Derby Trail Forums - Churchill Downs Saturday May 2

Solid start to the weekend. Didn't hit any big multis but the $43 winner made for a nice P3 and the Tri keying 1 and 5 behind Pletcher on the turf was a great payout given the fact they were the only three in the race. Now onto Saturday...

Race 1:
#4 Jerald: Switched on with the addition of blinkers and was a tad short heading into a tough Opt Clm at Keeneland. Two prior starts make him dangerous at a big price.
#5 Coastline
#8 Irish You Well
#3 Paganol

Race 2:
#1 Coupled Entry: Both parts look major threats.
#4 Tapit Wicked: Fought well given the closing fractions. Will be biggest price to date.
#3 Yockey's Warrior: Speed to burn, but can he last the full 7f?
#7 Island Town: Hard to excuse his return run. Maybe just prefers the CD course.

Race 3:
The AEs I liked did not draw in...
#9 Reach for a Kitten: First two turf runs either side of an extended break were more than good enough. Last one wasn't truly run.
#5 Gandono: Well-bred expensive purchase may wake up with the blinkers on.
#4 West Village: Closed well from an impossible spot in second career start. Turf shouldn't be an issue.
#6 Stormy Deacon: Pulpit foal steadily improving and not implausible to see a career-best on the surface switch.
#2 Thatcher Street: Consistently knocking around the exotics. Must use underneath.

Race 4:
Scratching of single Carve makes this the least confident race of the day...
#6 Cat Burglar: Ability is there, but is a one-turn mile too short? Baffert should have him ready.
#5 Bellarmine: Numbers a bit light but can't knock the record at the track and at a mile.
#7 Jessica's Star: Winner on Derby Day last year. Should improve off last.
#8 Agent Di Nozzo: Always thereabouts without a serious threat to win.

Race 5:
#5 Lord Nelson: Last was his first loss sprinting yet he was much the best that day. Working well here.
#6 Competitive Edge: Can only beat what's put in front of you. Gets the test today but has the ability to pass it.
#2 Gimme Da Lute: Impressive in last, but these aren't Cal-breds.
#3 The Truth Or Else: One-turn mile winner at Belmont in '35 and change.

Race 6:
#5 Another Lemon Drop: Line came too soon against a 63-1 shot (#13). Will relish the readdition of the extra furlong.
#3 Granny's Kitten is SCR...
#1 Luck of the Kitten: Shown the most to date, but might not get it his own way up from.
#2 Wireless Future: Dueled in quick splits on the Poly. Will appreciate the return to grass.
#14 World Approval: Another royally bred runner in here. How was he 8-1 on turf debut???? If he wins from the parking lot draw then we've got a star on our hands...

Race 7:
#3 Dame Dorothy: Has crucial early speed in a paceless race. She might be best around this one-turn.
#6 Moonlit Stroll: A big step-up but has been flying in the mornings. Hard to judge as she's only had the one start at 4 and none on a fast dirt but can't fault the works.
#8 Judy the Beauty: Obviously the most talented on her day but hasn't always brought it to Churchill. Beaten here last year when also carrying 123 lbs.
#1 Sweet Reason: Missed a little bit of training prior to the BC which resulted in only her second one-turn loss. Also missed a couple weeks before this one. Cautious.

Race 8:
#8 Sandiva: Caught late after a wide trip when conceding weight. Gets the positive swing this time around and is much the one to beat.
#11 Water Hole: Quickly progressed in the UK, couldn't last the 10f, not disgraced in France, and excused when back in 11 days (and presumably bred). Chad hasn't missed a beat with her in training.
#4 Lady Lara: Has beaten the top pick twice now but now is on the wrong side of the weight break. Also was the lesser of the two overseas.
#7 Solid Appeal: Something clearly amiss in the Canadian and well short when returning at KEE. If she can return to her best she's a contender at odds.
#3 Tepin the impressive workmate with Danzig Moon but hard to bet otherwise...#12 Kitty Wine lost first run last time and with a better run can threaten the lower exotics.

Race 9:
#2 Bayern: Lots of speed signed up to burn him early but his class should tell.
#1 C. Zee: Improving 4yo was closing strongly behind eventual BC winner in the Phoenix at the tail-end of 3yo campaign. Can pick up the pieces if all guns blazing up front.
#4 Private Zone: Navarro juice to wear off outside of Fla.
#5 Pants On Fire: Race will be run to suit but he's a cut below.

Race 10:
#9 Seek Again: Missed by a head to Wise Dan in this last year when returning from a similar (one month less) layoff. 4 lbs less this year and is the best on paper.
#11 Slumber: Late bloomer for Chad narrowly missed in a G1 two back. Couldn't get past a stubborn wirejob as the beaten fav but looks primed third off the layoff.
With the SCRs of the pacemakers it is imperative to use #10 Chocolate Ride...
#8 Stephanie's Kitten is SCR...
#5 Finnegans Wake: Resurgence of form since the barn change but hasn't beaten much in doing so.
#7 Jack Milton: Finally got the breakthrough in a G1 last out but that wasn't a strong field. Spots the field weight as a result of that W.
#3 Umgiyo: de Kock's record in North America is well documented but those six were all champions. I'm not sure this one is fit to be any of their ponies. With that being said, the turf route division is relatively weak and de Kock is de Kock (and I'm not strong enough to take a complete stand...)

Race 11:
Welcome to the Kentucky Derby, the most overanalyzed race in the sport of kings. Admittedly, I've also fallen into this trap. I've had this analysis worked on for weeks as a way to keep notes down. Two disappointing SCRs as I wasn't going to use either of them at all.

#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho: Hasn't progressed as a 3yo and didn't put up much resistance in the Blue Grass. Went back to SA before coming to CD. Doesn't seem to want more ground. Rail draw a kick in the teeth. VERDICT: Toss.

#2 Carpe Diem: The first question when it comes to this horse is how would one view him if his trainer was not named Pletcher? I'm not sure that ignoring that would change my opinion of him. He got the perfect trip in the Breeders' Futurity and was well beaten when getting a great set-up in the BC Juvy. The Tampa was result wasn't anything unexpected and to me he wasn't very impressive to the eye in the Blue Grass. I'm skeptical of his want to run the full 10f and then add in the aforementioned Pletcher factor...VERDICT: Fits my system as a winner but on paper (and to the eye) I don't like him whatsoever. Use underneath as a backup.

#3 Materiality: Colt looks to have a big future ahead but this is far too soon. Two horses have run in the KY Derby after winning the Fla Derby with similar Beyers and neither finished ITM. The third scratched due to a quarter crack. Be wary of the bounce factor. I can't envision a Pletcher runner breaking the Apollo curse, but what gets it for me is the fact that horses to have run 2nd without running at 2 have at least had the foundation of four lifetime starts. VERDICT: Can't deny the potential ability but third at best seems most reasonable. Small cover ex but won't use him in the second spot otherwise.

#4 Tencendur: I really liked his chances in the Wood and I feel that was the day to use him. I struggle to see him running a strong 10f and is eligible to bounce off what was by far a career best. VERDICT: Slim chance to hit the super.

#5 Danzig Moon: If you ignore the Tampa result where it has been reported that he wasn't himself then we see a colt who has improved significantly with every race. He has a sibling that has won at 11f and 12f and the way he finished off in the Blue Grass confirmed the distance won't be what beats him. He is consistently strong at the wire and the numbers back that up. Reportedly has been very impressive in the mornings, if you can get past the fact that he couldn't get past Tepin in 58 flat, and very much one to consider. VERDICT: Would be a massive exception if he won but is a very, very realistic exotics bomber.

#6 Mubtaahij: Certain "factors" about him have been popping up recently, but I feel those are all misleading. 1) As a 2yo he broke his maiden against 3 and 4 year olds. In reality, yes he was 2, but if the race was one day later he would have been 3yo. He got 12/13 lbs from the entire field bar one, and that field was absolutely atrocious. Mr. Z's performance in the LA Derby would have won that race by 10 lengths. An early 3yo beating older is always noteworthy but this must be put into perspective. 2) The UAE Derby was a quality bunch. I'm not necessarily arguing against that, but let's delve deeper into that quality. I talked up Golden Barrows based upon his scintillating turn of foot on the February Stakes undercard (seriously, watch it: http://web-cache.stream.ne.jp/web/jr...501050809&ua=4 ). In Dubai, he was extremely rank, dueled on the lead, and inevitably didn't stay the 9.5f. That's not his race and therefore not a true performance of his ability. Sir Fever was a Uruguayan Triple Crown winner and that's no slim feat. However, and please correct me if I'm wrong, it is very seldom that South Americans replicate that form in Dubai. Regardless of that, he ran into massive trouble on the first turn and took two rough checks. Race was over for him at that point. Other than those two the field was nothing to write about. 3) Mike de Kock has had six runners in the USA and all of them have finished ITM. Firstly, none of these six were on dirt, but secondly, and more importantly, none of them shipped from Dubai, making this stat even more suspect. Let's first see how Umgiyo runs. Even if we disregard all this, he likes to take up a perfect position just behind the speed, generally on the rail. Good luck getting a nice, clean trip with that in the Derby. I'm not downplaying his turn of foot in the UAE Derby but it was deceptive as a huge part of that was the others hitting the wall. If he sits where he normally has been he'll be going much quicker than used to, rendering that kick more much ineffective. You'd have to go back to Count Fleet to find a Derby winner with a similar dosage profile. If he turns out that good, I'll tip my hat and take the abuse. VERDICT: Unknown really, but I've used him mainly in deep plays for 3rd and 4th with a small cover ex.

#8 Dortmund: I look at the one race where he wasn't in the clear, whether it be on the lead or tracking, and got true kickback and see just how rank he was. He's of course come a long way since that career debut and the blinkers were quickly removed for his next start, but that really was his only run with traffic and dirt directly in his face. I can't see him wiring the field and who knows if he would he be that way on Saturday in the same circumstances, but it has to give off some element of doubt. I liken his LA Futurity run to that of Pharoah's last in that he got a perfect in the clear trip behind suicidal fractions. He certainly has proven he's a worthy winner and doesn't have much going against him, but I just worry about the potential trouble his big frame might get in in traffic or if he becomes hard to control. Can't deny his gameness but consider this: Baffert's three Derby winners have all had three works on the CD strip, and his four ITM finishers have all had at least two. Dortmund will have had none. Make of this what you will, but Baffert has generally sent his horses to CD early, and in fact from his 20+ starters has only had two that stayed at SA all the way: Point Determined and Bob and John, both in 2006. Neither were close to threatening. VERDICT: Potential winner but without confidence and not the main use.

#9 Bolo: Seems to have become a bit of a forgotten horse. Thought he ran great in his dirt debut after having issues in the lead-up, and Trakus numbers aside, to the eyes he ran a wide trip at the back without cover behind a wire to wire winner. From a pure trip standpoint alone I can somewhat excuse that dull finish. Don't forget that he had an extremely quick blowout, I'll have to look at the lifetime PPs to see if he's ever had one that quick prior to a race, just a few days before which could have emptied the tank. I don't disagree that he probably is better on other surfaces, but that hasn't stopped others from running great in this race (as well as the track in general). Dullahan was a fast-closing third in 2012 and Dance With Fate last year, even though he only finished 6th, ran huge with a mess of a trip. Don't forget Animal Kingdom and Barbaro. Really taken to the track since arriving and very fond of the booking of Bejarano. VERDICT: Winning is a stretch but this is a very live place horse at a huge price.

#10 Firing Line: I'm not too sure what people see in this horse. Had every chance to and should have beat Dortmund at SA. The field at Sunland, with all due respect, was a complete joke. Doesn't fit my profile of a winner and his dosage profile leaves a lot to be desired. 9f looks the limit for this guy. VERDICT: Although I've just been super negative about him, maybe, just maybe he can hang on for third. Will have a cheap ex saver in the event I'm wrong and he runs second, but not using him on top whatsoever.

#12 International Star, my key exotics horse, is SCR...

#13 Itsaknockout: Undeservedly placed winner of the FOY. Exposed and was run off his feet in the Fla Derby. A career high LP of 92 doesn't make him a factor. VERDICT: Complete toss.

#14 Keen Ice: We know that he'll be moving in the right direction at the right time. However, his kick is not strong enough to overcome the fact that he is far too slow early on. Seems too one-paced for my liking. He'll be passing tired ones late, but not strongly enough to be an overly seriously exotics threat. VERDICT: 4th at best. Last horse in my super.

#15 Frosted: Have had on and off thoughts about him being one of my main Derby contenders since prior to the Remsen, but now it simply comes down to the fact that he by far had the most impressive win in any of the preps. It's one thing to be in front at the head of the lane and keep on going without being touched, but it's something else to have to run down the leader in QUICK closing fractions under mild hand urging after sitting wide through a crawl. And he won going away. I don't like Tencendur's chances in this race but he was a very live horse that day. That's proven by the fact that other than Materiality, he is the only other horse who in his last prep had a fellow Derby runner behind him that had both a triple digit Beyer (Danzig Moon) and BRIS rating (DM & El Kabeir). The Wood Memorial stat since 2003 is a bit bogus. Bellamy Road ran huge in '05 with a compromised trip. Eskendereya and I Want Revenge were two impressive winners who didn't make the Derby. He was absolutely toying with the FOY field until he had his palate issue, which you can visibly see occurring. This was a talented horse with the issue, and with that corrected is a whole new beast. Looks every part of a classic type winner. He also has the deadly combo in that he fits almost every angle out there and barely has any knocks. There are only three things I can find to go against him, and they are all stretching it. 1) He might potentially be a wise-guy horse, and generally they don't do so well in the Derby. In the grand scheme of things this is very irrelevant. 2) He added blinkers as a 3yo, but I think that the equipment change at 3 stat is farfetched because if you do your research you'll see that barely any of those horses had chances in the Derby. I do consider the BLK ON/OFF in the last prep and important consideration, but this is different. 3) He shipped from PMM to AQU to PMM to CD. Usually not a fan of shipping so much, but that really is the only thing. Is it really a big deal? In McLaughlin I trust...Put the icing on the cake because this Derby is Frosted...VERDICT: Top pick.

#16 War Story: Expected continued progress and as a result was extremely high on his chances prior to the LA Derby. Backed him in Futures but he was an utter disappointment in that race. Appears that the distance will take its toll as his progress has stalled as he's gone further. VERDICT: If he wins, great, I've got Futures, but I won't be using him on current tickets.

#17 Mr. Z: Looks a tired horse who needs a break. Can't see him lasting after going forward early nor can I see him running on as a factor if he takes back. VERDICT: Not on any of my tickets.

#18 American Pharoah: As we all know, this is the one with all the hype. He certainly looks the part with his fluid strides, but at such a short price in a race like this I would not be confident on his chances with respect to those odds. He may be a freak and turn out to be by far the best horse in the race, but I can't justify taking 5-2 on a horse that with respect to Derby trends would certainly be quite the exception. And it's not as if it's only one thing, he's just got so much going against him. His rushed preparation, the lack of stamina on the dam's side, his last race LP, his dosage profile, the Storm Cat sire line...add in the fact that he's untested and I become even more dubious about his chances to win. I'm also unconvinced about his true ability to rate. He sat a perfect trip second in the clear behind a blistering pace in the Ark Derby, does that really tell us much? Sure, he "rated" kindly, but realistically was he going to be rank in those splits? If he's up that close in similar fractions he would need to be the second coming to hold on. How will he respond if he's in behind horses getting kickback? His numbers are definitely good but by no means is he a standout from that perspective either. Better yet, he hasn't even faced a field of 10 horses...how will he handle a stampede of 20? It would not surprise me if he wins and I definitely will have cover multiples and a saver EX, but I truly feel those will be my least-confident plays of the weekend. VERDICT: A win, while unlikely, would not surprise and logical exotics use but a nowhere to be found effort would be just as unsurprising.

#19 Upstart: The horse I've been most unsure about. Even though the infection was the slightest of blips, horses don't seem to win these races after suffering those. Also very hard to read the FLA form given the tiring track. Thought he was solidly beaten in the BC and might just be a notch below. VERDICT: Have a small cover with him as a winner but majority of use is underneath.

#20 Far Right: IMO the Arkansas group was one of the weakest this year and he did not tower over them. Couldn't match the class of AP in the Ark Derby and the $2.5k yearling is just plainly not fast enough. Talked about as a potential closer but he hasn't closed as strongly as the two Stewart runners had heading into their Derby. VERDICT: Can't see him clunking up into the super.

#21 Frammento: Really didn't want him to draw in. Not fond of him and tough to see him working out a solid trip but have to use deep underneath given the nature of this race. VERDICT: Use underneath on deep tickets.

My top four when trying to pick the first four home cold:
1) #15 Frosted
2) #9 Bolo
3) #18 American Pharaoh
4) #19 Upstart

My top four win chances:
1) #15 Frosted
2) #19 Upstart
3) #8 Dortmund
4) #18 American Pharoah

How I'll play the Derby with $252:
$5 Ex 15/8, 9, 18, 19 $20
$5 Ex 8, 18, 19/15 $15
$3 Ex 15/5, 6 $6
$2 Ex 15/2, 21 $4
$2 Ex 8, 18, 19/5, 6, 8, 9, 18, 19 $30
$1 Ex 8, 18, 19/2, 21 $6
$1 Ex 2, 6/15 $2
$1 Tri 15/8, 9, 18, 19/3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 18, 19, 21 $32
$1 Tri 15/5, 6/3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 18, 19, 21 $16
$1 Tri 8, 18, 19/15/3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 18, 19, 21 $24
$1 Tri 8, 18, 19/5, 6, 8, 9, 18, 19/15 $15
$1 Tri 8, 18, 19/8, 9, 18, 19/8, 9, 18, 19 $18
$1 Super 15/9, 18/3, 8, 9, 18, 19/3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 14, 18, 19, 21 $64

Race 12:
Best runners are SCRed. ALL.

Race 13:
#12 Muntij: Sports some quick works at CD. Worth a shot trying the surface for the first time on raceday.
#6 Bent On Bourbon: Put up big numbers when just getting nipped last out. The one to run down again.
#7 Cat Ride: Speedy works followed by some maintenance moves. Looks the type to win early.
#4 Wild and Unbridled: Took a lot of action on debut, twice as one was cancelled) as if he was a good thing. Faltered but will be rewarded greatly if you keep the faith and the money proved right.

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 1, 3, 4
Race 3: 4, 5, 6, 9
Race 4: 5, 6, 7
Race 5: 2, 5, 6
$64.80

$0.60 Middle Pick Four
Race 4: 5, 6, 7
Race 5: 2, 5, 6
Race 6: 1, 2, 5, 14
Race 7: 3, 6, 8
$64.80

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 7: 3
Race 8: 4, 7, 8, 11
Race 9: 1, 2
Race 10: 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11
Race 11: 15
$28.80

$0.60 Stakes Pick Four
Race 8: 4, 7, 8, 11
Race 9: 1, 2
Race 10: 9, 10, 11
Race 11: 8, 12, 15, 18, 19
$72.00
$2 Ticket: 8/1, 2/9, 10, 11/15 = $12

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 10: 9, 10, 11
Race 11: 15
Race 12: ALL (10)
Race 13: 6, 7, 12
$54.00

Good luck!