Derby Trail Forums - 10/7: Keeneland (Opening Day; 6th-10th)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Valadorna ran well at a mile first out versus a fancy field including Alcibiades player Queen Bernardina (Won) and Untappable sister Untapped (3rd). Mo's M V P appears to be moving forward with experience..

Most Likely: #9 Valadorna 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Mo's M V P 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Ethylene 8-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Miss O'Hara 30-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Nice group but Tiz Jeweled ran into some tough customers while searching for diploma and has explosive 'race two back' development pattern I love to spot. Clement at 8-1 suits. Walking the Kitten the filly to beat and draw adds to appeal of alternate key horse as top tab. Inchargeofme offers sweet Shuggy upside. Amnicalola, Play the Break & Quiet Business are exotics candidates..

Most Likely: #7 TIZ JEWELED 8-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Walking the Kitten 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #6 Inchargeofme 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Amnicalola 5-2 6th

.10 SUPER: 7/10 with 1/6/7/10 with 1/5/6/7/8/10 with 1/5/6/7/8/10 (2x3x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

8th: Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Bravo and A.P. Indian want to get out of the gate and establish position and it will be interesting to see what Leparoux and rock solid W.B. Smudge do early in terms of pressing the favorite. Outside meanwhile, lead-needing Cinco Charlie most likely to be the pace-setter with newly blinkered Limousine Liberal, fast already, a prompter inside on his home strip. Alsvid and Ami's Flatter can potentially be the recipients of a pace set-up..

Most Likely: #1 A.P. Indian 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #2 W.B. Smudge 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Ami's Flatter 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Limousine Liberal 5-1 2nd

9th: Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Superb lineup for this post-poly resurrected G1. Mrs. Wyeth's Motion-helmed Dancing Rags improved going T2D while stretching to a mile and now adds Lasix for 3rd career start. Bonus tote in bulky field. Out of an Empire Maker mare, 10-1 Fun saves all the ground for Wilkes while returning to Hernandez for route debut. Aforementioned Queen Bernardina adds Bravo and looks tactical behind the speed for Donnie K. Favored Daddys Lil Darling will have to work out a trip from #14, but pace will be there for her to chase. Dream Dancing and Diadura appear major threats getting on dry/fast dirt for first time..

Best Value: #4 Dancing Rags 12-1 WON ($26.60)
Next Best: #1 Fun 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Queen Bernardina 10-1 8th
Super Add: #14 Daddys Lil Darling 7-2 2nd

$1 Exacta (4-14) PAID $106.50
$1 Trifecta (4-14-1) PAID $897.20

10th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Hi-5)

If it isn't the Ramsey entry, it could be almost any of these.. As Scully mentioned yesterday, this is a spot where meet title-obsessed outfit typically scores, but this feels like a treacherous event..

Most Likely: #1e Ramsey entry 4-1 WON ($4.00)/4th
Best Value: #2 Remembermis 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 McHenry 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Rate for Me 6-1 9th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Chasin Charlie 8-1 7th

P5 Grid:

6: 9 (A), 7 (B), 4-8-10 (C)
7: 7-10 (A), 6 (B), 1-5-8 (C)
8: 1-2 (A), 3-4-5 (B), 6-7 (C)
9: 1-4 (A), 3-8-14 (B), 6-11 (C)
10: 1 (A), - (B), 2-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x5x5x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x2x2x2x1 = $8 ($4 for .50)
Full (A/B/C): $85 (16 tickets; See below)

$0.50 Pick-5 (9,13,14,15,16/10/1/4/1) Paid $277.60 ($555.20 for All A's $1)

$0.50 Pick-5 (9,13,14,15,16/10/1/4/1) Paid $3.60 (4OF5) x 11 = $39.60 (A+B)
$0.50 Pick-5 (9,13,14,15,16/10/1/4/1) Paid $3.60 (4OF5) x 3 = $10.80 (All A's)
$0.50 Pick-5 (9,13,14,15,16/10/1/4/1) Paid $3.60 (4OF5) x 10 = $36.00 (A/B/C)

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 6 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 $6.00
5 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 1 $6.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 6 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $2.00
7 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 $6.00
8 $0.50 pick P5: 7 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 1 $6.00
9 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 6 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 $3.00
10 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 6 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 1 $3.00
11 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 3,8,14 with 1 $9.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P5: 4,8,10 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $12.00
13 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 1,5,8 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $6.00
14 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 6,7 with 1,4 with 1 $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 6,11 with 1 $4.00
16 $0.50 pick P5: 9 with 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 2,10 $8.00

Total: $85.00

P4 Grid:

7: 7-10 (A), 6 (B), 1-5-8 (C)
8: 1-2 (A), 3-4-5 (B), 6-7 (C)
9: 1-4 (A), 3-8-14 (B), 6-11 (C)
10: 1 (A), 2 (B), 5-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x5x1 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 2x2x2x1 = $8 ($4 for .50)
Full (A/B/C): $77 (15 tickets; See below)

$0.50 Pick-4 (10/1/4/1) Paid $166.55 ($333.10 for All A's $1)

All A Entries

1 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $2.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 $6.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 1 $6.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 2 $4.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 1 $3.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 1 $3.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 2 $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 3,8,14 with 1 $9.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 3,4,5 with 1,4 with 2 $6.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 3,8,14 with 2 $6.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 1,5,8 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 1 $6.00
13 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 6,7 with 1,4 with 1 $4.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 6,11 with 1 $4.00
15 $0.50 pick P4: 7,10 with 1,2 with 1,4 with 5,9,10 $12.00

Total: $77.00

Good luck!
Steve