Derby Trail Forums - 8/1: Saratoga (Day 8; $309k C/O; Vanderbilt); Del Mar (7th-10th)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 12f-IT (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Midnight Notes 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Coturnix 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Cozy Kitten 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Dreams Cut Short 8-1 2nd

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Top pair earn marks for experience; Value player Tricky Citizen a full brother of Trickmeister for Samantha Seigel..

Most Likely: #5 Sticksstatelydude 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Next Best: #3 Remarkable Tale 6-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Tricky Citizen 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #6 Conquest Nitro 10-1 3rd

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Excellent group. Loose On the Town and Delta Outlaw tough to exclude..

Best Value: #6 First Down 5-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Knuckle Curve 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Roll Tide Roll 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Political Justice 8-1 7th

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Very tricky set of MDN 3yo fillies..

Most Likely: #4 Strong Incentive 3-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Nothingbutthetruth 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Future Show 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Coming Attraction 6-1 WON ($13.60)

5th: 23rd Amsterdam (G2), 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Favored Holy Boss has been brilliantly handled by the Asmussen team and comes to to the Amsterdam/King's Bishop opportunity fresh from 11 weeks off. Working sharp for spot and can press or stalk Victory is Sweet the same way he did in the Chic Lang. Requite is the new face with upside and value. Barbados or March figure to close into a paycheck..

Most Likely: #7 Holy Boss 5-2 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #1 Requite 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Victory Is Sweet 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Barbados 7-2 3rd

P5 Grid:

1: 5-7 (A), 6 (B), 3-8 (C)
2: 3 (A), 5 (B), 1-4-6-7-10 (C)
3: 3-6 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-4 (C)
4: 4 (A), 1 (B), 3-6 (C)
5: 7 (A), 1-4 (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C):

P4 Grid:

2: 3-5 (A), 1-4-6-7 (B), 10 (C)
3: 3-6 (A), 7-8 (B), 2-4 (C)
4: 4 (A), 1 (B), 3-6 (C)
5: 7 (A), 1-4 (B), 3-5 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C):

6th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$309,844 3-day P6 C/O starts here..

Deep, difficult set of ALW sophs with variety of surface moves, cut backs and stretchouts complicating assessments. Pace looks solid to fast opening it up to all styles of runner..

Most Likely: #4 Overcontrol 6-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Lone Trader 8-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Johnson City Kid 10-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Dreaming of Gold 3-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Extended turf route assembles layers of well bred 'slowish' types. The Mott pair (#3/#5) both look imposing and Macagone (Nihei) could take them all the way around. But Jimmy Jerkens gets opportunity and look with 'first North America' Team Colors (By Street Cry out of Teammate) for Joe Allen and there's a lot here that intrigues. Teammate, a half sister of War Front, was trained by The Chief of course and amassed an enviable record that featured graded stakes wins at 3 (Bonnie Miss) and 4 (Shuvee), as well as 5 placings in G1's including an epic Alabama effort in 2006 which saw Pine Island overhaul her late. Fresh face among a solid but unspectacular group that feels vulnerable to an outsider..

Most Likely: #5 Go Around 9-2 WON ($10.40)
Best Value: #10 Team Colors 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Orange Grove 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #12 Macagone 12-1 4th

8th: 31st Vanderbilt (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Superb Vandy with great variety of pace players figuring to give best on the day fair chance.

Most Likely: #3 Rock Fall 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #6 The Big Beast 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Clearly Now 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Salutos Amigos 5-2 4th

9th: 57th Bowling Green (G2), 4+, 11f-IT (P3, DD)

The Bowling Green will now have been run at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga. And as a reminder about historical aspects, Al Khali won this.. in 2010! The 4 ML faves (#'s 1-2-3-7) are the obvious likelies, with 15-1 Iron Power the one potential interloper out in front for a good long way in his graded stakes debut..

Most Likely: #2 War Dancer 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Imagining 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Innovation Economy 5-2 DNF-Pulled Up
Super Add: #1 Red Rifle 5-1 WON ($15.40)

10th: 52nd Jim Dandy (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Obviously not an ideal scenario retaining 4 for this with Upstart & Competitive Edge in NJ and Tekton running Friday (2nd, Curlin), but credentialed Frosted, rebuilding Texas Red, emerging Japan and plucky Frammento still comprise a nice group. Desormeaux will have to keep Texas Red closer to the pace (Japan) or that one will get away..

Most Likely: #3 Texas Red WON ($5.70)
Next Best: #2 Japan 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Frosted 2nd

11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T

Best Value: #2 Rico Capote 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Tax Package 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1e R. Cash entry 5-1 2nd/6th
Super Add: #11 Bajan Summer 15-1 8th

P6 Grid:

6: 4 (A), 9 (B), 6-7 (C)
7: 5 (A), 3-10 (B), 12 (C)
8: 3 (A), - (B), 2-4-6-7 (C)
9: 2-3 (A), 1-7 (B), 4 (C)
10: 3 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
11: 2 (A), 8 (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x1x4x3x2 = 144 x $2 = $288
Full (A/B/C):

P4 Grid:

8: 3-6 (A), 2-4-7 (B), 1-5 (C)
9: 2-3 (A), 1-7 (B), 4 (C)
10: 3 (A), 2-7 (B), - (C)
11: 2 (A), 1-8 (B), 4-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x3x3 = 180 x .50 = $90
Full (A/B/C):

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Serious looking group of baby girls. Watch this race carefully as there are a number of talents signed on and only one is graduating..

Most Likely: #2 Oh Great Idea 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Flying Tinkerbell 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 One Last Shot 3-1 WON ($12.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Seaside Glory 12-1 3rd

8th: 45th Clement L. Hirsch (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Beholder rock solid but hardly invincible. Honey Ride going in right direction and of course Warren's Veneda within range on best..

Most Likely: #1 Beholder 6-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #2 Honey Ride 10-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Warren's Veneda 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Thegirlinthatsong 5-1 8th

9th: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Perfect Set 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Seeking the West 5-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Smooth Roller 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Short Heat Wave 20-1 5th

10th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)

Excellent nightcap. Feels like all 5 of these need to be covered..

Best Value: #2 Win the Space 10-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #1 Rosicky 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Dylan Ward 3-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Second Summer 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #11 Tirpitz 5-1 6th

P4 Grid:

7: 2-5 (A), 1-3-4-10 (B), 9 (C)
8: 1 (A), 2 (B), 4 (C)
9: 7 (A), 4-8 (B), 2-5 (C)
10: 1-2 (A), 4-7-11 (B), 3 (C)

$0.50 Pick-4 (4/1,9/8/2) Paid $241.20

Simple (A+B): 6x2x3x5 = 180 x .50 = $90
Full (A/B/C):

Good luck!
Steve