Mubtaahij - Is he a real Derby threat?
 

Is this horse the real deal? Or is he just racing sub par competition in Dubai?

Whats the scoop on this horse?

I'm sure someone much more qualified (like Pat) can answer your question but here are his last few races...

Al Bastakiya:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERn8eUQzdY0

UAE 2000 Guineas (2nd):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc5Lmuyrfms

2000 Guineas Trial:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt8PLSSLhyE

I love the added camera angles at that track...

As Marcus Hersh wrote this weekend, "I don't know." His win on Saturday was his best, easily beating the previously undefeated Sir Fever, the most expensive private purchase in Uruguayan history (more than Invasor), and he is some six months younger too. But Sir Fever was fresh, and untested outside Uruguay. That said, it was still a good win.

Here is what we know - if he runs first or a good second in the UAE Derby and remains healthy, I think we would see him in Louisville based on my discussions with connections.

You had to quote Marcus just to say you don't know?

Thanks for posting these videos My Miss Storm Cat!

Really impressive looking colt. I hope we see him over here soon.

Cheers,

Otis

Simply put, no. Aside from the Uruguayan there was no quality in this race. The field was comparative with the recent American preps worth no Derby points. He's also got no dirt pedigree to speak of, so it'd be a guess to say he can do it against the best. Better ones have come over and done absolutely nothing, and there's no reason to believe he would be more competitive than those. Unless he does something magical in the UAE Derby I wouldn't even consider him in any of my wagers.

By no means do I think Mubtaahij is the next coming, but it's not as if the rest of the field was anywhere close to the top two. Mubtaahij was 13 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

And as for his dirt pedigree, how much does it really matter when he has three wins and was beaten a nose in a fourth race over a deep, sandy surface? At this point, I think it's pretty clear that he gets over dirt.

If a G1 turf winner beats N1X quality on the dirt, is it fair to say he can handle the dirt based solely on that evidence? Of course that is purposely an extreme example, but my point is that until he beats substance on the surface I'm not convinced.

It's kind of tough to question whether a horse with multiple dirt wins can handle dirt.

I question whether he is going to be effective enough on the surface to win a quality race like the Kentucky Derby. Yes, he has obviously done okay on it to date, but the point of my last post was that it doesn't mean a lot to me when it's against much lesser. If it was so easy to come over and win these types of races we would see it happen more often. He's not a Raven's Pass or an Arcangues coming over with proven G1 quality, granted he hasn't yet had the opportunity, and maybe he'll be an aberration, but I haven't seen anything whether it be visually or on paper that signals him to be a serious Derby contender.

I can't calculate how much money I burned in the late 90's early 2000's trying to cover all the Euro/UAE horses in my exotics. One of these days, somebody will ship over and win, but they won't have my money backing them.

2 things to keep in mind. Sir Fever was coming off a long layoff, and I thought was very game in defeat. I think he's got a big chance to turn the tables in the UAE Derby.

But if Mubtaahij does take care of business in the UAE Derby, as much as the stats are completely against him having any success in the Kentucky Derby, he's very live if he goes. The reason- Mike de Kock. Dude is arguably the best trainer in the world. And how many horses has he ever shipped to the US? 4? If the horse comes, de Kick isn't taking a flyer and hoping for the best. He's in it to win it.

So I'd love to see the horse win and ship here due to the de Kock factor alone.

De Kock vs the quarantine = major issues.

I dont know how he is the best trainer in the world. Are there a lot of world beaters in South Africa?

Suggest you do some research.

Which quarantine? The one in the US? No sweat. He'd laugh at that assertion considering the quarantine they deal with getting out of South Africa.

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/a...ne-route-dubai