Derby Trail Forums - 11/4 (DMR): Breeders' Cup Saturday

Fun start to the BC weekend Friday with Forever Unbridled capping the day under Johnny V. in a well-orchestrated Distaff triumph. While a 3-start campaign doesn't sit well with purists, no one can argue with the result produced by Dallas Stewart's deliberate Championship path. Nice though that she'll go forward into a 6yo season with the unusual Mr. Fipke eager to try some ambitious spots.

Wagering bumped along throughout the day with Rushing Fall ($8.00) & Best Performance (16-1) keying a great Juvy Filly Turf outcome that produced big returns. Chad Brown and Bob Edwards repeated in the event (New Money Honey in '16) and have a shot to upset Bolt d'Oro today with Good Magic.

Mendelssohn, the Beholder brother who took great advantage of the inside draw, was not on any ticket and tormented every multi-race play for me. Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown cleverly asserted that Lasix could be a big boost to the $3,000,000 Ballydoyle hopeful based on how he had abruptly stopped in the Champagne at Doncaster 2 back.

Battle of Midway ($30.40) ran a tremendous race to beat a hard-trying Sharp Azteca in the Dirt Mile and owner-trainer combo of Don Alberto & Jerry Hollendorfer have an obvious chance to score again with Unique Bella in the F&M Sprint.

Hope everyone got off to a good start and are prepared to attack today's opportunities!

DEL MAR ~ BREEDERS' CUP SATURDAY

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: 6th Goldikova (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Kitten's Roar a strong 'A' and potential single for P5 players considering difficulty degree in the 3rd-5th..

Most Likely: #7 Kitten's Roar 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #1 On Leave 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Hillhouse High 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Aljazzi 6-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Majestic Heat 12-1 6th

2nd: 5th Golden St. Juvenile-R, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Bookies Luck 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #1 Smokem 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Lucky Romero 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Night At the Opera 3-1 5th

3rd: 5th Juvenile Turf Sprint, 2yo, 5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #12 Majestic Dunhill 20-1 10th
Next Best: #10 March X Press 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Count Alexander 6-1 11th
Super Add: #5 Sound And Silence 8-1 2nd

4th: 34th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Taking a page from Rick Hammerle's 'don't let the post get you off the best horse' playbook, I'll stick with Separationofpowers. She's the best filly here and trust Jose Ortiz to find his way to an acceptable 3-wide around the first turn from the tricky slot. Wonder Gadot (8-1), like Flameaway finally getting to turf Friday, has potential to leap forward on her proper surface. Caledonia Road (15-1) will be discounted coming from under-known Ralph Nicks, but he's great with youngsters and she put in a strong run behind top choice in the Frizette..

Most Likely: #13 Separationofpowers 4-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Wonder Gadot 8-1 6th
Best Value: #12 Caldonia Road 15-1 WON ($36.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Heavenly Love 9-2 11th
Super Add: #8 Piedi Bianchi 15-1 5th

REVERSE TRI KEY: Was asked for example of the Reverse Tri Key concept. Idea is take the most logical exacta candidates and top them over a price play that might hang on or clunk up for third..

Example, 1-7-11-13 (Separationofpowers/Wonder Gadot/Moonshine Memories/Heavenly Love) with 1-7-11-13 with 12 (Caldonia Road): 4x3x1 = $12 or $6 for .50.

Optionally, you could use all three of #3 (12-1) Princess Warrior/#8 (15-1) Piedi Bianchi/#12 (15-1) Caledonia Road in the 3rd slot: 1-7-11-13 with 1-7-11-13 with 3-8-12: 4x3x3 = $36 or $18 for .50.

Other Reverse Tri Key candidates today:

TURF SPRINT: #3 Holding Gold (15-1); #9 Mongolian Saturday (20-1)
F&M SPRINT: #7 By the Moon (12-1); #10 Highway Star 15-1
F&M TURF: #1 War Flag 12-1
SPRINT: #1 Calculator 20-1
MILE: #4 Lancaster Bomber 20-1; #6 Zelzal 20-1; #11 Ballagh Rocks 12-1
JUVENILE: #10 Golden Dragon 30-1; #12 Hollywood Star 15-1
TURF: #10 Fanciful Angel; #7 Itsinthepost; #13 Sadler's Joy 12-1
CLASSIC: #2 War Decree 30-1; #9 Gunnevera 30-1

5th: 10th Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1), 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Off the pace is typically the winner's path going 5f here. Lady Aurelia, along with Lady Eli and Unique Bella, is a horse I'd just like to see win and she can stalk and go successfully. Richard's Boy has an upset look and will be an overlay; Marsha bested the top pick in the thrilling Nunthorpe; Pure Sensation dangerous up front..

Most Likely: #3 Lady Aurelia 5-2 10th
Best Value: #7 Richard's Boy 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Marsha 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Pure Sensation 10-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Hogy 12-1 11th

P5 Grid:

1: 1-7 (A), 6 (B), 9-11 (C)
2: 1-6 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
3: 10-12-13 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
4: 11-13 (A), - (B), 1-4-7-8-12 (C)
5: 3-7 (A), 6-12 (B), 1-2-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24

P4 Grid:

2: 1-6 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C)
3: 10-12-13 (A), 3-5 (B), 1-2 (C)
4: 11-12-13 (A), - (B), 1-4-7-8-12 (C)
5: 3-7 (A), - (B), 1-2-6-10-11-12 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x5x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

6th: 11th Breeders' Cup F&M Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

From a multi-race standpoint, you may require Unique Bella as a single and she feels likely to justify that approach. But as LP3 has stressed, no 3yo has won this race, Unique Bella could get caught wide and there are no shortage of tough cookies to deal with including reformed claimer Skye Diamonds. One approach could be a backup P3 with other major candidates that leans on Separationofpowers/Lady Aurelia ahead and Lady Eli and obvious sprinters behind (See below)..

Most Likely: #11 Unique Bella 9-5 7th
Next Best: #12 Skye Diamonds 5-1 4th
Best Value: #14 Ami's Mesa 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Carina Mia 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Highway Star 15-1 11th

J-Filly/T-Sprint/F&M Sprint P3 (4th-6th): 11-12-13 with 3 with 1-3-4-7-9-10-12-14 (3x1x8 = $24 or $12 for .50)

T-Sprint/F&M Sprint/F&M Turf P3 (5th-7th): 3 with All with 8-9 (1x14x2 = $28 or $14 for .50)

F&M Sprint/F&M Turf/Sprint P3 (6th-8th): 1-7-10-12-14 with 8-9 with 2-3-8-10 (5x2x4 = $40 or $20 for .50)

7th: 19th Breeders' Cup F&M Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Lady Eli the sentimental (and capable) pick; Grand Jete overdue for some luck; Cambodia great over this course this summer; Wuheida making a positive impression coming in..

Most Likely: #9 Lady Eli 5-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Grand Jete 6-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Cambodia 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Wuheida 20-1 WON ($24.40)
Super Add: #10 Queen's Trust 12-1 5th

8th: 34th Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Drefong could overwhelm this field and it will be no surprise, but that inside draw is very tricky. Imperial Hint is scary fast. American Pastime ideal as your price key in all slots. Roy H the pick coming up to another peak effort..

Most Likely: #8 Roy H 7-2 WON ($11.80)
Best Value: #3 American Pastime 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Drefong 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Imperial Hint 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Calculator 20-1 7th

P4 Grid:

5: 3-7 (A), 6-12 (B), 1-2-5-11 (C)
6: 11 (A), - (B), 1-7-10-12-14 (C)
7: 6-8-9 (A), 4-5-10 (B), 1-7 (C)
8: 2-3-8-10 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x1x3x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)

9th: 34th Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

He won't be a price like his brother Miesque's Approval at Churchill in '06, but Mrs. Weber's homebred World Approval is going to get a perfect trip behind the speed. Ribchester an International stalwart. Bomber, Ballagh and Zelzal viable value..

Most Likely: #5 World Approval 9-2 WON ($7.40)
Next Best: #10 Ribchester 7-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Lancaster Bomber 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Ballagh Rocks 12-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Zelzal 20-1 6th

$1 Exacta (5-4) Paid $48.50

10th: 34th Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Another of the day's major players and does look like your typical reliable Juvenile favorite. I'll use Good Magic as a B..

Most Likely: #11 Bolt d'Oro 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Good Magic 8-1 WON ($25.00)
Next Best: #2 Solomini 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Free Drop Billy 5-1 9th
Super Add: #3 Firenze Fire 6-1 7th

$1 Exacta (6-2) Paid $67.80
$1 Trifecta (6-2-11) Paid $229.40

10th: 34th Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (DD)

Arc winners might not annex the BC Turf, but horses out of the Arc have won their share. Ulysses SCRATCHED has pointed for this as his seasonal target since last year's visit as a 3yo and has campaigned at the highest level en route. Made a stunning impression Thursday bulldozing around the lawn and looks to be as imposing as any of the day's favorites..

Most Likely: #12 Beach Patrol 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Talismanic 15-1 WON ($30.20)
Next Best: #3 Highland Reel 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #13 Sadler's Joy 12-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Itsinthepost 15-1 7th

$1 Exacta (1-12) Paid $78.00
$1 Trifecta (1-12-3) Paid $261.80
$1 Superfecta (1-12-3-13) Paid $2,592.00

12th: 34th Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (Hi-5)

Gun Runner will be tough to beat, but you know that Baffert has done everything possible to give Arrogate his chance to repeat. West Coast must be covered. Should be a terrific end to the weekend..

Most Likely: #1 Arrogate 2-1 5th-DH
Next Best: #5 Gun Runner 9-5 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #8 West Coast 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Gunnevara 30-1 5th-DH
Super Add: #10 Pavel 20-1 10th

P6 Grid:

7: 8-9 (A), - (B), 5-6-10 (C)
8: 3-8 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C)
9: 5 (A), 10 (B), 4-11 (C)
10: 11 (A), - (B), 2-6 (C)
11: 1-12 (A), 3 (B), 7-13-14 (C)
12: 1-5-8 (A), - (B), 9-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x2x1x3x3 = 144 x $2 = $288
All A's: 2x2x1x1x2x3 = 24 x $2 = $48

$2 Pick-6 (5/8/5/6/1/5) Paid $1,381.80 (5OF6) x 2 = $2,763.20

P4 Grid:

9: 4-5-10-11 (A), 1-2 (B), 6-8 (C)
10: 11 (A), 2-6 (B), 1-3-5-10 (C)
11: 1-12 (A), 3 (B), 7-13-14 (C)
12: 1-5-8 (A), - (B), 9-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x3x3x3 = 162 x .50 = $81
All A's: 4x1x2x3 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (5/6/1/5) Paid $1,257.15

DIS-CLS DBL:

DIS: 5-6 (A), 2-7 (B), 4-8 (C)
CLS: 1-5-8 (A), - (B), 9-10-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3 = 12 x $2 = $24
All A's: 2x3 = 6 x $4 = $24

$1 Double (6/5) Paid $18.70 x 4 = $74.80 (All A's); x 2 = $37.60 (Simple)

Good luck!
Steve