These two are exciting!
 

Although there probably won't be a triple crown winner this year, Dortmund and American Pharaoh look like they can bring us back to the glory years of racing.

As we near the Derby I can't help but hope for another year of racing like Easy Goer and Sunday Silence or Affirmed and Alydar.

I can see them trading victories in the triple crown and beyond. Visually they are two brilliant looking animals when they run. The other 18 in the derby are going to have their hooves full trying beat these guys.

They have a great chance to make something special happen. I hope it does.

I disagree. I think it's much more likely this year relative to most other years

While the quality depth of this year's crop logically makes it more difficult to win the Triple Crown, we may actually have race horses that are good enough to do it. Despite a lot of close calls, no Triple Crown winner has been just a "very good" horse who took advantage of a weak year.

Trading victories after the TC? I'd put the over/under on the times they meet on the track after the TC at .5, and I'd bet the under.

And I'd have the same over/under even if I knew for certain that both finish the year.

thanks....Debbie Downer

I think Frosted and Upstart both have a big chance to win this race.

Well, they do have the same trainer. Why would they face each other other than the BC?

I agree. Materiality, too, IMO. And looking at the BRIS PP's (thanks for the link, kasept!), I see that Mubtaahij won a couple of races with 13 horses. That's gotta be a plus for his chances in the mayhem that is the Ky Derby.

--Dunbar

Personally I'd like to see a American Pharaoh/Mubtaahij rivalry develop with of course American Pharaoh winning the TC. :D

good point but that does not necessarily mean they wont race each other. if they run in all 3 races they will be on the same kind of timeline barring any physical issues. i think that the owners still want to win races too. like the jockey gold cup, the haskell etc...

closest ive seen recently has to be the street sense, curlin, hard spun year...but i think these two may be a bit better. and yes i understand they didnt have the same trainer....and what about a trainer switch?....could happen.

Judging from all the hoopla, it seems AP and Dortmund are going to be WAY shorter prices than everyone else in the field. Must be that East Coast Bias. :rolleyes:

I think you are right that two are exciting, but the two are MATERIALITY and Mubtaahij, and both are exciting at a price

AP still looks like he is sitting on a big one and is a rightful favorite. Dortmund also is well deserving. I'm looking forward to seeing post positions here. There seems to be plenty of speed and International Star is very intriguing to me in this race.

With a dream trip - I like Danzig Moon a little now (though who really knows in a 20 horse field, pre-draw) but after I dismissed everything out of the Bluegrass, I re-watched it a few times, and Danzig Moon was absolutely inhaling ground in the stretch. He's going to be on my ticket.
I don't know why Firing Line not in the discussion, having only been beaten a head twice by Dortmund. Dortmund just has the look of a big, unwieldly speedball (who doesn't seem to factor as the speed of the speed) that can find a lot of trouble if he draws inside of the other speed. He appears to me as horse that will not take a heavy bump well and recover quickly.

At this point I'm not thrilled with the Materiality or Upstart's prospects, and have no clue what to do with Mubtaahij.

My main keys (subject to change) are AP, Firing Line, International Star, Danzig Moon, and Frosted.

Dortmund has rated and won 2x. Once at Churchill. I think he is the horse to beat. I think anyone but him, AP, Upstart and Frosted is a serious upset.
I don't get Danzig Moon at all. He was making up ground on the most overated horse in this crop. He will be a big price though and probably has the proper running style to get a piece.

He wasn't *rated* so much as he simply wasn't faster than Firing Line - which could be the kiss of death for a horse like this IF he draws down inside of the real speed. Not saying he isn't a top prospect, just not for me in a race like this without knowing where he's breaking from.

I guess. He rated at Churchill though.

If you can call being a length and a half off a 46 flat half mile -being rated - then I guess.

I think he is a speed horse that isn't as fast as the other speed, but also clearly doesn't need the lead early. Again, not slamming the horse -he is magnificent.

Just that his size + his running style in a 20 horse field with faster horses around him is a far from ideal circumstance to be taking short money on him, is all.

i would like to see a rematch....

but it feels so good. I just like being right. It really feels good to pick the right horse.:):):):)

Wait....I just read this elsewhere. Twice, at that. I think. Make it stop. Thx.