Derby Trail Forums - 2/18: Santa Anita ($133k C/O)

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Meal Ticket feels most likely 2nd off the long layoff, but hard to embrace 18/0-1-0 Chew right now..

Most Likely: #4 California Breeze 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Meal Ticket 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Beauty Devine 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Chalky 5-2 6th

2nd: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Another MSW, another Baffert Cadillac. $500k Justify, noted by Hammer on Friday ATR, looks like the goods in morning. Must negotiate demanding 7f trip..

Most Likely: #3 Justify 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #4 Camby 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Show Time Rocket 3-1 5th

3rd: CLM, 4yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Beantown Boys 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Big League 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Trickonomics 6-1 2nd

4th: 7th Baffle, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$133k P6 C/O starts here..

Pubilius Syrus the horse to beat, but can't dawdle with modest pace signed on..

Most Likely: #2 Pubilius Syrus 9-5 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #5 Colosi 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Hemp Hemp Hurray 8-5 4th

5th: MCLM/$20k, 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Suspect bunch. Awesome Anywhere a winner with repeat of last, but Williston Dude appeals is 1st/claim for Glatt and Lucky Staxx looks like a knockout horse adding blinkers for Aguirre..

Most Likely: #2 Awesome Anywhere 8-5 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #7 Williston Dude 7-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Lucky Staxx 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Awesome E K 9-2 6th

P5 Grid:

1: 3-4-5 (A), 1-6-8 (B), - (C)
2: 3 (A), - (B), 2-4-5 (C)
3: 3-6 (A), 2 (B), 1-4-5 (C)
4: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-7 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x3x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x1x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
C's ~ $108

$0.50 Pick-5 (6/3/6/2/2) Paid $121.05

P4 Grid:

2: 3 (A), - (B), 2-4-5 (C)
3: 2-3-6 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
4: 1-2-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-7 (A), 1-5-6 (B), (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x5x3x5 = 75 x .50 = $36.50
All A's: 1x3x3x2 = $18 ($9 for .50)
C's ~ $30

$1 Pick-4 (3/6/2/2) All A's Paid $28.90 ($14.45 for .50)

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Nice group. The Tulip returns after adventurous trip last time. Win-friendly Girl Downstairs is only participant in for the tag. Cynthiana and Siberian Iris will close..

Most Likely: #3 The Tulip 3-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #7 Girl Downstairs 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Cynthiana 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Siberian Iris 5-2 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Ransomed 5-2 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #8 Velvet Jones 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Majestic Diva 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Candy Boss 4-1 6th

8th: 66th Las Flores (G3), F&M-4+, 6f (DD, Hi-5)

As discussed with John Sadler on ATR, Selcourt in midst of establishing herself as F&M Sprint Division player. She get recency over Skye Diamonds but will have to deal with others on the pace..

Most Likely: #6 Selcourt 6-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best:#5 Skye Diamonds 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Coniah 4-1 2nd

9th: MCLM/$75k, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Curlin's Journey 5-2 5th-DQ'd from 2nd
Next Best: #3 Mischievous Song 4-1 DNF-Pulled Up
Exotics Use: #1 Bunny Yogurt 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #6 Biscate 12-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #10 It's Alexus 6-1 6th

P6 Grid:

4: 2 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
5: 2 (A), 7 (B), 1-5-6 (C)
6: 3-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
7: 3-8 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
8: 6 (A), 5 (B), - (C)
9: 3-7 (A), - (B), 1-6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A's: 1x1x2x2x1x2 = 8 x $2 = $16
C's Play ~ $128

$2 Pick-6 (2/2/3/3/6/1) Paid $4,688.80 (6OF6)
$2 Pick-6 (2/2/3/3/6/1) Paid $40.80 (5OF6)

P4 Grid:

6: 3-7 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
7: 3-8 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), 6-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)
C's ~ $8 (.50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (3/3/6/1) Paid $297.70 ($148.85 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve