Derby Trail Forums - Red..Bid..Slew..Forego..Ruffian..Affirmed

Here are the numbers for the greats of the 70’s. The data represents the average runtime for all races for each horse except the grass races for Red and the walkover for Bid. The times for the actual average distances ran were adjusted to their 9fl equivalents using Beyer Par Charts data to extrapolate distance and time differentials. I did not use 2yo data because the results were highly dependant upon the time of the year the horse began racing. Early in the year 2yo races grade poorly as compared to late in the year 2yo races.

The Beyer figs were pulled from Belmont Park Par Charts and represent Raw Beyer numbers. It would be better to have adjusted Beyer figs for each race and then average those data to get a “par” Beyer figure for the horse. However this method of averaging raw Beyer figs on typically 5-10 races per horse per year should yield data points with a higher standard deviation, but the actual “average” should be approximately the same number as if track variant adjusted data were averaged.

There are a couple of pitfalls to this approach. Horses that raced mainly on the west coast during the 70’s enjoyed the benefit of tracks that were a bit faster than east coast tracks. Also, if a horse did not catch an even distribution of fast and slow tracks during a season, then the data becomes erroneous.

Secretariat was the fastest 3yo. I was surprised to see how well Ruffian fared. She was faster than the boys save Secretariat, at least up to distances of a mile. If one handicaps per the male/female angle, Ruffian might well be the most remarkable horse ever. As 4yos, Bid was the fastest of this group. Forego’s 4yo data comes from his 4yo season only. It’s interesting to note that his 5yo and 6yo seasons were 114 and 113 Beyers respectively, about the same as his 4yo season. He tailed off rather sharply as a 7yo and even more for his couple of races as an 8yo.

The presented data gives sprints and routes equal weight in the average number for each horse. If two turn races only were used, the results might be a bit different. I suspect Secretariat’s 3yo advantage might well increase because superior stamina was the edge he had over most horses. Perhaps I will look at this angle later.

Secretariat……age3……age4
Avg Dist…..….9.45fl….…NA
Avg time(s)…113.25…...NA
Adj to 9f(s).…107.43…..NA
Beyer………......115……...NA

Forego….……age3……age4
Avg Dist…….7.86fl…..8.96fl
Avg time(s)… 93.5……107.3
Adj to 9f(s)..108.74…107.9
Beyer……….....102……..112

Slew….………...age3…..age4
Avg Dist……....9.5fl….....9fl
Avg time(s)… 115.09….107.55
Adj to 9f(s).…108.56….107.55
Beyer…………...104……..113

Bid…..….……...age3……age4
Avg Dist……...9.46fl…...8.94fl
Avg time(s)… 114.39….105.85
Adj to 9f(s).…108.41….106.65
Beyer……….....105……..122

Affirmed….…...age3…….age4
Avg Dist………..9.5fl…....9.39fl
Avg time(s)…..114.90….112.5
Adj to 9f(s).….108.39….107.44
Beyer………....…105……..115

Ruffian….……..age3……age4
Avg Dist……...8.40fl…….NA
Avg time(s)… 100.12…..NA
Adj to 9f(s)..…108.07...NA
Beyer………...…109……...NA

NOTE: I just realized that the Beyer number may be misleading to some. The information is in the difference between horses. I used Belmont (par chart) which is one of the fastest and is a one turn 9fl track. To relate these great horses to the numbers that we see being published nowdays...add 10 points to each. It's just a matter of scale. The difference remains unchanged.