Mudders
 

Good Afternoon

Who do you all project to move up if the track comes up wet? I am leaning towards Sonneteer at the moment.....thoughts?

Irish War Cry off the top of my head. Curlin's tend to run well in the slop (Exaggerator last year is a prime example).

Gormley?

Yeah he looks like the most likely winner to me as well. I remember betting Brokers Tip in 1933 I LOVED HIM

Classic Empire won first time out on a sloppy sealed track


which happened to be Churchill Downs.

Although I guess that doesn't put him in a "move up" position.

I guess I won't look at "mudders" as much as closers. Wet track tends to speed up the pace in the Derby quite a bit.

Wasn't midnight lute a good mudder? I remember him rolling on the breeders cup sprint in the slop

You would think that with all the eyes on all these hosses that someone would have noticed any mudfeet in the field

Interestingly,a pretty good chunk of these horses have a good mud effort on view.
Also,the mud breeding is pretty solid on the ones that haven't gone in the goo yet.
Irap is the one horse I would drop if the race came up muddy.
A horse that I would hesitate to play in the mud is Patch.
It's not his breeding that concerns me.
Patch only has one eye,if a clump of mud nails him in the eye and sticks.........he suddenly can't see.

He was incredible that day. Talked Midnight Lute and that win with John Sikura Tuesday as it happens. As Welsch, Gary Young and I discussed Monday, Sonneteer worked over a track with a lot of moisture in it and looked terrific.

There's no track anywhere that takes moisture like Churchill. The weather here is as volatile and fast moving as anywhere you'll ever see, so stop worrying about mud until there's a clearer picture of what you'll be dealing with. Unless you get a downpour in proximity to post, that track invariably comes up shockingly good.

This morning's outlook has improved considerably. Heaviest rain now expected Thursday into Friday with patchy rain, possible thunderstorms at times Oaks Day. What ever rain comes Derby Day is now expected between 10a-2p. If that forecast is close, you'll have a fast track by 6:30p.

When Mine That Bird won, it barely rained that morning and none after noon but it was still rated sloppy. I remember showing up that morning thinking it would change, but it did not. There was a lot of rain that week and Rachel won in the slop on Friday.

The field is 10-5-4-0 on off tracks. Pretty incredible.

Of the ones who ran on it, Gormley is the one who really moved up several lengths- 3 pts on Thorograph and a couple of lengths on BRIS.

I love to play the Birdstone runners in the mud,they really move up on the wet stuff.
Of course I wasn't smart enough to even consider MTB.

Speightstown is my go to mud blood. Have a handful on the weekend.

You mean Birdsong runners, but I'm with you there as I had Birdstone that Derby Day tossing MTB.

Huh?

Sorry got my years and horses mixed up.
I meant I had Summer Bird while tossing MTB
But I always consider Birdsong progeny in the mud, which included Birdstone in 2004.

I think you mean Storm Bird, the BM sire of Birdstone.