my main plays
 

I have a million and one things to do before I head over to Kentucky so will quickly run over my main plays for people to either praise or more likely laugh at on Sunday.

Turf-
red rocks will be my main play i think with Hurricane Run in an exacta

Sprint -
had a small bit on kelly's landing before the draw. not great now. backed Borbondaro at 5-1.. great bet IMO

Juveniles -
C P West is my main guy here with Circular Quay

Filly and Mare Turf -
Ouija and Germance might box Satwa with them but I might have a nice bet on germance if I get good enough odds

Classic -
Backed Invasor at 10-1. way too big. Bernardini should win. Might have a nationalist bet on gorgeous george.

Mile -
Araafa - bet of the day.have big win bet on him at 5-1.will prob play an exacta box with him, gorella and Miesque's Approval or Sleeping Indian


Juvi Fillies and Distaff, dont know too much about, will have to have closer look.

If Araafa doesn't win, sleep with one eye open at Chez Byk next summer..

thanks for this Brock.
always respect your analysis on Euros.

Im on board with you in the Turf, but with HRun on top.
BCJ-Cquay
BCS-Bord
BCD-SSugar,Pine Island
BCT-HRun, RRocks

I see myself making win/place bets on these horses(although I will not know for sure until race day).

Repent

and Im sure there is another thread on this somewhere, but I will say it here.

the worst favorite or short priced horse of the day is Aragorn.
I will not even use him in the pick 6 and most likely will ignore him in the pick 4.

Hes simply not fast enough and I dont think hes going to be all that wild about CD's turf course.


Repent

Agree with you on Bordonaro, but he was over 6-1 all last week at TheGreek.com. If you like to bet before the parimutuals, you'd do well to check them out. (odds are down right now while they take post position into account, but will almost certainly be up again later today.)

In the F&M Turf, you've made me officially nervous about leaving out Germance!

IMO, Invasor at 10-1 is just about correct. Even if I take Geo. Wash and David Jr out of the race entirely, I'd give Invasor just a 9-1 chance to win.

--Dunbar

On the other hand, brockguy, you can lock up a nice % profit by taking the -680 that Pinnacle is offering on Invasor to NOT win. Your 10-1 is certainly nice from that standpoint.

--Dunbar

I think anyone leaving out Film Maker is flirting with danger. Girl is as money as a mexican hooker during springbreak.

Be careful betting Hurrican Run. A couple of things comes to mind here. On paper he seems to be head and shoulders above everyone else. There are two things to consider.

1) He raced on Oct 1 in the Arc and then on Oct 14th. He lost both. Now he gets on a plane and travels across the Atlantic for a race on Nov 4th. That is a ton for a horse to endure in a one month time span.

2) This is my fav little hidden tid-bit. Hurricane Run's sire is Montjeu. Montjeu came over to Churchill during his 4 year old season with an impressive resume. However, Montjeu was tailing off during his 4 year old season. Montjeu didnt hit the board as the $3.20 fav. This also seems to be the case with Hurrican Run. Just be careful with this one.

Balleto--I am with you on Film Maker. I think she might be a little too slow but she is ultra consistant.

My bet of the day is Echo Of Light.

I really like Echo of Light as well. He may be my favorite for that race.

I am hoping people overlook this horse.