Derby Trail Forums - 2/3: Aqueduct (8th-9th); Gulfstream (8th-12th); Santa Anita (5th-9th)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 138th Withers (G3), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Distance the question to float here and Servis choosing to get it answered early on the Trail with Firenze Fire. Meanwhile, we know Avery Island & Marconi want the trip. Solid, experienced Bal Harbour ships up from FL and provides some value. Six line up and without a great deal of pace, this is a chess match among the jocks..

SCR NOTE ~ California Night SCR'ing from Withers leaving no authentic speed.. Avery Island and an aggressive Carmouche on Bal Harbour likely spar sparingly.

Best Value: #3 Bal Harbour 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Marconi 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Avery Island 8-5 WON ($4.30)
Super Add: #1 Firenze Fire 9-5 2nd

9th: NY-MCLM/$25k, 4+, 6f (X-C P4 Leg A)

P4 linking Dania Beach, Bob Lewis & Holy Bull starts here..

Murky bunch necessitating the need for more than half of them to start P4 successfully. 4-6-8-9 are the core with 0-13 Big Auk & 0-22 Catapult Jack far from impossible..

Most Likely: #6 Musicality 9-2 WON ($8.10)
Best Value: #9 Tammany Ghost 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Daring Destiny 3-1 3rd-Down via DQ
Super Add: #8 Barefoot Angel 5-1 2nd-Up via DQ

Cross Country P4 Grid:

AQU 9: 4-6-9 (A), 8-10 (B), 2 (C)
GP 11: 6-7 (A), - (B), 1-8-9 (C)
SA 5: 5-7-8 (A), 1-2 (B), 4-6 (C)
GP 12: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x5x4 = 200 x .5- = $100
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Has look/feel of productive group with some stakes dams involved in the pedigrees. Mark Hennig (#3 Wisely) has astoundingly won with his last 5 first time starters. Kenneally (#2 Chaps) looks dangerous towing pair of sharp gate works. Loooch's #10 Machismo has experience and a fast effort 3 weeks ago..

Best Value: #2 Chaps 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Dream Friend 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Wisely 4-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Brasstown 8-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Machismo 3-1 WON ($18.00)

9th: OC/N1X, 4+, 1m-T/96' (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Krampus 4-1 WON ($6.80)
Next Best: #1 Tipsy Kitten 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Convivial 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Attribute 7-2 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #8 My Point Exactly 20-1 7th

10th: Forward Gal (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #1 Sultry 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Miss Mo Mentum 9-5 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Violent Times 9-2 8th
Super Add: #8 My Miss Lilly 8-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #3 Heavenhasmynikki 6-1 4th

11th: Dania Beach (G3), 3yo, 1m-T/96' (DD, Hi-5, X-C P4 Leg B)

Gidu is a wire threat exiting turf sprint MDN win, but doesn't move like a horse that has to be winging out front..

Most Likely: #7 Gidu 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Untamed Domain 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #8 Renaisance Frolic 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Speed Franco 6-1 WON ($10.80)
Super/Hi-5: #9 Channel Cat 6-1 4th

12th: Holy Bull (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (Hi-5, X-C P4 Leg D)

Nice next step on road to the FL Derby with 3yo debuts from 3 Romans, 2 Pletchers and KMc's Enticed. Tiz Mischief had look of 2-turn horse early and did done little wrong Sept-Nov. Drilling with serious intent..

Most Likely: #7 Tiz Mischief 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Audible 6-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #2 Free Drop Billy 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Enticed 3-1 4th
Super/Hi-5: #8 Pony Up 8-1 5th

P5 Grid:

8: 1-2-3 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C)
9: 9 (A), - (B), 1-2-3 (C)
10: 1-6-7 (A), 3-8 (B), 2-4 (C)
11: 6-7 (A), - (B), 1-8-9 (C)
12: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x5x2x4 = 200 x .50 = $100
All A's: 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

P4 Grid:

9: 1-3-9 (A), - (B), 2-7-8 (C)
10: 1-6-7 (A), 3-8 (B), 2-4 (C)
11: 6-7 (A), - (B), 1-8-9 (C)
12: 4-7 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: 80th Bob Lewis (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, X-C P4 Leg C)

Not sure why there isn't more love for Peace into this, but as discussed with West Coast observers all week, Mandella putting blinkers on AFTER a win screams fine tuning for better. Hood will come in handy here too for staying close, as Lombo will stretch them out further than people might expect. Regulate laying in the weeds for Baffert. Pepe Tono won't sneak up on anyone today. Shivermetimbers has been stuck in 2nd gear. Ayacara sneaky dangerous getting back on main track while adding blinks..

Most Likely: #7 Peace 3-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Regulate 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Pepe Tono 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Shivermetimbers 7-2 7th

6th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Reverend Al 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Mercer Island 5-2 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Moonlight Blue 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Moonman 7-2 4th

7th: 66th San Marcos (G2), 4+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Isotherm 3-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Itsinthepost 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #7 Hayabusa Rose 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Flamboyant 4-1 6th

8th: 81st San Pasqual (G2), 4+, 9f (DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Pavel 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Accelerate 4-1 WON ($9.40)
Best Value: #5 The Lieutenant 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Irish Freedom 6-1 6th

9th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Beau Square 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Gotham Desire 6-1 10th
Best Value: #2 Rooms 30-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Gone to Town 5-1 5th
Super/Hi-5: #11 Bowie 4-1 WON ($8.00)

P5 Grid:

5: 2-7-8 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
6: 2-3 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)
7: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2-6-7 (C)
8: 1-3 (A), - (B), 5-6-7 (C)
9: 5-8 (A), 1-2 (B), 9-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x2x2x2x4 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

6: 2-3 (A), 7-8 (B), - (C)
7: 4-5 (A), - (B), 2-6-7 (C)
8: 1-3 (A), - (B), 5-6-7 (C)
9: 1-2-5-8-11 (A), 3-7-9-10 (B), 4-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x9 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x5 = 40 x .50 = $20

$0.50 Pick-4 (3/1,5/3/11) Paid $106.40

Good luck!
Steve