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-   -   '17 Xpressbet Derby/Preakness/Belmont Wagering Guide (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=62225)

Kasept 05-01-2017 08:57 PM
'17 Xpressbet Derby/Preakness/Belmont Wagering Guide
 
LINK https://member.xb-online.com/files/i...DWG_Member.pdf

Kasept 05-01-2017 08:58 PM

Zaf 05-01-2017 10:22 PM
Thanks Steve :)

Z

Kasept 05-02-2017 04:37 AM
Groups of 5 from Monday pace discussion with James Scully..


ON

Always Dreaming
Fast and Accurate
State of Honor
Irish War Cry
Irap


NEAR

Classic Empire
Battle of Midway
Thunder Snow
Gormley
Untrapped


STALK

Girvin
Tapwrit
Practical Joke
Patch
J Boys Echo


OFF

McCraken
Hence
Sonneteer
Lookin At Lee
Gunnevara

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 1090180)
Groups of 5 from Monday pace discussion with James Scully..

Placement at first call (1/4)

ON

State of Honor (1st)
Always Dreaming (2nd)
Irish War Cry (4th)
Fast and Accurate (5th)
Irap (6th)


NEAR

Battle of Midway (3rd)
Thunder Snow (uh.. paddock)
Gormley (7th)
Untrapped (10th)
Classic Empire (13th)


STALK

Practical Joke (8th)
Patch (9th)
Girvin (11th)
Tapwrit (15th)
J Boys Echo (16th)


OFF

McCraken (12th)
Gunnevara (14th)
Lookin At Lee (17th)
Hence (18th)
Sonneteer (19th)

pmayjr 05-02-2017 06:06 AM
IMO I'd switch Battle of Midway and State of Honor. But otherwise I think that list is very accurate.

tywizard 05-02-2017 07:09 AM
I don't see McCraken being in that last group.

He was never more than 3L from the leader in the Bluegrass and was positioned ahead of Tapwrit and PJ for the first half.

He was bit further back in the Sam Davis but not by much. As the distances have increased he seems to lay a little closer.

I'd be shocked if Patch and J Boys Echo were in front of him at any point in the race.

cal828 05-02-2017 09:29 AM
Interesting show yesterday Steve and the segment with Mr. Scully was the most interesting of all, to me anyway. :tro:

cal828 05-02-2017 12:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleBenelli (Post 1090193)
I have seen on multiple threads many people voice the opinion that this is a wide open derby. Even to the extent of the most wide open that many can recall. Which would be evident in the current predicted odds having the favorite around 5 or 6 to 1. However, most all of the expert handicappers appear to agree across the board on a small handful of horses. The few exceptions is each persons stab at 1 potential long shot, and there is very little consensus and that particular stab.

So if it really is the wide open race that so many claim, why are most picking the same 4 horses?
I think it's because there is no clear cut jump off the page favorite like in the last 3 years with Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist. There are concerns with just about all of them as Steve said in his Xpressbet article. Some of the favorites have good credentials, so to speak, but also have had negatives like physical or even mental issues and several are very lightly raced and who knows what kind of pace there will be. Undoubtedly, some will change jockeys and running styles. All very confusing stuff to figure out.

Kasept 05-03-2017 03:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tywizard (Post 1090184)
I don't see McCraken being in that last group.

He was never more than 3L from the leader in the Bluegrass and was positioned ahead of Tapwrit and PJ for the first half.

He was bit further back in the Sam Davis but not by much. As the distances have increased he seems to lay a little closer.

I'd be shocked if Patch and J Boys Echo were in front of him at any point in the race.
Wilkes does see him around there. He was keen off the break in the Blue Grass (and they knew they needed to be 1-2-3) and Ian expects him to be more relaxed early Saturday. Draw obviously will affect Hernandez decisions.

Kasept 05-03-2017 03:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmayjr (Post 1090183)
IMO I'd switch Battle of Midway and State of Honor. But otherwise I think that list is very accurate.
Hollendorfer wants Battle of Midway to be in a stalking role.

Despite Jose 'Take 'em Back' Lezcano, it will be difficult for him to not be forward with a steamrolling State of Honor. He is doing great and yesterday's gallop was a particular demonstration. He may be the horse that is most likely of the outsiders to impact the race given his unusually dogged performances.

Kasept 05-03-2017 03:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cal828 (Post 1090188)
Interesting show yesterday Steve and the segment with Mr. Scully was the most interesting of all, to me anyway. :tro:
Scully is a very good critical thinker about races. Has a great opinion.

Kasept 05-03-2017 03:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleBenelli (Post 1090193)
I have seen on multiple threads many people voice the opinion that this is a wide open derby. Even to the extent of the most wide open that many can recall. Which would be evident in the current predicted odds having the favorite around 5 or 6 to 1. However, most all of the expert handicappers appear to agree across the board on a small handful of horses. The few exceptions is each persons stab at 1 potential long shot, and there is very little consensus and that particular stab.

So if it really is the wide open race that so many claim, why are most picking the same 4 horses?
Like last year, as I'm alluding to above, it isn't necessarily that 'wide open'. Derby is always going to have a highly contentious look, but as the 2016 result demonstrated, that doesn't mean it's prudent to abandon the horses that are the most likely. Identify the horse(s) you think have the best chance and feather in the players that can impact (or even upset).

XIIPointStables 05-03-2017 08:40 PM
Steve -

Do you think Thunder Snow gets added to that first group drawing the 2?

Kasept 05-03-2017 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by XIIPointStables (Post 1090282)
Steve -

Do you think Thunder Snow gets added to that first group drawing the 2?
Don't think they want him with the leaders, but Soumillion has no choice but to go forward to gain some position. They certainly can't want him sitting deep in the second flight. This wasn't a good draw for him unless they resign themselves to dropping back and coming with a run.

Kasept 05-12-2017 12:04 PM

Kasept 05-12-2017 12:07 PM
PREAKNESS GUIDE LINK: https://member.xb-online.com/files/i...SWG_Member.pdf

Kasept 06-02-2017 11:01 AM

Kasept 06-02-2017 11:07 AM
BELMONT GUIDE LINK: https://member.xb-online.com/files/i...SWG_Member.pdf


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