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ontheoutside

08-09-2017 05:23 AM

heres one i heard

what do you guys think? listening to a show my grandson gets on the internet about horse racing
and one of the analists said its a proven fact 90 % of all north amaerican races are won by horses that are 10 to 1 or less

does anyone think that's true?

or does anyone know if its a reality?

thanks

opusone

08-09-2017 09:13 AM

This is a small sample of four tracks on Saturday to see how many winners paid more than $22.00. He may be correct

Arlington 8 races 0
Delmar 10 races 1
Saratoga 11 races 3
Woodbine 10 races 1

I think the higher level of competition leads to the chances of higher prices

jms62

08-09-2017 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ontheoutside (Post 1097022)

Code:

Year      Races       Wins   < 10/1                    

2017     23,436    21,017   89.67%

10 pnt move up

08-09-2017 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1097030)

Code:

Year      Races       Wins   < 10/1                    

2017     23,436    21,017   89.67%

U wouldnt happen to have that in your database for say the last decade?

jms62

08-09-2017 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097038)

U wouldnt happen to have that in your database for say the last decade?

From 1/3/2015

Code:

Year                         Races       Wins   < 10/1                    

1/3/2015-Present           100,769       89,812   89.13%

10 pnt move up

08-09-2017 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1097039)

From 1/3/2015

Code:

Year                         Races       Wins   < 10/1                    

1/3/2015-Present           100,769       89,812   89.13%

I know this is off the wall questions but I wonder what the stats are on horses over 10/1 hitting the pick 4 sequence, I can do the simple math but wonder what the rates are actual.

jms62

08-09-2017 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up (Post 1097052)

I know this is off the wall questions but I wonder what the stats are on horses over 10/1 hitting the pick 4 sequence, I can do the simple math but wonder what the rates are actual.

I'd love to but unfortunately I would have no way to identify which races are in the P4 at each track. Also I couldn't just assume 2-5 and last 4 as it doesn't work out that way all the time. Take today at Saratoga it is 3-6...

OTM Al

08-10-2017 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ontheoutside (Post 1097022)

If the markets are efficient, which they will tend to be in the long run, yeah, I think it is true. If it wasn't, players would be making exploitable mistakes.

declansharbor

08-11-2017 11:42 AM

Great info, Jim!

I'm sure there's no way to differentiate this, but I was wondering if it's possible to categorize this between races that had 6 or less runners and between 7-12 runners. Total shot in the dark but it doesnt hurt to ask.

jms62

08-11-2017 02:47 PM

Year To Date

Code:

Field         # < 10-1        Pct        

2        11        11        100.0%        

3        46        46        100.0%        

4        376        367        97.6%        

5        2063        1981        96.0%        

6        4782        4475        93.6%        94.5% (6 and Below)

7        5447        4968        91.2%        87.5% (7 and Up)

8        4228        3734        88.3%        

9        2903        2518        86.7%        

10        2196        1833        83.5%        

11        899        725        80.6%        

12        641        513        80.0%        

13        37        29        78.4%        

14        30        20        66.7%        

20        1        1        100.0%        

         23,660

jms62

08-11-2017 03:02 PM

Since 1-1-2015

Code:

Field        #  Win< 10                        

1        1        1        100.0%                

2        17        17        100.0%                

3        154        154        100.0%                

4        1320        1301        98.6%                

5        7828        7534        96.2%                

6        19107        17965        94.0%        94.9%         6 or Less

7        21931        19991        91.2%        87.0%        7 or More

8        18443        16369        88.8%                

9        13072        11154        85.3%                

10        10434        8663        83.0%                

11        4440        3619        81.5%                

12        3592        2830        78.8%                

13        311        238        76.5%                

14        250        177        70.8%                

20        3        3        100.0%                

        100,903

declansharbor

08-11-2017 09:56 PM

Dude, awesome stuff! Thanks for the stats!

Keep them P5's coming. You know more than anyone, all it takes is 1 to turn it ALL around! Nice prices to be had tomorrow at Saratoga & Arlington, imo!

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