Derby Trail Forums - GP/SA Sunday Feb. 1 Analysis

First some longshots elsewhere...
TAM R5: #9 Totally Empressive: Bullet work on the huge upgrade to Centeno. Use with 2, 6, 7, 8.
FG R4: #2 Bad News Brown: Heatseeker progeny excel first on the lawn. Cheap race can lead to anything.
OP R7: #9 Catty N Sassy: Stop and start in the return. Robertson due to get going.

GP
Race 5:
#5 Picardia is SCR...
Toss up between the two Chad FTS, #2 Dancing Onthemoon and #4 Avalanche Girl.
#3 Frank's Star: Repeat of her debut makes her tough to beat, but at a short price it's not worth the risk of her proving it wasn't a fluke.

Race 6:
#2 Rhythm Park: Bradley not known for firster prowess but this one ran superb behind a runner who I'm still highly interested in for the Derby. Torrid trip off the shelf going longer but condition is good enough to run back quickly in a race where experience may be key. Question marks surrounding the entire field, meaning this race has a bomb written all over it.
#7 Sea Storm: Battled well after a fast pace but turf works not overly enticing.
#4 Allstar Dancer: Key turf work on Dec 15 but no turf pedigree on the bottom.
#1 Ganesh: Looks the best of the FTS but distance a major concern.

Race 7:
Absolute crapshoot.
#13 Gu Gu Beans: Maiden winner against the boys and ran evenly enough in this class in her third start in 10 days. Huge run last out when overland throughout and I like the barn change. Bravo was aboard for the win from post 12 so hopefully he can negate the draw again.
#6 Aly Cruise: Has improved with every start and his three runs when getting a stalking trip are good enough to win this, even on the class rise.
#5 Blisstering Strike: Put in an impossible spot in a dawdle and is dangerous on the drop.
#12 Crashing Conclave: Got the breakthrough last time out at GPW but still needs to improve on that.

Race 8:
#3 Heliodoro: Spaced works leading up to debut but they were on the quick side. Two slick ones since, blinkers on, jock upgrade...wire to wire at odds.
#7 Tennessee: $1.15mil Coolmore/Pletcher FTS sports bullets, but always skeptical when Pletch runs two debutants in the same affair. Dam won over $300k sprinting.
#10 Grand Bill: Solid worktab for the City Zip foal. Barn sneaky with firsters and this one seems the better of the two on paper.
#8 Pool Winner: A lot of work put into him for the debut but Goldberg normally strikes on the grass.

Race 9:
#8 Matar: 6.5f is the furthest he's run on the turf and that was a career best. Breeding says he should like this longer distance. Off the long layoff on the barn change but Ward can bring them back ready.
#3 Tiger Bourbon: Continues to drop, but expecting better against the easiest he's faced on his form after needing his return run.
#7 March Reward: Hit the lead too early in his last. Won an Optional 50k two back, so why is he in for 20k?
#13 Say Ow: Made a premature move at 7-2 against tougher (same race as #7). Another plunger that can win if the right horse shows up.

Race 10:
#7 Can't Explain: Only three runs in 2014 but all of those make her super competitive here. Encouraging work tab off the shelf and the trip looks favourable.
#1 Charlie A is SCR...
#10 Zloty: May need one to get back to her best, but she isn't facing a stacked field here.
#2 Spangled Banner: Three turf runs have arguably been her best. Only four works off the layoff but barn generally has them ready.
#6 Miss Melinda: Hasn't lived up to her debut promise but she ran well against tougher at the Spa. Mott-Lezcano have been ice, however.

Race 11:
#9 J. Quirk: Roughed up in turf debut and followed that up with a solid 4th behind Crown Queen. Caught late off the 7 month layoff and will be fitter for this. Lack of speed in this event gives her a potentially perfect trip.
#4 Mumtaazah: Lost first run when trying the lawn for the first time but still got up for second. Four works since signals the intent.
#10 Talaria: Big run at a monster price on debut and I feel like we didn't see her best next out. I like the barn change and the fact that Paco rides. Lasix will help this bomber.
#12 Ramble: Debuted well without Lasix but wasn't seen for 11 months. Tough trip when returning from that layoff but still ran third. Ignore the mud try, but I really don't like that work since.

$0.60 Pick Five
Race 7: 5, 6, 12, 13
Race 8: 3, 7, 10
Race 9: 3, 7, 8, 13
Race 10: 7
Race 11: 4, 9, 10
$86.40

$0.60 Pick Four
Race 8: 3, 7, 10
Race 9: 3, 7, 8, 13
Race 10: 2, 6, 7, 10
Race 11: 4, 9, 10
$86.40

SA
Race 3:
#3 Aguafria: Comparable French form to the Sadler import. Nothing wrong with her first three Stateside and not disgraced when wide in a G3. Gotten ready for this in the AM.

Race 5:
#11 Screaming Skylar: 6/5 debuting but this is the surface where she belongs. Worktab entices for this expensive purchase.
#10 Satin Cinnamon: Hasn't had the best of trips for the majority of her races. I think this distance is more suitable and I expect a big run at odds.
#9 Curlin's Fox: Some dazzling bullets, but wary of the break from the 5th to the 18th.
#5 Emyvale Court: Stormy Atlantic foal by a turf sprinting dam. Long, consistent worktab for this Proctor FTS.
#8 Scattagirl: Even debuting at this distance and can run in the exotics.

Race 6:
#1 Lord Nelson: 2 for 2 sprinting. 7f looks prime.
#7 Bench Warrant: Beaten when short off the layoff and then again routing. Overlay based on two other runs.
#2 Serbian Syclone: Dangerous if he gets away early.
#4 Texas Red: Giving weight off the bench at 7f. Loved him in the BC but not here.

Race 8:
#7 Gold Locket: Headley gets them fit working them long, even if they're slow. Doesn't need to be much.
#11 Fab Four Ever: Freshed up and Truman on fire to start the meet.
#2 Foggy Fresh: Has had his chances. Rail draw poor at 6f and Baze doesn't stick.
#12 Dixie Dame: Trainer doesn't win often and too low in odds when must prove she can run big again.

$1 Pick Four
Race 5: 10, 11
Race 6: 1, 2, 7
Race 7: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11
Race 8: 7, 11
$84

Good luck!