF Pace guy presuming the pace was very slow instead of taking a deep breath and waiting for evidence. Apparently, the pace was NOT very slow and speed figures from all concerns were a lifetime best for Justify not to mention the fastest of any colt perhaps since the great Materiality's Florida Derby

RolloTomasi 04-08-2018 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 1107840)
I thoroughly enjoyed the DRF Pace guy presuming the pace was very slow instead of taking a deep breath and waiting for evidence. Apparently, the pace was NOT very slow and speed figures from all concerns were a lifetime best for Justify not to mention the fastest of any colt perhaps since the great Materiality's Florida Derby
Perhaps a prescient allusion on your part. Materiality, like Justify, earned his Derby points in a Grade 1 in his 3rd career start after debuting in a sprint just a couple of months beforehand. Not a particularly fruitful outcome for the Triple Crown races for the former.

Coincidentally, Materiality was bred by John Gunther who also bred Justify. Actually, John Gunther also bred Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso and while he is not listed as breeder on Blue Grass winner Good Magic, he has been an owner/breeder of many key horses from Good Magic's female family including several of Glinda The Good's (dam of Good Magic) half sisters.

Should get the Eclipse for top breeder for this weekend alone.

Merlinsky 04-08-2018 10:03 PM
Yeah I thought they were delusional. Bailey, I think, said he was all out, but if he didn't change leads and the track wasn't the fastest thing ever he's gonna seem like he's working more. They seemed disappointed and I just shook my head. He's had 3 races and gone 101, 104, 107. What'd ya need, fellas? A 110?

Turns out Bolt D'Oro grabbed his front, not that I think that sunk him. I think he'd be the kind of horse to power through something like that but I know the reaction to that kind of thing varies.
Pic: https://twitter.com/MargaretDammit/s...62141252894721

Rupert Pupkin 04-09-2018 12:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ontheoutside (Post 1107821)
I know im 88 and my eyes fail me a lot, but can someone explain what jerry bailey and randy moss were talking about? to me they were downgrading justify because he didn't win by 6/ are you kidding me?

I think I heard one of them say because the fraction was 112 and change for 3 quarters they were expecting a explosion and a win by open lengths

I saw a horse take advantage of no one chasing him to 3 quarters
I saw a jockey neverhit the horse until inside the 16th pole and I saw the horse then open up to extend his lead and they were taps not whips

are you not supposed to save your horse as most you can while winning if circumstance arises? they both said these 2 horses didn't scare anyone away from kentuck derby im glad they said that becausae I cant wait to unload on justify and mayme with therecomments he goes from 5-2 to now 4 to 1 thank you
Where did you get the idea that Jerry Bailey's comments would have a big effect on the horse's odds in the Ky Derby? His comments won't have any effect, literally zero effect. I don't there is any commentator whose opinion would change a horse's odds that much in the Ky Derby.

freddymo 04-09-2018 07:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 1107859)
Yeah I thought they were delusional. Bailey, I think, said he was all out, but if he didn't change leads and the track wasn't the fastest thing ever he's gonna seem like he's working more. They seemed disappointed and I just shook my head. He's had 3 races and gone 101, 104, 107. What'd ya need, fellas? A 110?

Turns out Bolt D'Oro grabbed his front, not that I think that sunk him. I think he'd be the kind of horse to power through something like that but I know the reaction to that kind of thing varies.
Pic: https://twitter.com/MargaretDammit/s...62141252894721
The fig is the lowest number they could have assigned IF they wished 110/1 was undoubtedly a defendable number. As Dougie Sal suggests, to get to 107 you have to attach a regressive fig to the entire Oaks field something that is dubious but certainly possible, or the surface changed.

The fig is on the conservative side which does not bode well for all the 95 to 101 types that will be in the field.

Alabama Stakes 04-10-2018 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ontheoutside (Post 1107821)
I know im 88 and my eyes fail me a lot, but can someone explain what jerry bailey and randy moss were talking about? to me they were downgrading justify because he didn't win by 6/ are you kidding me?

I think I heard one of them say because the fraction was 112 and change for 3 quarters they were expecting a explosion and a win by open lengths

I saw a horse take advantage of no one chasing him to 3 quarters
I saw a jockey neverhit the horse until inside the 16th pole and I saw the horse then open up to extend his lead and they were taps not whips

are you not supposed to save your horse as most you can while winning if circumstance arises? they both said these 2 horses didn't scare anyone away from kentuck derby im glad they said that becausae I cant wait to unload on justify and mayme with therecomments he goes from 5-2 to now 4 to 1 thank you
You might be 88 but you are right on here. JDBailey and Randy Moss have their pointed heads up Therese . They know not of what they speak. He toyed with them and the ride was correct.

P.S. Who won that head bob Bailey ? you saw it ...no guts to say it though.

taxicab 04-10-2018 01:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Merlinsky (Post 1107859)
Margaret Ransom has cool looking dogs......:)

richard burch 04-11-2018 09:59 PM
Very nice horse but more concerned that he is just not as seasoned as some others. Only 3 races, never raced anywhere but S.A.


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:15 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.