Derby Trail Forums - 6/3: Belmont Park ($22k C/O)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$22k C/O starts here..

Cave Johnson has certainly been facing better, but doesn't have a lot of margin for error. 'Likely' but not automatic. Zartax seems to be connecting the dots and runs back without pause for first time in career for dangerous outfit..

Most Likely: #8 Cave Johnson 1-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #4 Zartax 12-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Zamjara 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Gunlock 12-1 2nd

5th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Mile and a quarter turf test for a classy looking set of fillies, 4 of which (1-3-7-8) exit the same event run 5/5. Jerkens reaches for Castellano for Truth who found Time and Motion in her debut..

Most Likely: #9 Truth 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Val D' Isere 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Texting 7-2 WON ($9.70)
Exotics Use: #4 Warranty 5-1 3rd

6th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Inspector Lynley logical of course, but there are few things going on here that are worth noting. Gio's Calling was eye-poppingly good breaking maiden in 3yo bow for Lynch and while required to take some step forward here, need not improve all that much to impact at a nice tote. Abbot kept nice company in Florida including a Cutler Bay effort that's on a par with Lynley's Transylvania. Siding Spring returns to his intended surface..

Best Value: #1 Gio's Calling 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Inspector Lynley 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Abbot 5-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Siding Spring 8-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Some rain expected early in the day, but no guarantee Bileaps and Bounds gets the wet strip she favors. Always a wire threat, but presence of Zippity Zoom mitigates that. Top pair could waltz unaccompanied, as you wouldn't expect Kentucky Road to be as forward as last time with Irad getting aboard. Joe Parker brings Mr. Johnson's $250k-earning Kate Is a Ten back for her 6yo debut, and while she rarely misses a paycheck, this feels like a seasonal tightener. Enigmatic Skipalute was 3rd/layoff 3 weeks ago when she dumped Arroyo. Should get the kind of outside stalking trip she likes. Carmouche abandons Arch Or Nothing for Bileaps, but isn't outclassed exiting similar event where she chased next out Bouwerie winner Flatterywillgetyou. Hate this kind of race where one wrinkle can totally change complexion..

Most Likely: #3 Zippity Zoom 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #5 Bileaps and Bounds 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Skipalute 5-1 3rd

8th: OC/C, 3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

As discussed on ATR, stakes quality event marking return of '14 Arlington Million winner Hardest Core for Ned Graham who has been watching for spots to bring him back. Long On Value the central player, but will need to be used early to navigate the dogleg. Vision Perfect (20-1) is for me though in his 4yo debut at big number for streaking David Donk. Need only make natural 3 to 4 progression to succeed here..

Best Value: #2 Vision Perfect 20-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Long On Value 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Jay Gatsby 6-1 WON ($7.50)
Super Add: #5 Blacktype 6-1 3rd

9th: CLM. 3+, 8.5f

Most Likely: #2 Lure of the South 9-5 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #8 Saint Finian 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Luckbox Sam 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Chairman Now 8-1 7th

P6 Grid:

4: 8 (A), - (B), 4-5-7 (C)
5: 8-9 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
6: 1-4 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
7: 3 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
8: 2-6-11 (A), - (B), 1-5-10 (C)
9: 2 (A), 8 (B), 1-5-7-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x1x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
All A's: 1x2x2x1x3x1 = 12 x $2 = $24

$2 Pick-6 (8,10/3/5/3/6,7,8,9,13,14/2,4,9) Paid $32.40 (5OF6) x 4 = 129.60

P4 Grid:

6: 1-4 (A), 2-8 (B), - (C)
7: 3 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
8: 2-5-6-11 (A), - (B), 1-10 (C)
9: 2-8 (A), 1-5-7-9 (B), 3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x6 = 96 x $.50 = $48
All A's: 2x1x4x2 = $16 ($8 for $.50)

Good luck!
Steve