Derby Trail Forums - 1/10: Gulfstream (7th-10th); Santa Anita (6th-9th)

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 29th Hal's Hope (G3), 4+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Lea and Golden Lad return here providing intrigue to short field renewal of this Donn prep. Valid's lay-it-down effort versus Liam's Map would be good enough to win here provided Lea doesn't come back with the kind of performance he offered winning last year's Donn. That's unlikely given Mott's style, but it still leaves Golden Lad (been working with Commissioner) eligible to tangle with the Vitali-Bocachica 5yo who has generally reacted after turning in biggest tries..

Most Likely: #2 Golden Lad 2-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Lea 9-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #3 Valid 5-2 4th

8th: 17th Marshua's River (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T/60' (P4, P3, DD)

Excellent group for this and Chad Brown 'first NA' invader Summer Moon looms large. Defending winner Parranda returns to Florida in debut for Clement and emergent owners China Horse Club. Strike Charmer and Pappascat were 1-2 in the Cardinal and reassemble for their 5yo seasonal bows. Fact that Davey Carroll ships over from Fair Grounds for this says Strike Charmer ready for good try and Simms' Pappascat always seems to provide value outrunning her odds. Scampering (Shug/Janney) and Skylander Girl from low profile CDN outfit not impossible..

Most Likely: #7 Summer Moon 7-2 6th
Next Best: #3 Parranda 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #9 Pappascat 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Scampering 6-1 4th

9th: OC/N2X, F&<-4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Pletcher murderous in these early season returns and Discreetly Elusive doesn't start out favored. Can stalk on Eddie Broome's rail runner More Than a Party who ran career best here 3+ weeks ago..

Most Likely: #6 Discreetly Elusive 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 More Than a Party 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #8 Boheme de Lavi 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Bureau de Change 8-1 3rd

10th: 62nd Fort Lauderdale (G2), 4+, 8.5f-T/60' (DD)

Deep, contentious group with what figures to be an honest pace opening up eligibility for honors to easily half the field, or more. Of the shorter prices, Mshawish (4-1), Lochte (6-1) and Mosler (8-1) appear the most likely with Za Approval (5-2) and Mutin (5-1) needing to work out trips from wide berths. Of the value players, Silver Freak and Grand Tito -- both 15-1 -- look worthwhile inclusions with Grand Tito figuring to get a better scenario under Lezcano. Tough test for your multi-race budget..

Best Value: #7 Grand Tito 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Mshawish 4-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Za Approval 5-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Lochte 6-1 5th

11th: MSW, 3yo-F, 5g-T/60' (Super Hi-5)

Challenging finale with 5 first time starters including well pedigreed Songbook and Killer Partner. There are 4 making surface changes as well and sharp-working Vandelita out of a Kingmambo mare has the look of stalk and finish upsetter..

Best Value: #7 Vandelita 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Presto Magic 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Songbook 5-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Wilshire Heir 12-1 10th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Killer Partner 7-2 2nd

P5 Grid:

7: 2 (A), 1-3 (B), 6 (C)
8: 3-7 (A), 9 (B), 2-4-6-8 (C)
9: 6 (A), 1 (B), 2-4-5-7-8 (C)
10: 3-7 (A), 2-11 (B), 1-6-12 (C)
11: 7 (A), 2 (B), 3-5-8-10 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $63
Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-5 (1,4/3/1/3,13,14/2) Paid $116.70 (5OF5)
$0.50 Pick-5 (1,4/3/1/3,13,14/2) Paid $3.40 (4OF5)

P4 Grid:

8: 3-7 (A), 9 (B), 2-4-6-8 (C)
9: 6 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-4-5-7 (C)
10: 3-7 (A), 2-11 (B), 1-6-12 (C)
11: 2-7 (A), 3-10 (B), 5-8 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $84
Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (3/1/3,13,14/2) Paid $90.15

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 15th Sham (G3), 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

People may be lining up to try and beat Calculator, but if he's healthy and close to his G1 stakes tries v. American Pharoah, he'll drown this group..

Most Likely: #7 Calculator 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #3 Rockinaten 7-2 7th
Best Value: #4 Unblunted 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Hero Ten All 4-1 6th

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Anytime Anyplace 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Kenjisstorm 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Battle of Evermore 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Ultra Sharp 12-1 5th

8th: 78th San Pasqual (G2), 4+, 8.5f (DD)

Hoppertunity has come back strong out of Clark win per National Turf and is certainly the one to beat. Plenty of options if you want to spread or stand against including players from dangerous Lobo (30-1 Baccelo) and Hess (12-1 Blue Tone)..

Most Likely: #2 Hoppertunity 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #5 Baccelo 30-1 11th
Next Best: #9 Blue Tone 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Quadrivium 6-1 7th

9th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-T (Super Hi-5)

Weakish looking $25k group. Gab Power SCR'D for me if he gets in. After that, it's a bunch of suspects..

#1 Compari a very late SCR..

Most Likely: #8 Snowday 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Sheer Talent 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Fighting On 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Urban Hunter 4-1 WON ($9.60)
Super/Hi-5: #10 Meydan Magic 6-1 4th

P4 Grid:

6: 7 (A), 3 (B), 4-8 (C)
7: 1-3-7 (A), 2-8-9 (B), 4-11 (C)
8: 2 (A), 5-9 (B), 1-10-11 (C)
9: 8-9 (A), 2-6 (B), 4-10 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $77
Simple (A+B): 2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/9/2/2) Paid $83.95

Good luck!
Steve