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-   -   Trump beats Hillary in new poll (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=59211)

joeydb 01-11-2016 01:07 PM

Trump beats Hillary in new poll
 
http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...tion-match-up/

Excerpt: " A December poll from Fox showed Hillary ahead of Trump by 11 points. This latest poll, however, has Trump beating Clinton by 3 points, 47-44 percent."

mclem0822 01-11-2016 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 1053336)
http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...tion-match-up/

Excerpt: " A December poll from Fox showed Hillary ahead of Trump by 11 points. This latest poll, however, has Trump beating Clinton by 3 points, 47-44 percent."

Breitbart.com and Fox, well those are both so known to provide " truth and fairness" :rolleyes:

joeydb 01-11-2016 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem0822 (Post 1053338)
Breitbart.com and Fox, well those are both so known to provide " truth and fairness" :rolleyes:

... as opposed to Slate, MotherJones, and Media Matters? :rolleyes:

joeydb 01-11-2016 02:28 PM

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articl...illary-clinton

How about U.S. News? Not exactly a conservative publication...

Excerpt:

"Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans."

Rudeboyelvis 01-11-2016 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 1053341)
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articl...illary-clinton

How about U.S. News? Not exactly a conservative publication...

Excerpt:

"Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans."

Virtually every poll since the end of November has the 2 of them in a virtual dead heat (neither exceed the respective MoE when leading):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

Considering it would take a minor miracle for Trump to carry New York (compared to a complete impossibility for the rest of the field), the GOP, as usual, will be spotting the Dems 53 EC votes (between NY and CA).

The GOP needs to carry FL, PA and OH to have a prayer, and Trump is leading (over his GOP counterparts) in all three states.

A more interesting view would be the same poll, but broken down by battleground states, and then compared to Clinton-Cruz and then Clinton-Rubio

joeydb 01-11-2016 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis (Post 1053346)
Virtually every poll since the end of November has the 2 of them in a virtual dead heat (neither exceed the respective MoE when leading):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

Considering it would take a minor miracle for Trump to carry New York (compared to a complete impossibility for the rest of the field), the GOP, as usual, will be spotting the Dems 53 EC votes (between NY and CA).

The GOP needs to carry FL, PA and OH to have a prayer, and Trump is leading (over his GOP counterparts) in all three states.

A more interesting view would be the same poll, but broken down by battleground states, and then compared to Clinton-Cruz and then Clinton-Rubio

Good analysis.

New York will be difficult due to historic left leaning, but I wasn't sure if Trump would get any edge for being a lifelong New Yorker versus Hillary's carpetbagger status for when she accepted the Moynihan senate seat as part of that plan to get her in office. You know - she couldn't be bothered by running for the House - would have been "beneath" her.

Danzig 01-11-2016 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 1053339)
... as opposed to Slate, MotherJones, and Media Matters? :rolleyes:

Of course they're biased, so were the ones you referenced. That was the point.
There is news, and there is opinion, right?

Danzig 01-11-2016 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 1053350)
Good analysis.

New York will be difficult due to historic left leaning, but I wasn't sure if Trump would get any edge for being a lifelong New Yorker versus Hillary's carpetbagger status for when she accepted the Moynihan senate seat as part of that plan to get her in office. You know - she couldn't be bothered by running for the House - would have been "beneath" her.

Why would trump get an edge at all?

joeydb 01-11-2016 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 1053359)
Why would trump get an edge at all?

He has a local connection to New York, for life, where Hillary moved there to carpetbag a Senate seat. That's all. Might not add up to anything.

jms62 01-11-2016 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 1053359)
Why would trump get an edge at all?

Joey pretty much guaranteed a Mitt Romney victory last election and I believe McCain before that.. Kind of the LoneStar of election handicapping ;) I'm holding out hope he jumps on the Hillary bandwagon..... Again ;) if it isn't clear.

joeydb 01-11-2016 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 1053363)
Joey pretty much guaranteed a Mitt Romney victory last election and I believe McCain before that.. Kind of the LoneStar of election handicapping ;) I'm holding out hope he jumps on the Hillary bandwagon..... Again ;) if it isn't clear.

I don't recall that I guaranteed either, but of course that was the desired outcome. You could be right of course.

It would be hard to do worse than the current president. Unfortunately another prediction would was that he would "vote present" in the White House, and sadly that's what he has done.

Danzig 01-11-2016 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 1053362)
He has a local connection to New York, for life, where Hillary moved there to carpetbag a Senate seat. That's all. Might not add up to anything.

that doesn't mean squat. not in ny, and certainly not in the rest of the country.
i don't care for hilary one bit. but i'd vote for her over that dipshit trump any day of the week.

bigrun 01-11-2016 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem0822 (Post 1053338)
Breitbart.com and Fox, well those are both so known to provide " truth and fairness" :rolleyes:

:D:tro:

joeydb 01-11-2016 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 1053368)
that doesn't mean squat. not in ny, and certainly not in the rest of the country.
i don't care for hilary one bit. but i'd vote for her over that dipshit trump any day of the week.

Go any day but Tuesday... :D

Danzig 01-11-2016 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 1053372)
Go any day but Tuesday... :D

I am really hoping those are not the two choices.

OldDog 01-12-2016 07:45 AM

You might get your wish.

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editor...-democrats.htm

mclem0822 01-12-2016 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldDog (Post 1053399)

I would support Hillary if she wins the nomination. But Bernie is my choice as long as he is in the race. He is drawing huge crowds, and she is beginning to take some shots ( no pun intended for Bernie on guns lol) against him.

Danzig 01-12-2016 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem0822 (Post 1053404)
I would support Hillary if she wins the nomination. But Bernie is my choice as long as he is in the race. He is drawing huge crowds, and she is beginning to take some shots ( no pun intended for Bernie on guns lol) against him.

i prefer bernie over her for sure.

joeydb 01-12-2016 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldDog (Post 1053399)

Could be Trump vs. Sanders, and, political correctness aside, if you were looking at turnout at rallies, those would be the two names an unbiased observer would come up with at this point.

Danzig 01-12-2016 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeydb (Post 1053409)
Could be Trump vs. Sanders, and, political correctness aside, if you were looking at turnout at rallies, those would be the two names an unbiased observer would come up with at this point.

what unbiased observer deduced that?


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